Strategy Zoo / S1503
PriceMomentum_V1503
ARCHIVEDhybridllmSimplified and regularized entry logic (momentum OR breakout + positive 50-day slope), added multi-rule volatility sizing (scale down in high vol), enforced trend gate UPTREND and bubble NORMAL to avoid bad regimes, reduced base position from 1.0 to 0.7, and improved exits with a larger fixed stop and deterioration signal (drawdown and MACD+5d weakness) to reduce drawdowns and overfitting.
Fitness
0.2304
Generation
69
Complexity
19
Created
2026-10-13
Lineage
Parents (1)
added entry filter: vol_chg < 1.2824; swapped indicator ret_20d -> cumret_252d
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# PriceMomentum_V1503 [hybrid]
if flat and ((ret_20d > 0.05 or ((close > sma_50 or breakout_20 > 0.0) and sma_50_slope > 0.0)) and vol_chg < 1.8 and cumret_252d > -0.15):
position = 0.7
if long and (ret_20d < -0.02 or drawdown < -0.08 or (macd_hist < 0.0 and ret_5d < -0.02)):
position = 0.0 # exit to cash
if regime.volatility == "HIGH_VOLATILITY": position *= 0.25
if regime.volatility == "MEDIUM_VOLATILITY": position *= 0.6
if regime.volatility == "LOW_VOLATILITY": position *= 1.0Backtest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | -1.6% | 21.0% | -4.9% | 1.9% |
| Total Return | -12.3% | 77.3% | -17.3% | 31.2% |
| Sharpe | -0.06 | 1.19 | -0.31 | 0.20 |
| Sortino | -0.05 | 1.49 | -0.28 | 0.20 |
| Calmar | -0.04 | 0.91 | -0.14 | 0.04 |
| Volatility | 13.3% | 17.3% | 13.5% | 14.3% |
| Max DD | -43.7% | -23.1% | -34.2% | -43.7% |
| Win Rate | 43.4% | 48.0% | 45.9% | 45.2% |
| Avg Win | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% |
| Avg Loss | -1.0% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.0% |
| Payoff | 1.18 | 1.81 | 1.03 | 1.36 |
| Expectancy | -0.1% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| Profit Factor | 0.91 | 1.67 | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| Trades | 348 | 175 | 209 | 732 |
| Avg Holding Days | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.7 |
| Turnover | 42.0 | 52.3 | 52.4 | 46.7 |
| Exposure | 15.6% | 17.5% | 12.2% | 15.2% |
Growth of $100
PriceMomentum_V1503 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V1503 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -8.0% | -1.27 | -11.9% | 41 |
| 2017 | -6.0% | -0.46 | -17.2% | 47 |
| 2018 | -4.6% | -0.75 | -7.5% | 51 |
| 2019 | -7.3% | -0.44 | -20.5% | 28 |
| 2020 | 95.1% | 3.44 | -6.2% | 60 |
| 2021 | 6.1% | 0.41 | -17.3% | 68 |
| 2022 | -15.8% | -1.37 | -20.3% | 46 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 278 | -1.7% | -0.16 | 6% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 2.8% | 0.15 | 20% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 22.4% | 1.09 | 15% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | -7.4% | -0.88 | 5% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 443 | 15.4% | 1.07 | 17% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | -35.5% | -2.28 | 11% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 816 | -6.4% | -0.52 | 11% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 298 | -4.2% | -0.43 | 11% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | -6.0% | -0.34 | 18% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | -4.0% | -0.73 | 3% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 11.7% | 0.64 | 28% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 88.7% | 4.60 | 26% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 1.0% | 0.08 | 6% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 7.0% | 0.49 | 27% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -13.1% | -1.01 | 13% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -8.8% | -0.76 | 13% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -11.2% | -1.20 | 9% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 8.0% | 0.45 | 28% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 1.7% | 0.56 | 2% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 37.7% | 1.91 | 25% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 92.9% | 4.46 | 19% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 22.9% | 1.68 | 7% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 11.4% | 0.67 | 30% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 24.1% | 1.20 | 19% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | -6.4% | -0.42 | 15% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -16.2% | -1.18 | 13% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 44.0% | 2.11 | 24% |
