Strategy Zoo / S1503

PriceMomentum_V1503

ARCHIVEDhybrid

llmSimplified and regularized entry logic (momentum OR breakout + positive 50-day slope), added multi-rule volatility sizing (scale down in high vol), enforced trend gate UPTREND and bubble NORMAL to avoid bad regimes, reduced base position from 1.0 to 0.7, and improved exits with a larger fixed stop and deterioration signal (drawdown and MACD+5d weakness) to reduce drawdowns and overfitting.

Fitness
0.2304
Generation
69
Complexity
19
Created
2026-10-13

Lineage

Parents (1)
PriceMomentum_V1442S1442 · gen 66ARCHIVEDllm

added entry filter: vol_chg < 1.2824; swapped indicator ret_20d -> cumret_252d

Children (0)
None

Strategy Logic (pseudocode)

# PriceMomentum_V1503  [hybrid]
if flat and ((ret_20d > 0.05 or ((close > sma_50 or breakout_20 > 0.0) and sma_50_slope > 0.0)) and vol_chg < 1.8 and cumret_252d > -0.15):
    position = 0.7
if long and (ret_20d < -0.02 or drawdown < -0.08 or (macd_hist < 0.0 and ret_5d < -0.02)):
    position = 0.0  # exit to cash
if regime.volatility == "HIGH_VOLATILITY": position *= 0.25
if regime.volatility == "MEDIUM_VOLATILITY": position *= 0.6
if regime.volatility == "LOW_VOLATILITY": position *= 1.0

Backtest Metrics

MetricTrainValidationHidden TestFull
CAGR-1.6%21.0%-4.9%1.9%
Total Return-12.3%77.3%-17.3%31.2%
Sharpe-0.061.19-0.310.20
Sortino-0.051.49-0.280.20
Calmar-0.040.91-0.140.04
Volatility13.3%17.3%13.5%14.3%
Max DD-43.7%-23.1%-34.2%-43.7%
Win Rate43.4%48.0%45.9%45.2%
Avg Win1.1%2.0%1.2%1.4%
Avg Loss-1.0%-1.1%-1.2%-1.0%
Payoff1.181.811.031.36
Expectancy-0.1%0.4%-0.1%0.1%
Profit Factor0.911.670.881.12
Trades348175209732
Avg Holding Days2.92.82.12.7
Turnover42.052.352.446.7
Exposure15.6%17.5%12.2%15.2%

Growth of $100

PriceMomentum_V1503 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V1503 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.

Walk-Forward Years

year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
YearCAGRSharpeMax DDTrades
2016-8.0%-1.27-11.9%41
2017-6.0%-0.46-17.2%47
2018-4.6%-0.75-7.5%51
2019-7.3%-0.44-20.5%28
202095.1%3.44-6.2%60
20216.1%0.41-17.3%68
2022-15.8%-1.37-20.3%46

A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.

Regime Performance

PeriodRegimeDaysAnn. ReturnSharpeExposure
hidden testDOWNTREND278-1.7%-0.166%
hidden testEXPENSIVE832.8%0.1520%
hidden testEXTREME4822.4%1.0915%
hidden testHIGH VOLATILITY254-7.4%-0.885%
hidden testLOW VOLATILITY44315.4%1.0717%
hidden testMEDIUM VOLATILITY250-35.5%-2.2811%
hidden testNORMAL816-6.4%-0.5211%
hidden testSIDEWAYS298-4.2%-0.4311%
hidden testUPTREND371-6.0%-0.3418%
trainDOWNTREND518-4.0%-0.733%
trainEXPENSIVE31111.7%0.6428%
trainEXTREME10088.7%4.6026%
trainHIGH VOLATILITY6991.0%0.086%
trainLOW VOLATILITY7457.0%0.4927%
trainMEDIUM VOLATILITY568-13.1%-1.0113%
trainNORMAL1,601-8.8%-0.7613%
trainSIDEWAYS592-11.2%-1.209%
trainUPTREND9028.0%0.4528%
validationDOWNTREND1251.7%0.562%
validationEXPENSIVE13837.7%1.9125%
validationEXTREME14492.9%4.4619%
validationHIGH VOLATILITY25822.9%1.687%
validationLOW VOLATILITY18311.4%0.6730%
validationMEDIUM VOLATILITY31524.1%1.2019%
validationNORMAL474-6.4%-0.4215%
validationSIDEWAYS206-16.2%-1.1813%
validationUPTREND42544.0%2.1124%

Trades (full period)

