Strategy Zoo / S1281
PriceMomentum_V1281
ARCHIVEDhybridcrossoverlogic of PriceMomentum_V1238 with risk overlay of PriceMomentum_V1125
Fitness
0.6874
Generation
59
Complexity
22
Created
2026-10-08
Lineage
Parents (2)
added entry filter: vol_chg < 1.2824; swapped indicator vol_chg -> rel_volume
entry from PriceMomentum_V0936, exit from LongTermTrend_V1216
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# PriceMomentum_V1281 [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
require regime.bubble in ['EXPENSIVE', 'EXTREME']
if flat and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.0923) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) or ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.05)):
position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.0017:
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 22.0% | 102.4% | 7.4% | 31.2% |
| Total Return | 387.9% | 729.6% | 30.6% | 5344.1% |
| Sharpe | 0.98 | 1.86 | 0.49 | 1.13 |
| Sortino | 0.69 | 1.41 | 0.27 | 0.73 |
| Calmar | 0.91 | 3.04 | 0.34 | 0.92 |
| Volatility | 22.7% | 42.8% | 17.7% | 27.1% |
| Max DD | -24.2% | -33.7% | -21.7% | -33.7% |
| Win Rate | 50.0% | 75.0% | 40.0% | 56.0% |
| Avg Win | 40.0% | 46.3% | 23.6% | 41.9% |
| Avg Loss | -3.3% | -1.5% | -4.7% | -3.3% |
| Payoff | 10.00 | 10.00 | 4.99 | 10.00 |
| Expectancy | 18.4% | 34.4% | 6.6% | 22.0% |
| Profit Factor | 10.00 | 10.00 | 3.33 | 10.00 |
| Trades | 12 | 8 | 5 | 25 |
| Avg Holding Days | 24.8 | 26.4 | 17.6 | 24.3 |
| Turnover | 3.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 |
| Exposure | 14.7% | 26.9% | 8.8% | 15.7% |
Growth of $100
PriceMomentum_V1281 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V1281 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2017 | -9.0% | -0.27 | -23.6% | 7 |
| 2018 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2019 | 9.5% | 1.31 | -3.8% | 0 |
| 2020 | 573.6% | 3.05 | -33.7% | 7 |
| 2021 | 18.1% | 0.99 | -10.1% | 1 |
| 2022 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 278 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 9.4% | 0.23 | 59% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 183.9% | 3.27 | 67% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | 22.8% | 0.92 | 14% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 440 | 18.7% | 2.10 | 4% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | -23.2% | -1.13 | 13% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 813 | -1.7% | -0.79 | 0% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 295 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 22.1% | 0.78 | 22% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 23.9% | 0.64 | 62% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 403.3% | 5.47 | 97% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 47.1% | 1.43 | 20% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 11.0% | 1.02 | 11% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | 6.7% | 0.36 | 13% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -1.8% | -0.79 | 0% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 49.8% | 1.47 | 33% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 77.3% | 1.44 | 58% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 344.5% | 4.26 | 85% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 114.1% | 1.82 | 37% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 19.5% | 1.49 | 8% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 86.5% | 2.65 | 30% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | 4.9% | 1.08 | 0% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 139.4% | 2.46 | 48% |
Trades (full period)
25 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-13 | $468.37 | $401.99 | -5.87% | 9 | |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-10-27 | $433.72 | $452.42 | -3.60% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-10-23 | $410.04 | $448.98 | 10.65% | 29 | |
| 2025-05-28 | 2025-06-02 | $356.90 | $342.69 | -4.72% | 4 | |
| 2024-11-07 | 2025-01-13 | $296.91 | $403.31 | 36.54% | 44 | |
| 2020-11-19 | 2021-02-09 | $166.42 | $283.15 | 77.07% | 55 | |
| 2020-10-22 | 2020-10-27 | $141.93 | $141.56 | -0.76% | 4 | |
| 2020-10-16 | 2020-10-19 | $146.56 | $143.61 | -2.25% | 2 | |
| 2020-10-07 | 2020-10-14 | $141.77 | $153.77 | 7.68% | 6 | |
| 2020-08-14 | 2020-09-24 | $110.05 | $129.26 | 17.09% | 29 | |
| 2020-05-15 | 2020-08-10 | $53.28 | $94.57 | 80.47% | 60 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-04-30 | $47.33 | $52.13 | 22.74% | 13 | |
| 2019-12-17 | 2020-03-04 | $25.27 | $49.97 | 95.02% | 53 | |
| 2017-09-18 | 2017-09-25 | $25.67 | $23.00 | -7.75% | 6 | |
| 2017-08-04 | 2017-08-22 | $23.79 | $22.76 | -2.85% | 13 | |
| 2017-06-01 | 2017-07-06 | $22.69 | $20.59 | -4.27% | 25 | |
| 2017-04-07 | 2017-05-24 | $20.17 | $20.68 | 1.53% | 33 | |
| 2017-03-28 | 2017-04-06 | $18.50 | $19.91 | 8.95% | 8 | |
| 2017-02-03 | 2017-02-28 | $16.76 | $16.67 | -2.31% | 17 | |
| 2017-01-25 | 2017-01-31 | $16.96 | $16.80 | -1.76% | 5 | |
| 2014-01-24 | 2014-03-26 | $11.64 | $14.20 | 21.21% | 43 | |
| 2013-07-01 | 2013-10-22 | $7.81 | $11.44 | 60.46% | 80 | |
| 2013-04-11 | 2013-06-26 | $2.91 | $7.05 | 144.15% | 54 | |
| 2013-02-14 | 2013-02-15 | $2.55 | $2.47 | -0.67% | 2 | |
| 2013-01-28 | 2013-02-12 | $2.54 | $2.53 | 3.69% | 12 |