Strategy Zoo / S1341

PriceMomentum_V1341

ARCHIVEDhybrid

structuralreplaced exit rule with: cumret_252d > -0.3576

Fitness
0.1914
Generation
61
Complexity
20
Created
2026-10-08

Lineage

Parents (1)
PriceMomentum_V1215S1215 · gen 56ARCHIVEDstructural

entry from PriceMomentum_V1129, exit from LongTermTrend_V1154

Children (0)
None

Strategy Logic (pseudocode)

# PriceMomentum_V1341  [hybrid]
if flat and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.0923) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) or ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.1225 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.05)):
    position = 1.0
if long and cumret_252d > -0.3576:
    position = 0.0  # exit to cash

Backtest Metrics

MetricTrainValidationHidden TestFull
CAGR-3.1%24.4%-0.8%2.7%
Total Return-22.4%92.7%-3.1%48.7%
Sharpe-0.040.810.070.23
Sortino-0.030.810.060.21
Calmar-0.060.74-0.030.05
Volatility22.1%34.3%22.1%25.1%
Max DD-51.4%-33.0%-27.9%-51.4%
Win Rate47.2%54.9%50.7%50.1%
Avg Win2.3%3.1%2.8%2.6%
Avg Loss-2.1%-2.8%-2.8%-2.4%
Payoff1.101.101.001.10
Expectancy-0.0%0.4%0.0%0.1%
Profit Factor0.981.341.031.10
Trades373195148717
Avg Holding Days2.02.02.02.0
Turnover93.4130.079.097.4
Exposure18.5%25.8%15.7%19.3%

Growth of $100

PriceMomentum_V1341 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V1341 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.

Walk-Forward Years

year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
YearCAGRSharpeMax DDTrades
20167.0%0.65-9.7%27
2017-6.7%-0.29-17.3%62
2018-10.3%-0.66-17.0%37
2019-8.0%-0.43-11.0%27
2020143.7%2.06-33.0%94
2021-14.0%-0.46-25.8%69
2022-8.4%-0.33-15.2%31

A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.

Regime Performance

PeriodRegimeDaysAnn. ReturnSharpeExposure
hidden testDOWNTREND278-22.6%-1.398%
hidden testEXPENSIVE8356.0%1.8031%
hidden testEXTREME4892.7%1.9531%
hidden testHIGH VOLATILITY2542.3%0.0915%
hidden testLOW VOLATILITY4406.3%0.3616%
hidden testMEDIUM VOLATILITY250-7.5%-0.3215%
hidden testNORMAL813-9.4%-0.5113%
hidden testSIDEWAYS295-1.0%-0.0614%
hidden testUPTREND37121.8%0.7422%
trainDOWNTREND5181.8%0.333%
trainEXPENSIVE311-3.6%-0.1334%
trainEXTREME100187.3%3.1547%
trainHIGH VOLATILITY69919.4%0.6818%
trainLOW VOLATILITY745-2.8%-0.1921%
trainMEDIUM VOLATILITY568-23.0%-1.1015%
trainNORMAL1,601-12.0%-0.7814%
trainSIDEWAYS592-15.8%-1.0216%
trainUPTREND9027.6%0.2529%
validationDOWNTREND1259.6%1.055%
validationEXPENSIVE13817.6%0.4529%
validationEXTREME144159.0%2.8647%
validationHIGH VOLATILITY25848.0%1.0125%
validationLOW VOLATILITY1839.4%0.6824%
validationMEDIUM VOLATILITY31522.0%0.7428%
validationNORMAL474-9.1%-0.4219%
validationSIDEWAYS206-3.2%-0.1419%
validationUPTREND42548.2%1.1335%

Trades (full period)