latest 100 of 732
EntryExitEntry PxExit PxReturnDays
2026-10-092026-10-12$382.70$378.031.30%2
2026-10-062026-10-07$380.68$377.810.22%2
2026-09-252026-09-28$372.11$357.45-1.22%2
2026-09-232026-09-24$380.12$377.940.09%2
2026-09-212026-09-22$375.30$378.901.19%2
2026-09-162026-09-17$358.08$366.200.09%2
2026-09-112026-09-14$365.44$358.970.13%2
2026-09-092026-09-10$367.81$363.56-0.12%2
2026-09-042026-09-08$354.08$368.16-4.28%2
2026-09-022026-09-03$357.01$376.370.04%2
2026-08-312026-09-01$367.95$356.093.71%2
2026-08-272026-08-28$354.81$348.751.68%2
2026-08-252026-08-26$350.25$345.820.12%2
2026-08-212026-08-24$362.86$348.953.45%2
2026-07-132026-07-14$394.76$396.18-0.59%2
2026-07-072026-07-08$402.90$394.06-0.74%2
2026-07-022026-07-06$393.45$419.77-3.23%2
2026-06-302026-07-01$420.60$425.300.81%2
2026-06-232026-06-24$381.61$375.53-2.51%2
2026-06-162026-06-17$404.66$396.38-0.75%2
2026-06-122026-06-15$406.43$411.150.68%2
2026-06-092026-06-10$396.68$381.59-1.34%2
2026-06-042026-06-05$418.45$391.00-1.01%2
2026-06-022026-06-03$423.74$423.701.18%2
2026-05-292026-06-01$435.79$415.88-1.14%2
2026-05-272026-05-28$440.36$442.100.95%2
2026-05-222026-05-26$426.01$433.591.23%2
2026-05-202026-05-21$417.26$417.852.14%2
2026-05-182026-05-19$409.99$404.11-2.17%2
2026-05-142026-05-15$443.30$422.24-0.45%2
2026-05-122026-05-13$433.45$445.27-1.96%2
2026-05-082026-05-11$428.35$445.002.67%2
2026-05-062026-05-07$398.73$411.791.54%2
2026-05-042026-05-05$392.51$389.370.16%2
2026-04-292026-04-30$372.80$381.63-0.74%2
2026-04-202026-04-21$392.50$386.42-0.93%2
2026-01-122026-01-13$448.96$447.200.48%2
2026-01-062026-01-07$432.96$431.41-3.04%2
2025-12-312026-01-02$449.72$438.07-0.86%2
2025-12-102025-12-30$451.45$454.432.21%14
2025-12-042025-12-09$454.53$445.17-1.72%4
2025-11-132025-11-14$401.99$404.35-2.87%2
2025-11-112025-11-12$439.62$430.60-0.61%2
2025-11-062025-11-10$445.91$445.23-3.07%3
2025-11-032025-11-05$468.37$462.07-2.69%3
2025-10-282025-10-31$460.55$456.56-1.20%4
2025-10-242025-10-27$433.72$452.42-1.51%2
2025-10-212025-10-23$442.60$448.98-0.88%3
2025-10-172025-10-20$439.31$447.430.95%2
2025-10-152025-10-16$435.15$428.750.49%2
2025-10-132025-10-14$435.90$429.242.19%2
2025-10-092025-10-10$435.54$413.49-0.39%2
2025-10-062025-10-08$453.25$438.690.29%3
2025-09-292025-10-03$443.21$429.83-0.98%5
2025-09-252025-09-26$423.39$440.40-3.20%2
2025-09-232025-09-24$425.85$442.79-1.49%2
2025-09-192025-09-22$426.07$434.211.41%2
2025-09-172025-09-18$425.86$416.850.56%2
2025-09-152025-09-16$410.04$421.622.35%2
2025-09-112025-09-12$368.81$395.944.09%2
2025-09-092025-09-10$346.97$347.79-0.02%2
2025-09-052025-09-08$350.84$346.402.40%2
2025-09-032025-09-04$334.09$338.530.86%2
2025-08-292025-09-02$333.87$329.36-2.59%2
2025-08-272025-08-28$349.60$345.98-0.55%2
2025-08-252025-08-26$346.60$351.671.22%2
2025-08-152025-08-18$330.56$335.16-1.19%2
2025-08-132025-08-14$339.38$335.58-0.44%2
2025-08-112025-08-12$339.03$340.841.85%2
2025-08-072025-08-08$322.27$329.650.38%2
2025-08-052025-08-06$308.72$319.91-0.26%2
2025-07-312025-08-01$308.27$302.63-1.50%2
2025-07-292025-07-30$321.20$319.04-0.65%2
2025-07-232025-07-24$332.56$305.30-0.05%2
2025-07-212025-07-22$328.49$332.11-0.23%2
2025-06-302025-07-01$317.66$300.71-0.36%2
2025-06-262025-06-27$325.78$323.63-0.13%2
2025-06-242025-06-25$340.47$327.55-0.45%2
2025-06-202025-06-23$322.16$348.68-0.03%2
2025-06-172025-06-18$316.35$322.05-0.71%2
2025-06-132025-06-16$325.31$329.130.30%2
2025-06-112025-06-12$326.43$319.11-0.02%2
2025-06-092025-06-10$308.58$326.090.76%2
2025-06-042025-06-05$332.05$284.70-1.57%2
2025-06-022025-06-03$342.69$344.27-0.54%2
2025-05-292025-05-30$358.43$346.460.10%2
2025-05-272025-05-28$362.89$356.904.71%2
2025-05-222025-05-23$341.04$339.340.72%2
2025-05-202025-05-21$343.82$334.620.13%2
2025-05-162025-05-19$349.98$342.090.33%2
2025-05-142025-05-15$347.68$342.820.68%2
2025-05-122025-05-13$318.38$334.072.75%2
2025-05-072025-05-08$276.22$284.820.02%2
2025-05-052025-05-06$280.26$275.35-0.46%2
2025-05-012025-05-02$280.52$287.21-0.14%2
2025-04-292025-04-30$292.03$282.160.34%2
2025-04-152025-04-16$254.11$241.550.09%2
2025-04-102025-04-11$252.40$252.31-1.31%2
2025-04-082025-04-09$221.86$272.20-0.89%2
2025-01-312025-02-03$404.60$383.680.37%2