Fitness
0.6931
Generation
32
Complexity
15
Created
2026-09-25
Lineage
Parents (1)
logic of PriceMomentum_V0314 with risk overlay of PriceMomentum_V0386
Children (3)
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# PriceMomentum_V0710 [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
if flat and (ret_20d > 0.1146 and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.05) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.05) and vol_chg < 1.2007):
position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.1003:
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 28.0% | 97.3% | 12.6% | 35.6% |
| Total Return | 616.0% | 667.5% | 55.6% | 8700.8% |
| Sharpe | 1.01 | 1.61 | 0.54 | 1.06 |
| Sortino | 0.94 | 1.60 | 0.42 | 0.94 |
| Calmar | 0.87 | 2.08 | 0.36 | 0.76 |
| Volatility | 28.5% | 49.8% | 30.9% | 34.5% |
| Max DD | -32.2% | -46.9% | -34.8% | -46.9% |
| Win Rate | 59.1% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% |
| Avg Win | 31.1% | 61.3% | 12.9% | 35.6% |
| Avg Loss | -7.4% | -9.4% | -5.6% | -7.4% |
| Payoff | 4.17 | 6.54 | 2.32 | 4.83 |
| Expectancy | 15.3% | 26.0% | 3.7% | 15.9% |
| Profit Factor | 6.03 | 6.54 | 2.32 | 5.71 |
| Trades | 22 | 12 | 14 | 48 |
| Avg Holding Days | 31.3 | 29.0 | 18.4 | 27.9 |
| Turnover | 5.6 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 6.6 |
| Exposure | 35.2% | 44.4% | 28.6% | 35.5% |
Growth of $100
PriceMomentum_V0710 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V0710 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2.5% | 0.25 | -19.9% | 5 |
| 2017 | 37.9% | 1.33 | -21.8% | 2 |
| 2018 | -16.5% | -0.70 | -28.5% | 4 |
| 2019 | 34.8% | 2.18 | -8.5% | 1 |
| 2020 | 683.0% | 3.18 | -33.7% | 4 |
| 2021 | 39.9% | 1.17 | -22.0% | 2 |
| 2022 | -33.0% | -1.33 | -39.7% | 6 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 271 | 3.8% | 0.20 | 17% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 46.6% | 1.05 | 66% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 210.8% | 3.53 | 75% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | -6.5% | -0.16 | 31% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 431 | 38.6% | 1.91 | 22% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | 2.5% | 0.07 | 37% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 804 | 2.0% | 0.08 | 22% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | -5.2% | -0.35 | 3% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 43.4% | 0.98 | 57% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | 12.4% | 1.05 | 8% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 48.2% | 1.25 | 66% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 416.1% | 5.63 | 100% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 50.1% | 1.36 | 32% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 28.2% | 1.33 | 41% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | 2.9% | 0.11 | 31% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | 0.6% | 0.03 | 25% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -2.2% | -0.21 | 2% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 58.2% | 1.43 | 72% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 37.6% | 1.70 | 12% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 62.6% | 1.08 | 78% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 374.9% | 4.55 | 85% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 118.3% | 1.75 | 48% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 31.4% | 1.39 | 35% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 77.6% | 1.78 | 47% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | -4.0% | -0.14 | 22% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -27.2% | -1.63 | 3% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 145.0% | 2.27 | 74% |
