Fitness
0.3389
Generation
37
Complexity
17
Created
2026-09-26
Lineage
Parents (1)
added entry filter: vol_chg < 1.2007
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# PriceMomentum_V0815 [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
if flat and (ret_20d > 0.1146 and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.05) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.05) and vol_chg < 1.2007):
position = 1.0
if long and (ret_20d < -0.1003 or ret_20d > 0.0944):
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 3.5% | 33.2% | 1.0% | 8.3% |
| Total Return | 31.6% | 136.4% | 3.8% | 222.7% |
| Sharpe | 0.30 | 1.05 | 0.15 | 0.49 |
| Sortino | 0.21 | 1.06 | 0.10 | 0.38 |
| Calmar | 0.12 | 0.99 | 0.03 | 0.24 |
| Volatility | 14.9% | 31.9% | 19.9% | 20.7% |
| Max DD | -28.2% | -33.6% | -31.8% | -34.7% |
| Win Rate | 55.1% | 56.9% | 50.0% | 54.7% |
| Avg Win | 2.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| Avg Loss | -2.0% | -3.4% | -2.8% | -2.6% |
| Payoff | 0.99 | 1.21 | 1.08 | 1.10 |
| Expectancy | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Profit Factor | 1.22 | 1.60 | 1.08 | 1.33 |
| Trades | 176 | 116 | 82 | 375 |
| Avg Holding Days | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Turnover | 44.2 | 77.3 | 44.2 | 51.0 |
| Exposure | 12.5% | 18.0% | 10.8% | 13.2% |
Growth of $100
PriceMomentum_V0815 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V0815 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 5.9% | 0.71 | -8.2% | 14 |
| 2017 | 10.3% | 0.86 | -7.7% | 35 |
| 2018 | -9.8% | -1.41 | -11.5% | 9 |
| 2019 | 8.7% | 1.64 | -1.6% | 12 |
| 2020 | 227.1% | 2.85 | -13.8% | 73 |
| 2021 | -1.7% | 0.05 | -27.4% | 26 |
| 2022 | -26.9% | -1.48 | -26.8% | 16 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 272 | -11.5% | -0.73 | 8% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 5.8% | 0.20 | 20% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 135.4% | 4.16 | 29% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | -8.1% | -0.29 | 16% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 432 | 8.3% | 0.65 | 8% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | 5.1% | 0.26 | 10% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 805 | -5.2% | -0.30 | 9% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | -2.8% | -1.54 | 1% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 18.1% | 0.64 | 21% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | 3.3% | 0.76 | 2% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 13.2% | 0.74 | 23% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 86.1% | 2.38 | 40% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 3.3% | 0.20 | 12% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 6.5% | 0.48 | 14% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | 3.4% | 0.25 | 11% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -2.2% | -0.19 | 9% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | 6.2% | 1.15 | 1% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 4.2% | 0.19 | 26% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 16.5% | 2.22 | 3% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 55.5% | 1.60 | 31% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 158.9% | 3.00 | 35% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 86.1% | 2.14 | 19% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 3.7% | 0.25 | 12% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 8.0% | 0.26 | 21% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | -10.8% | -0.54 | 9% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -23.8% | -1.55 | 1% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 66.5% | 1.63 | 30% |
Trades (full period)
latest 100 of 375
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-09 | $354.08 | $367.81 | -2.38% | 3 | |
| 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-03 | $356.09 | $376.37 | -3.17% | 3 | |
| 2026-08-28 | 2026-08-31 | $348.75 | $367.95 | -1.91% | 2 | |
| 2026-08-26 | 2026-08-27 | $345.82 | $354.81 | -1.46% | 2 | |
| 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-25 | $348.95 | $350.25 | -4.03% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-01 | $435.79 | $415.88 | -1.63% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-07 | $398.73 | $411.79 | 2.20% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-12-29 | $475.19 | $459.64 | -2.30% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-12-24 | $485.56 | $485.40 | -0.85% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-19 | 2025-12-22 | $481.20 | $488.73 | -0.65% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-17 | 2025-12-18 | $467.26 | $483.37 | -4.81% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-16 | $475.31 | $489.88 | 3.36% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-09 | 2025-10-10 | $435.54 | $413.49 | -0.92% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-07 | 2025-10-08 | $433.09 | $438.69 | -4.64% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-03 | 2025-10-06 | $429.83 | $453.25 | -1.61% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-02 | $459.46 | $436.00 | 3.11% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-29 | 2025-09-30 | $443.21 | $444.72 | 0.44% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-26 | $423.39 | $440.40 | -4.58% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-24 | $425.85 | $442.79 | -2.12% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-22 | $426.07 | $434.21 | 2.01% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-17 | 2025-09-18 | $425.86 | $416.85 | 0.80% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-16 | $410.04 | $421.62 | 3.36% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-04 | 2025-06-05 | $332.05 | $284.70 | -3.75% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-06-03 | $342.69 | $344.27 | -1.29% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-29 | 2025-05-30 | $358.43 | $346.46 | 0.23% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-27 | 2025-05-28 | $362.89 | $356.90 | 6.73% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-22 | 2025-05-23 | $341.04 | $339.34 | 1.72% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-07 | 2025-05-08 | $276.22 | $284.82 | 0.12% | 2 | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-06 | $282.16 | $275.35 | -4.23% | 5 | |
