Strategy Zoo / S1215

PriceMomentum_V1215

ARCHIVEDhybrid

crossoverentry from PriceMomentum_V1129, exit from LongTermTrend_V1154

Fitness
0.7240
Generation
56
Complexity
20
Created
2026-10-07

Lineage

Parents (2)
PriceMomentum_V1129S1129 · gen 51ARCHIVEDcrossover

changed ret_20d threshold 0.05 -> 0.1225

LongTermTrend_V1154S1154 · gen 53ARCHIVEDcrossover

entry from LongTermTrend_V1146, exit from PriceMomentum_V0690

Children (6)
PriceMomentum_V1263S1263 · gen 58ARCHIVEDllm
PriceMomentum_V1271S1271 · gen 58REJECTEDstructural
PriceMomentum_V1288S1288 · gen 59ARCHIVEDllm
PriceMomentum_V1298S1298 · gen 59REJECTEDstructural
PriceMomentum_V1331S1331 · gen 61ARCHIVEDllm
PriceMomentum_V1341S1341 · gen 61ARCHIVEDstructural

Strategy Logic (pseudocode)

# PriceMomentum_V1215  [hybrid]
if flat and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.0923) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) or ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.1225 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.05)):
    position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.0017:
    position = 0.0  # exit to cash

Backtest Metrics

MetricTrainValidationHidden TestFull
CAGR27.0%134.4%10.5%39.2%
Total Return574.1%1187.2%45.5%12899.6%
Sharpe0.901.950.471.08
Sortino0.952.100.421.09
Calmar0.463.980.300.67
Volatility32.3%50.1%33.3%36.9%
Max DD-58.8%-33.7%-35.5%-58.8%
Win Rate39.0%62.5%30.0%41.6%
Avg Win24.0%39.3%22.2%32.2%
Avg Loss-5.5%-6.2%-5.3%-5.6%
Payoff4.346.294.155.77
Expectancy6.0%22.2%2.9%10.1%
Profit Factor2.7810.001.784.10
Trades41162077
Avg Holding Days21.226.518.922.3
Turnover10.410.710.710.5
Exposure43.6%54.0%37.9%44.3%

Growth of $100

PriceMomentum_V1215 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V1215 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.

Walk-Forward Years

year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
YearCAGRSharpeMax DDTrades
201625.1%1.36-15.9%3
20173.6%0.27-27.4%7
2018-32.1%-1.29-35.1%8
201949.4%1.44-20.0%2
2020577.3%3.01-33.7%6
202183.2%1.83-17.6%5
2022-0.6%0.12-21.6%5

A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.

Regime Performance

PeriodRegimeDaysAnn. ReturnSharpeExposure
hidden testDOWNTREND278-31.4%-1.4423%
hidden testEXPENSIVE8362.6%1.3867%
hidden testEXTREME48183.9%3.2767%
hidden testHIGH VOLATILITY254-3.5%-0.0837%
hidden testLOW VOLATILITY43955.8%2.2237%
hidden testMEDIUM VOLATILITY250-35.5%-1.0240%
hidden testNORMAL8120.9%0.0333%
hidden testSIDEWAYS2946.1%0.2333%
hidden testUPTREND37158.4%1.3353%
trainDOWNTREND5184.4%0.3811%
trainEXPENSIVE31155.0%1.4073%
trainEXTREME100403.3%5.4797%
trainHIGH VOLATILITY69957.5%1.3639%
trainLOW VOLATILITY74532.6%1.4152%
trainMEDIUM VOLATILITY568-10.7%-0.3838%
trainNORMAL1,6010.6%0.0235%
trainSIDEWAYS592-8.1%-0.3237%
trainUPTREND90267.5%1.5967%
validationDOWNTREND12545.2%2.0812%
validationEXPENSIVE13877.3%1.4458%
validationEXTREME144347.4%4.1793%
validationHIGH VOLATILITY258100.2%1.4850%
validationLOW VOLATILITY18357.7%2.3458%
validationMEDIUM VOLATILITY315119.1%2.7055%
validationNORMAL47428.0%0.8941%
validationSIDEWAYS2068.5%0.2741%
validationUPTREND425156.6%2.5373%

Trades (full period)