latest 100 of 717
EntryExitEntry PxExit PxReturnDays
2026-09-252026-09-28$372.11$357.45-1.74%2
2026-09-112026-09-14$365.44$358.970.32%2
2026-09-092026-09-10$367.81$363.56-0.29%2
2026-09-032026-09-04$376.37$354.085.22%2
2026-09-012026-09-02$356.09$357.01-3.42%2
2026-08-282026-08-31$348.75$367.95-1.91%2
2026-08-262026-08-27$345.82$354.81-1.46%2
2026-08-242026-08-25$348.95$350.25-4.03%2
2026-06-032026-06-04$423.70$418.45-0.21%2
2026-06-012026-06-02$415.88$423.74-4.76%2
2026-05-282026-05-29$442.10$435.790.19%2
2026-05-262026-05-27$433.59$440.361.58%2
2026-05-212026-05-22$417.85$426.01-0.06%2
2026-05-152026-05-18$422.24$409.99-4.95%2
2026-05-132026-05-14$445.27$443.302.52%2
2026-05-112026-05-12$445.00$433.453.68%2
2026-05-072026-05-08$411.79$428.353.07%2
2026-05-052026-05-06$389.37$398.73-1.00%2
2026-04-202026-04-21$392.50$386.42-2.22%2
2025-12-302025-12-31$454.43$449.72-1.33%2
2025-12-262025-12-29$475.19$459.64-2.30%2
2025-12-232025-12-24$485.56$485.40-0.85%2
2025-12-192025-12-22$481.20$488.73-0.65%2
2025-12-172025-12-18$467.26$483.37-4.81%2
2025-12-152025-12-16$475.31$489.883.36%2
2025-11-062025-11-07$445.91$429.52-3.69%2
2025-11-032025-11-04$468.37$444.262.38%2
2025-10-242025-10-27$433.72$452.42-3.60%2
2025-10-142025-10-15$429.24$435.15-1.73%2
2025-10-102025-10-13$413.49$435.90-5.26%2
2025-10-082025-10-09$438.69$435.541.09%2
2025-10-062025-10-07$453.25$433.095.24%2
2025-10-022025-10-03$436.00$429.83-5.30%2
2025-09-302025-10-01$444.72$459.460.14%2
2025-09-262025-09-29$440.40$443.213.81%2
2025-09-242025-09-25$442.79$423.393.77%2
2025-09-222025-09-23$434.21$425.851.71%2
2025-09-182025-09-19$416.85$426.07-2.31%2
2025-09-162025-09-17$421.62$425.862.62%2
2025-09-122025-09-15$395.94$410.047.15%2
2025-09-082025-09-09$346.40$346.97-1.46%2
2025-09-042025-09-05$338.53$350.841.13%2
2025-08-292025-09-02$333.87$329.36-3.70%2
2025-08-272025-08-28$349.60$345.98-0.79%2
2025-08-252025-08-26$346.60$351.671.74%2
2025-08-152025-08-18$330.56$335.16-1.69%2
2025-08-132025-08-14$339.38$335.58-0.63%2
2025-08-112025-08-12$339.03$340.842.64%2
2025-06-042025-06-05$332.05$284.70-3.75%2
2025-06-022025-06-03$342.69$344.27-1.29%2
2025-05-292025-05-30$358.43$346.460.23%2
2025-05-272025-05-28$362.89$356.906.73%2
2025-05-222025-05-23$341.04$339.341.72%2
2025-05-202025-05-21$343.82$334.620.31%2
2025-05-162025-05-19$349.98$342.091.89%2
2025-05-142025-05-15$347.68$342.823.87%2
2025-05-122025-05-13$318.38$334.076.54%2
2025-05-082025-05-09$284.82$298.262.91%2
2025-05-062025-05-07$275.35$276.22-1.95%2
2025-04-302025-05-01$282.16$280.52-3.58%2
2025-04-162025-04-17$241.55$241.37-5.14%2
2025-04-102025-04-11$252.40$252.31-7.47%2
2025-01-072025-01-08$394.36$394.94-4.26%2
2025-01-032025-01-06$410.44$411.058.01%2
2024-12-312025-01-02$403.84$379.28-3.45%2
2024-12-272024-12-30$431.66$417.41-5.14%2
2024-12-242024-12-26$462.28$454.137.15%2
2024-12-202024-12-23$421.06$430.60-3.66%2
2024-12-182024-12-19$440.13$436.17-8.47%2
2024-12-162024-12-17$463.02$479.865.94%2
2024-12-122024-12-13$418.10$436.23-1.77%2
2024-12-102024-12-11$400.99$424.772.67%2
2024-12-062024-12-09$389.22$389.795.13%2
2024-12-042024-12-05$357.93$369.491.65%2
2024-12-022024-12-03$357.09$351.423.25%2
2024-11-272024-11-29$332.89$345.16-1.78%2
2024-11-252024-11-26$338.59$338.23-4.16%2
2024-11-212024-11-22$339.64$352.56-0.90%2
2024-11-192024-11-20$346.00$342.031.94%2
2024-11-152024-11-18$320.72$338.742.86%2
2024-11-132024-11-14$330.24$311.180.33%2
2024-11-112024-11-12$350.00$328.498.75%2
2024-11-072024-11-08$296.91$321.222.70%2
2024-10-092024-10-10$241.05$238.77-1.61%2
2024-10-072024-10-08$240.83$244.50-3.90%2
2024-10-022024-10-03$249.02$240.66-3.68%2
2024-09-302024-10-01$261.63$258.020.25%2
2024-09-262024-09-27$254.22$260.46-1.29%2
2024-09-242024-09-25$254.27$257.021.51%2
2024-09-202024-09-23$238.25$250.00-2.52%2
2024-09-132024-09-16$230.29$226.780.01%2
2024-09-112024-09-12$228.13$229.810.67%2
2024-09-052024-09-06$230.17$210.734.70%2
2024-07-292024-07-30$232.10$222.625.39%2
2024-07-252024-07-26$220.25$219.801.77%2
2024-07-232024-07-24$246.38$215.99-2.24%2
2024-07-192024-07-22$239.20$251.51-4.22%2
2024-07-172024-07-18$248.50$249.23-3.34%2
2024-07-152024-07-16$252.64$256.561.57%2
2024-07-112024-07-12$241.03$248.23-8.64%2