Trades (full period)
latest 100 of 732
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-12 | $382.70 | $378.03 | 1.30% | 2 | |
| 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $380.68 | $377.81 | 0.22% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-25 | 2026-09-28 | $372.11 | $357.45 | -1.22% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-24 | $380.12 | $377.94 | 0.09% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-21 | 2026-09-22 | $375.30 | $378.90 | 1.19% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-16 | 2026-09-17 | $358.08 | $366.20 | 0.09% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-14 | $365.44 | $358.97 | 0.13% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-09 | 2026-09-10 | $367.81 | $363.56 | -0.12% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-08 | $354.08 | $368.16 | -4.28% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-02 | 2026-09-03 | $357.01 | $376.37 | 0.04% | 2 | |
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-09-01 | $367.95 | $356.09 | 3.71% | 2 | |
| 2026-08-27 | 2026-08-28 | $354.81 | $348.75 | 1.68% | 2 | |
| 2026-08-25 | 2026-08-26 | $350.25 | $345.82 | 0.12% | 2 | |
| 2026-08-21 | 2026-08-24 | $362.86 | $348.95 | 3.45% | 2 | |
| 2026-07-13 | 2026-07-14 | $394.76 | $396.18 | -0.59% | 2 | |
| 2026-07-07 | 2026-07-08 | $402.90 | $394.06 | -0.74% | 2 | |
| 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-06 | $393.45 | $419.77 | -3.23% | 2 | |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-01 | $420.60 | $425.30 | 0.81% | 2 | |
| 2026-06-23 | 2026-06-24 | $381.61 | $375.53 | -2.51% | 2 | |
| 2026-06-16 | 2026-06-17 | $404.66 | $396.38 | -0.75% | 2 | |
| 2026-06-12 | 2026-06-15 | $406.43 | $411.15 | 0.68% | 2 | |
| 2026-06-09 | 2026-06-10 | $396.68 | $381.59 | -1.34% | 2 | |
| 2026-06-04 | 2026-06-05 | $418.45 | $391.00 | -1.01% | 2 | |
| 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-03 | $423.74 | $423.70 | 1.18% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-01 | $435.79 | $415.88 | -1.14% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-27 | 2026-05-28 | $440.36 | $442.10 | 0.95% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-22 | 2026-05-26 | $426.01 | $433.59 | 1.23% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-20 | 2026-05-21 | $417.26 | $417.85 | 2.14% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-19 | $409.99 | $404.11 | -2.17% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-14 | 2026-05-15 | $443.30 | $422.24 | -0.45% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-13 | $433.45 | $445.27 | -1.96% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-11 | $428.35 | $445.00 | 2.67% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-07 | $398.73 | $411.79 | 1.54% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-05 | $392.51 | $389.37 | 0.16% | 2 | |
| 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-30 | $372.80 | $381.63 | -0.74% | 2 | |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-21 | $392.50 | $386.42 | -0.93% | 2 | |
| 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-13 | $448.96 | $447.20 | 0.48% | 2 | |
| 2026-01-06 | 2026-01-07 | $432.96 | $431.41 | -3.04% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-01-02 | $449.72 | $438.07 | -0.86% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-30 | $451.45 | $454.43 | 2.21% | 14 | |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-09 | $454.53 | $445.17 | -1.72% | 4 | |
| 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-14 | $401.99 | $404.35 | -2.87% | 2 | |
| 2025-11-11 | 2025-11-12 | $439.62 | $430.60 | -0.61% | 2 | |
| 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-10 | $445.91 | $445.23 | -3.07% | 3 | |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-05 | $468.37 | $462.07 | -2.69% | 3 | |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-10-31 | $460.55 | $456.56 | -1.20% | 4 | |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-10-27 | $433.72 | $452.42 | -1.51% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-23 | $442.60 | $448.98 | -0.88% | 3 | |
| 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-20 | $439.31 | $447.43 | 0.95% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-15 | 2025-10-16 | $435.15 | $428.75 | 0.49% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-14 | $435.90 | $429.24 | 2.19% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-09 | 2025-10-10 | $435.54 | $413.49 | -0.39% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-06 | 2025-10-08 | $453.25 | $438.69 | 0.29% | 3 | |