Trades (full period)
49 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | — | $348.95 | — | 4.65% | 23 | OPEN |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-01 | $435.79 | $415.88 | -1.63% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-08 | $398.73 | $428.35 | 5.55% | 3 | |
| 2025-12-15 | 2026-01-13 | $475.31 | $447.20 | -2.37% | 20 | |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-11-21 | $410.04 | $391.09 | -0.38% | 50 | |
| 2025-05-22 | 2025-06-06 | $341.04 | $295.14 | -15.09% | 11 | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-12 | $282.16 | $318.38 | 1.93% | 9 | |
| 2025-04-16 | 2025-04-23 | $241.55 | $250.74 | -6.54% | 5 | |
| 2024-11-08 | 2025-01-17 | $321.22 | $426.50 | 39.11% | 47 | |
| 2024-10-03 | 2024-10-22 | $240.66 | $217.97 | -12.29% | 14 | |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-27 | $210.73 | $260.46 | 10.22% | 16 | |
| 2024-07-02 | 2024-08-02 | $231.26 | $207.67 | 3.14% | 23 | |
| 2024-05-15 | 2024-05-29 | $173.99 | $176.19 | -0.65% | 10 | |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-08-03 | $213.97 | $259.32 | 22.21% | 43 | |
| 2023-05-24 | 2023-05-31 | $182.90 | $203.93 | 8.07% | 5 | |
| 2022-08-16 | 2022-08-22 | $306.56 | $289.91 | -4.28% | 5 | |
| 2022-08-05 | 2022-08-08 | $288.17 | $290.42 | -6.82% | 2 | |
| 2022-07-19 | 2022-08-02 | $245.53 | $300.59 | 23.34% | 11 | |
| 2022-06-24 | 2022-07-05 | $245.71 | $233.07 | -3.51% | 7 | |
| 2022-04-05 | 2022-04-27 | $363.75 | $293.84 | -23.64% | 16 | |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-01-20 | $383.20 | $332.09 | -17.18% | 12 | |
| 2021-09-16 | 2021-12-03 | $252.33 | $338.32 | 43.21% | 56 | |
| 2020-11-23 | 2021-02-23 | $173.95 | $232.95 | 45.65% | 62 | |
| 2020-10-07 | 2020-11-13 | $141.77 | $136.17 | -0.73% | 28 | |
| 2020-05-20 | 2020-09-30 | $54.37 | $143.00 | 158.81% | 93 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-04-30 | $47.33 | $52.13 | 22.74% | 13 | |
| 2019-10-31 | 2020-03-05 | $20.99 | $48.30 | 137.45% | 86 | |
| 2019-07-16 | 2019-07-22 | $16.83 | $17.05 | 1.64% | 5 | |
| 2018-11-19 | 2018-11-20 | $23.56 | $23.17 | -0.44% | 2 | |
| 2018-08-13 | 2018-08-20 | $23.76 | $20.56 | -14.23% | 6 | |
| 2018-06-15 | 2018-07-05 | $23.88 | $20.61 | -13.27% | 14 | |
| 2018-05-01 | 2018-06-12 | $19.99 | $22.85 | 12.77% | 30 | |
| 2017-08-04 | 2017-08-24 | $23.79 | $23.53 | 1.44% | 15 | |
| 2017-01-05 | 2017-07-07 | $15.12 | $20.88 | 35.78% | 127 | |
| 2016-12-21 | 2016-12-28 | $13.85 | $14.65 | 4.93% | 5 | |
| 2016-07-26 | 2016-08-30 | $15.30 | $14.09 | -6.63% | 26 | |
| 2016-04-08 | 2016-05-05 | $16.67 | $14.10 | -13.64% | 20 | |
| 2016-03-24 | 2016-03-28 | $15.18 | $15.35 | 2.12% | 2 | |
| 2016-03-04 | 2016-03-21 | $13.40 | $15.89 | 18.67% | 12 | |
| 2015-05-11 | 2015-08-12 | $15.97 | $15.88 | 0.12% | 66 | |
| 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-01 | $15.50 | $15.07 | -2.12% | 3 | |
| 2015-04-27 | 2015-04-28 | $15.44 | $15.37 | 5.80% | 2 | |
| 2014-06-23 | 2014-10-01 | $15.81 | $16.02 | 5.49% | 71 | |
| 2014-01-24 | 2014-03-26 | $11.64 | $14.20 | 21.21% | 43 | |
| 2013-04-05 | 2013-10-24 | $2.76 | $11.54 | 290.78% | 142 | |
| 2013-01-29 | 2013-03-20 | $2.53 | $2.40 | -7.94% | 36 | |
| 2012-11-23 | 2012-12-14 | $2.14 | $2.25 | 3.30% | 16 | |
| 2012-02-23 | 2012-04-25 | $2.30 | $2.19 | -7.20% | 44 | |
| 2012-02-21 | 2012-02-22 | $2.30 | $2.28 | -1.54% | 2 |