| 2025-04-16 | 2025-04-23 | $241.55 | $250.74 | -6.54% | 5 | |
| 2025-01-02 | 2025-01-06 | $379.28 | $411.05 | 1.42% | 3 | |
| 2024-12-30 | 2024-12-31 | $417.41 | $403.84 | -3.50% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-26 | 2024-12-27 | $454.13 | $431.66 | -1.96% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-23 | 2024-12-24 | $430.60 | $462.28 | 2.06% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-19 | 2024-12-20 | $436.17 | $421.06 | -1.10% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-17 | 2024-12-18 | $479.86 | $440.13 | 3.43% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-13 | 2024-12-16 | $436.23 | $463.02 | 4.13% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-11 | 2024-12-12 | $424.77 | $418.10 | 5.72% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-09 | 2024-12-10 | $389.79 | $400.99 | -0.05% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-05 | 2024-12-06 | $369.49 | $389.22 | 3.03% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-03 | 2024-12-04 | $351.42 | $357.93 | -1.79% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-29 | 2024-12-02 | $345.16 | $357.09 | 3.48% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-26 | 2024-11-27 | $338.23 | $332.89 | -0.31% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-22 | 2024-11-25 | $352.56 | $338.59 | 3.60% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-20 | 2024-11-21 | $342.03 | $339.64 | -1.35% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-18 | 2024-11-19 | $338.74 | $346.00 | 5.41% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-14 | 2024-11-15 | $311.18 | $320.72 | -5.97% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-08 | 2024-11-11 | $321.22 | $350.00 | 7.98% | 2 | |
| 2024-10-03 | 2024-10-07 | $240.66 | $240.83 | 0.22% | 3 | |
| 2024-09-26 | 2024-09-27 | $254.22 | $260.46 | -1.29% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-24 | 2024-09-25 | $254.27 | $257.02 | 1.51% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-13 | 2024-09-23 | $230.29 | $250.00 | 3.47% | 7 | |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-11 | $210.73 | $228.13 | -1.94% | 4 | |
| 2024-07-30 | 2024-08-02 | $222.62 | $207.67 | -6.76% | 4 | |
| 2024-07-25 | 2024-07-26 | $220.25 | $219.80 | 1.77% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-23 | 2024-07-24 | $246.38 | $215.99 | -2.24% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-19 | 2024-07-22 | $239.20 | $251.51 | -4.22% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-17 | 2024-07-18 | $248.50 | $249.23 | -3.34% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-15 | 2024-07-16 | $252.64 | $256.56 | 1.57% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-11 | 2024-07-12 | $241.03 | $248.23 | -8.64% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-09 | 2024-07-10 | $262.33 | $263.26 | 3.51% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-05 | 2024-07-08 | $251.52 | $252.94 | 1.88% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-02 | 2024-07-03 | $231.26 | $246.39 | 9.99% | 2 | |
| 2024-05-21 | 2024-05-22 | $186.60 | $180.11 | 6.45% | 2 | |
| 2024-05-17 | 2024-05-20 | $177.46 | $174.95 | 1.30% | 2 | |
| 2024-05-15 | 2024-05-16 | $173.99 | $174.84 | -2.20% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-18 | 2023-07-19 | $293.34 | $291.26 | 0.82% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-10 | 2023-07-11 | $269.61 | $269.79 | -1.95% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-06 | 2023-07-07 | $276.54 | $274.43 | -2.30% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-03 | 2023-07-05 | $279.82 | $282.48 | 6.69% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-29 | 2023-06-30 | $257.50 | $261.77 | 0.29% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-27 | 2023-06-28 | $250.21 | $256.24 | 3.60% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-23 | 2023-06-26 | $256.60 | $241.05 | -3.22% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-21 | 2023-06-22 | $259.46 | $264.61 | -5.66% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-16 | 2023-06-20 | $260.54 | $274.45 | 1.61% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-14 | 2023-06-15 | $256.79 | $255.90 | -0.94% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-12 | 2023-06-13 | $249.83 | $258.71 | 2.02% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-08 | 2023-06-09 | $234.86 | $244.40 | 4.38% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-06 | 2023-06-07 | $221.31 | $224.57 | 1.50% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-06-05 | $213.97 | $217.61 | 2.91% | 2 | |
| 2023-05-26 | 2023-05-30 | $193.17 | $201.16 | 4.51% | 2 | |
| 2023-05-24 | 2023-05-25 | $182.90 | $184.47 | -1.74% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-18 | 2022-08-19 | $302.87 | $296.67 | -0.57% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-16 | 2022-08-17 | $306.56 | $304.00 | -1.09% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-05 | 2022-08-08 | $288.17 | $290.42 | -6.82% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-01 | 2022-08-02 | $297.28 | $300.59 | -0.16% | 2 | |
| 2022-07-28 | 2022-07-29 | $280.90 | $297.15 | 2.01% | 2 | |
| 2022-07-22 | 2022-07-25 | $272.24 | $268.43 | -0.00% | 2 | |
| 2022-07-19 | 2022-07-20 | $245.53 | $247.50 | 1.87% | 2 | |
| 2022-06-24 | 2022-06-27 | $245.71 | $244.92 | 4.32% | 2 | |
| 2022-04-20 | 2022-04-27 | $325.73 | $293.84 | -14.93% | 6 | |
| 2022-04-18 | 2022-04-19 | $334.76 | $342.72 | 1.76% | 2 | |
| 2022-04-13 | 2022-04-14 | $340.79 | $328.33 | 3.39% | 2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | 2022-04-12 | $325.31 | $328.98 | -5.03% | 2 | |
| 2022-04-07 | 2022-04-08 | $352.42 | $341.83 | 0.90% | 2 | |
| 2022-04-05 | 2022-04-06 | $363.75 | $348.59 | -4.93% | 2 | |
| 2022-01-13 | 2022-01-18 | $343.85 | $343.50 | -5.31% | 3 | |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-01-05 | $383.20 | $362.71 | -4.38% | 2 | |
| 2021-11-22 | 2021-11-23 | $385.62 | $369.68 | 1.54% | 2 | |
| 2021-11-18 | 2021-11-19 | $365.46 | $379.02 | 0.48% | 2 |