| 2025-09-29 | 2025-10-03 | $443.21 | $429.83 | -0.98% | 5 | |
| 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-26 | $423.39 | $440.40 | -3.20% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-24 | $425.85 | $442.79 | -1.49% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-22 | $426.07 | $434.21 | 1.41% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-17 | 2025-09-18 | $425.86 | $416.85 | 0.56% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-16 | $410.04 | $421.62 | 2.35% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-11 | 2025-09-12 | $368.81 | $395.94 | 4.09% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-09 | 2025-09-10 | $346.97 | $347.79 | -0.02% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-05 | 2025-09-08 | $350.84 | $346.40 | 2.40% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-03 | 2025-09-04 | $334.09 | $338.53 | 0.86% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-29 | 2025-09-02 | $333.87 | $329.36 | -2.59% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-27 | 2025-08-28 | $349.60 | $345.98 | -0.55% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-26 | $346.60 | $351.67 | 1.22% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-15 | 2025-08-18 | $330.56 | $335.16 | -1.19% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-13 | 2025-08-14 | $339.38 | $335.58 | -0.44% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-12 | $339.03 | $340.84 | 1.85% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-08 | $322.27 | $329.65 | 0.38% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-05 | 2025-08-06 | $308.72 | $319.91 | -0.26% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-31 | 2025-08-01 | $308.27 | $302.63 | -1.50% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-30 | $321.20 | $319.04 | -0.65% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-24 | $332.56 | $305.30 | -0.05% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-22 | $328.49 | $332.11 | -0.23% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-01 | $317.66 | $300.71 | -0.36% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-26 | 2025-06-27 | $325.78 | $323.63 | -0.13% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-24 | 2025-06-25 | $340.47 | $327.55 | -0.45% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-20 | 2025-06-23 | $322.16 | $348.68 | -0.03% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-18 | $316.35 | $322.05 | -0.71% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-13 | 2025-06-16 | $325.31 | $329.13 | 0.30% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-11 | 2025-06-12 | $326.43 | $319.11 | -0.02% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-09 | 2025-06-10 | $308.58 | $326.09 | 0.76% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-04 | 2025-06-05 | $332.05 | $284.70 | -1.57% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-06-03 | $342.69 | $344.27 | -0.54% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-29 | 2025-05-30 | $358.43 | $346.46 | 0.10% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-27 | 2025-05-28 | $362.89 | $356.90 | 4.71% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-22 | 2025-05-23 | $341.04 | $339.34 | 0.72% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-20 | 2025-05-21 | $343.82 | $334.62 | 0.13% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-16 | 2025-05-19 | $349.98 | $342.09 | 0.33% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | $347.68 | $342.82 | 0.68% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-05-13 | $318.38 | $334.07 | 2.75% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-07 | 2025-05-08 | $276.22 | $284.82 | 0.02% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-05 | 2025-05-06 | $280.26 | $275.35 | -0.46% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-05-02 | $280.52 | $287.21 | -0.14% | 2 | |
| 2025-04-29 | 2025-04-30 | $292.03 | $282.16 | 0.34% | 2 | |
| 2025-04-15 | 2025-04-16 | $254.11 | $241.55 | 0.09% | 2 | |
| 2025-04-10 | 2025-04-11 | $252.40 | $252.31 | -1.31% | 2 | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-04-09 | $221.86 | $272.20 | -0.89% | 2 | |
| 2025-01-31 | 2025-02-03 | $404.60 | $383.68 | 0.37% | 2 |