Strategy Zoo / S1206

PriceMomentum_V1206

ARCHIVEDhybrid

structuralreduce exposure to 68% during MEDIUM_VOLATILITY

Fitness
0.6594
Generation
55
Complexity
21
Created
2026-10-06

Lineage

Parents (1)
PriceMomentum_V0936S0936 · gen 43ARCHIVEDstructural

logic of PriceMomentum_V0624 with risk overlay of LongTermTrend_V0521

Children (0)
None

Strategy Logic (pseudocode)

# PriceMomentum_V1206  [hybrid]
if flat and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.0923) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) or ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.05)):
    position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.006:
    position = 0.0  # exit to cash
if regime.volatility == "MEDIUM_VOLATILITY": position *= 0.68

Backtest Metrics

MetricTrainValidationHidden TestFull
CAGR27.7%102.8%13.5%36.4%
Total Return602.9%733.8%60.5%9581.2%
Sharpe0.941.780.561.07
Sortino1.021.840.511.09
Calmar0.483.040.390.63
Volatility30.9%45.7%31.0%34.5%
Max DD-58.0%-33.8%-34.6%-58.0%
Win Rate35.1%66.7%30.0%40.3%
Avg Win29.1%32.6%22.8%32.8%
Avg Loss-5.2%-7.5%-4.9%-5.4%
Payoff5.554.344.656.09
Expectancy6.8%19.2%3.4%10.0%
Profit Factor3.018.681.994.11
Trades37152072
Avg Holding Days24.128.719.124.4
Turnover11.410.912.211.4
Exposure41.4%47.7%35.0%41.1%

Growth of $100

PriceMomentum_V1206 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V1206 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.

Walk-Forward Years

year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
YearCAGRSharpeMax DDTrades
20166.5%0.43-21.1%3
2017-2.5%-0.00-26.5%7
2018-30.0%-1.26-33.2%8
201941.8%1.29-21.9%2
2020378.0%2.63-33.8%6
202183.2%2.14-12.5%5
2022-7.6%-0.21-22.5%4

A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.

Regime Performance

PeriodRegimeDaysAnn. ReturnSharpeExposure
hidden testDOWNTREND278-31.0%-1.4721%
hidden testEXPENSIVE8360.8%1.4857%
hidden testEXTREME48176.0%3.2363%
hidden testHIGH VOLATILITY2542.8%0.0736%
hidden testLOW VOLATILITY43853.0%2.1337%
hidden testMEDIUM VOLATILITY250-29.8%-0.9730%
hidden testNORMAL8113.7%0.1331%
hidden testSIDEWAYS29311.9%0.5231%
hidden testUPTREND37158.2%1.4248%
trainDOWNTREND5185.0%0.4111%
trainEXPENSIVE31148.0%1.4067%
trainEXTREME100392.1%5.4492%
trainHIGH VOLATILITY69954.4%1.3339%
trainLOW VOLATILITY74537.5%1.5753%
trainMEDIUM VOLATILITY568-13.1%-0.5629%
trainNORMAL1,6012.7%0.1133%
trainSIDEWAYS592-15.2%-0.6134%
trainUPTREND90272.0%1.7964%
validationDOWNTREND12536.3%1.899%
validationEXPENSIVE13848.4%1.0345%
validationEXTREME144296.4%3.7386%
validationHIGH VOLATILITY25890.5%1.3850%
validationLOW VOLATILITY18354.2%2.1559%
validationMEDIUM VOLATILITY31589.2%2.6939%
validationNORMAL47425.3%0.9537%
validationSIDEWAYS2066.2%0.2336%
validationUPTREND425130.7%2.3064%

Trades (full period)