77 trades
EntryExitEntry PxExit PxReturnDays
2026-08-242026-09-30$348.95$354.81-2.96%27
2026-05-052026-06-08$389.37$408.95-0.58%24
2026-04-202026-04-24$392.50$376.30-6.90%5
2025-12-152026-01-05$475.31$451.67-4.74%14
2025-11-032025-11-13$468.37$401.99-5.87%9
2025-10-242025-10-27$433.72$452.42-3.60%2
2025-08-252025-10-23$346.60$448.9828.85%43
2025-08-112025-08-20$339.03$323.90-0.30%8
2025-05-062025-06-12$275.35$319.1116.24%27
2025-04-302025-05-02$282.16$287.21-4.14%3
2025-04-102025-04-22$252.40$237.97-16.60%8
2024-11-072025-01-13$296.91$403.3136.54%44
2024-09-052024-10-14$230.17$219.16-0.93%28
2024-06-272024-08-02$197.42$207.6710.21%26
2024-05-152024-05-29$173.99$176.19-0.65%10
2024-04-302024-05-10$183.28$168.47-11.56%9
2023-11-172024-01-05$234.30$237.491.65%33
2023-09-122023-09-28$267.48$246.38-12.27%13
2023-07-262023-07-28$264.35$266.44-3.80%3
2023-05-242023-07-24$182.90$269.0639.69%41
2022-07-142022-08-29$238.31$284.8221.29%33
2022-06-242022-06-29$245.71$228.49-1.22%4
2022-03-222022-04-21$331.33$336.265.88%22
2022-01-122022-01-24$368.74$310.00-11.49%8
2022-01-042022-01-07$383.20$342.32-11.44%4
2021-08-042021-12-01$236.97$365.0060.97%84
2021-06-142021-07-23$205.90$214.466.24%29
2021-04-142021-05-04$244.08$224.53-10.34%15
2021-04-052021-04-08$230.35$227.931.19%4
2020-11-192021-02-09$166.42$283.1577.07%55
2020-10-222020-10-27$141.93$141.56-0.76%4
2020-10-162020-10-19$146.56$143.61-2.25%2
2020-10-072020-10-14$141.77$153.777.68%6
2020-08-142020-09-24$110.05$129.2617.09%29
2020-04-142020-08-10$47.33$94.57122.74%83
2019-10-232020-03-04$16.98$49.97191.11%91
2019-09-132019-10-10$16.35$16.32-0.74%20
2019-07-162019-08-02$16.83$15.62-7.94%14
2018-10-292018-12-19$22.32$22.201.65%36
2018-08-272018-08-31$21.28$20.11-6.28%5
2018-08-032018-08-20$23.21$20.56-12.77%12
2018-06-122018-07-06$22.85$20.59-7.09%18
2018-04-272018-05-04$19.61$19.61-0.56%6
2018-03-132018-03-19$22.79$20.90-7.18%5
2018-01-222018-02-07$23.44$23.00-4.78%13
2018-01-092018-01-12$22.25$22.410.26%4
2017-12-122017-12-28$22.74$21.02-5.44%12
2017-09-182017-09-25$25.67$23.00-7.75%6
2017-08-252017-09-05$23.20$23.310.50%7
2017-08-042017-08-22$23.79$22.76-2.85%13
2017-06-012017-07-06$22.69$20.59-4.27%25
2017-03-282017-05-24$18.50$20.6812.23%41
2016-12-202017-02-28$13.92$16.6721.22%47
2016-07-222016-08-16$14.82$14.912.10%18
2016-06-082016-06-21$15.70$14.64-5.63%10
2016-03-042016-05-03$13.40$15.4923.29%42
2015-12-172015-12-29$15.56$15.81-2.57%8
2015-11-302015-12-07$15.35$15.41-0.73%6
2015-09-222015-09-30$17.40$16.56-6.83%7
2015-08-062015-08-07$16.41$16.17-9.08%2
2015-07-212015-07-27$17.78$16.87-6.16%5
2015-04-132015-07-09$13.99$17.1920.65%62
2014-11-112014-12-02$16.74$15.43-4.44%15
2014-08-052014-09-16$15.90$17.386.22%30
2014-06-092014-07-16$13.69$14.485.27%27
2014-05-282014-06-03$14.02$13.66-3.44%5
2014-01-152014-03-26$10.94$14.2036.42%49
2013-12-132014-01-14$9.84$10.75-5.70%21
2013-07-012013-10-22$7.81$11.4460.46%80
2013-03-262013-06-26$2.52$7.05172.31%65
2013-01-282013-02-22$2.54$2.41-5.11%19
2012-11-062012-12-31$2.08$2.265.25%38
2012-08-242012-09-05$1.97$1.86-8.62%8
2012-06-282012-07-20$2.09$2.120.77%16
2012-06-192012-06-27$2.14$2.13-0.92%7
2012-03-272012-04-10$2.53$2.16-11.54%10
2012-02-022012-03-23$2.02$2.2716.06%36