72 trades
EntryExitEntry PxExit PxReturnDays
2026-08-242026-09-30$348.95$354.81-4.67%27
2026-05-052026-06-08$389.37$408.95-0.58%24
2026-04-202026-04-24$392.50$376.30-4.73%5
2025-12-152026-01-05$475.31$451.67-4.74%14
2025-11-032025-11-13$468.37$401.99-5.63%9
2025-10-242025-10-27$433.72$452.42-2.45%2
2025-08-252025-10-23$346.60$448.9826.82%43
2025-08-112025-08-20$339.03$323.90-0.30%8
2025-05-062025-06-12$275.35$319.1123.02%27
2025-04-302025-05-02$282.16$287.21-4.14%3
2025-04-102025-04-22$252.40$237.97-16.60%8
2024-11-072025-01-13$296.91$403.3134.74%44
2024-09-052024-10-14$230.17$219.16-2.87%28
2024-06-272024-08-02$197.42$207.678.86%26
2024-05-152024-05-29$173.99$176.19-0.65%10
2024-04-302024-05-10$183.28$168.47-11.56%9
2023-11-172024-01-08$234.30$240.451.47%34
2023-09-122023-09-28$267.48$246.38-8.46%13
2023-07-262023-08-02$264.35$254.11-1.14%6
2023-05-242023-07-24$182.90$269.0641.75%41
2022-07-142022-08-29$238.31$284.8215.73%33
2022-06-242022-06-29$245.71$228.49-1.22%4
2022-03-222022-04-21$331.33$336.264.29%22
2022-01-042022-01-24$383.20$310.00-22.49%14
2021-08-042021-12-01$236.97$365.0062.12%84
2021-06-142021-07-23$205.90$214.466.24%29
2021-04-142021-05-04$244.08$224.53-7.03%15
2021-04-052021-04-12$230.35$233.991.82%6
2020-11-192021-02-09$166.42$283.1548.74%55
2020-10-222020-10-29$141.93$136.94-3.98%6
2020-10-162020-10-20$146.56$140.65-2.88%3
2020-10-072020-10-14$141.77$153.777.34%6
2020-08-142020-09-24$110.05$129.2610.59%29
2020-04-142020-08-10$47.33$94.57106.84%83
2019-10-232020-03-04$16.98$49.97173.49%91
2019-09-132019-10-10$16.35$16.32-3.52%20
2019-07-162019-08-06$16.83$15.38-10.11%16
2018-10-292018-12-19$22.32$22.201.49%36
2018-08-272018-08-31$21.28$20.11-6.28%5
2018-08-032018-08-20$23.21$20.56-12.77%12
2018-06-122018-07-06$22.85$20.59-7.09%18
2018-04-272018-05-04$19.61$19.61-0.56%6
2018-03-132018-03-19$22.79$20.90-5.47%5
2018-01-222018-02-07$23.44$23.00-3.23%13
2018-01-092018-01-12$22.25$22.41-0.04%4
2017-12-122017-12-28$22.74$21.02-5.66%12
2017-09-182017-09-26$25.67$23.02-7.78%7
2017-08-252017-09-06$23.20$22.97-1.40%8
2017-08-042017-08-22$23.79$22.76-2.73%13
2017-06-012017-07-06$22.69$20.59-4.38%25
2017-03-282017-05-24$18.50$20.686.51%41
2016-12-202017-02-28$13.92$16.6722.77%47
2016-07-222016-08-17$14.82$14.881.21%19
2016-06-082016-06-23$15.70$13.09-15.47%12
2016-03-042016-05-03$13.40$15.4918.17%42
2015-11-302015-12-29$15.35$15.81-0.08%21
2015-09-222015-09-30$17.40$16.56-5.98%7
2015-08-062015-08-07$16.41$16.17-6.17%2
2015-04-132015-07-27$13.99$16.8728.14%74
2014-11-112014-12-02$16.74$15.43-5.15%15
2014-08-052014-09-16$15.90$17.386.22%30
2014-06-092014-07-16$13.69$14.485.27%27
2014-05-282014-06-03$14.02$13.66-2.35%5
2014-01-152014-03-26$10.94$14.2028.40%49
2013-12-132014-01-14$9.84$10.75-5.65%21
2013-07-012013-10-22$7.81$11.4459.50%80
2013-03-262013-06-26$2.52$7.05178.87%65
2013-01-282013-02-22$2.54$2.41-5.11%19
2012-11-062012-12-31$2.08$2.265.25%38
2012-08-242012-09-06$1.97$1.90-8.87%9
2012-06-192012-07-20$2.14$2.12-0.07%23
2012-02-022012-04-10$2.02$2.1616.96%47