Strategy Zoo / S0115
LongTermTrend_V0115
ARCHIVEDtrend_followingstructuralremoved entry condition: sma_200_slope > 0.0
Fitness
0.4589
Generation
5
Complexity
2
Created
2026-09-18
Lineage
Parents (1)
seed strategy
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# LongTermTrend_V0115 [trend_following]
if flat and close > sma_200:
position = 1.0
if long and close < sma_200:
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 12.0% | 70.8% | -8.9% | 16.1% |
| Total Return | 146.6% | 398.0% | -29.2% | 795.7% |
| Sharpe | 0.48 | 1.16 | -0.02 | 0.55 |
| Sortino | 0.55 | 1.48 | -0.02 | 0.65 |
| Calmar | 0.16 | 1.17 | -0.14 | 0.22 |
| Volatility | 39.2% | 63.8% | 41.5% | 45.9% |
| Max DD | -73.0% | -60.7% | -64.7% | -73.0% |
| Win Rate | 7.3% | 26.7% | 16.0% | 14.8% |
| Avg Win | 212.5% | 149.6% | 12.5% | 110.6% |
| Avg Loss | -4.8% | -5.0% | -3.7% | -4.3% |
| Payoff | 10.00 | 10.00 | 3.37 | 10.00 |
| Expectancy | 11.1% | 36.2% | -1.1% | 12.7% |
| Profit Factor | 3.49 | 10.00 | 0.64 | 4.42 |
| Trades | 41 | 15 | 25 | 81 |
| Avg Holding Days | 29.3 | 39.1 | 21.9 | 29.4 |
| Turnover | 10.4 | 10.0 | 13.5 | 11.0 |
| Exposure | 60.1% | 75.7% | 56.1% | 62.3% |
Growth of $100
LongTermTrend_V0115 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
LongTermTrend_V0115 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -22.9% | -1.47 | -28.8% | 6 |
| 2017 | 36.0% | 1.08 | -23.4% | 2 |
| 2018 | -41.7% | -1.59 | -47.3% | 10 |
| 2019 | 34.3% | 1.12 | -25.2% | 4 |
| 2020 | 585.4% | 2.65 | -60.7% | 1 |
| 2021 | 20.1% | 0.60 | -41.7% | 5 |
| 2022 | -49.1% | -1.71 | -49.0% | 9 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 267 | -24.9% | -2.69 | 3% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 135.9% | 1.95 | 100% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 185.0% | 2.93 | 100% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | 13.2% | 0.25 | 46% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 429 | 15.2% | 0.49 | 61% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 248 | -42.7% | -0.96 | 59% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 800 | -26.1% | -0.74 | 49% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | -60.0% | -1.65 | 55% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 63.3% | 1.12 | 95% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | -25.3% | -1.55 | 2% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 98.1% | 1.89 | 100% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 416.1% | 5.63 | 100% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 37.4% | 0.74 | 55% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 23.5% | 0.89 | 63% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -9.9% | -0.27 | 62% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -21.3% | -0.67 | 50% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -24.6% | -0.68 | 55% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 72.8% | 1.49 | 97% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | -20.2% | -2.54 | 3% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 84.2% | 1.10 | 99% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 384.0% | 4.30 | 100% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 131.0% | 1.50 | 73% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 21.1% | 0.65 | 81% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 57.7% | 1.07 | 75% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | -23.3% | -0.49 | 61% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -58.2% | -1.08 | 72% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 165.6% | 2.18 | 99% |
Trades (full period)
81 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 2026-07-08 | $402.90 | $394.06 | -4.21% | 2 | |
| 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-06 | $425.30 | $419.77 | -6.64% | 3 | |
| 2026-05-21 | 2026-06-08 | $417.85 | $408.95 | -6.48% | 12 | |
| 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-20 | $428.35 | $417.26 | -2.06% | 9 | |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-21 | $392.50 | $386.42 | -2.22% | 2 | |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-19 | $399.27 | $380.30 | -0.90% | 3 | |
| 2025-09-04 | 2026-03-16 | $338.53 | $395.56 | 16.86% | 133 | |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-09-03 | $346.60 | $334.09 | -3.32% | 7 | |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-21 | $339.03 | $320.11 | -1.94% | 9 | |
| 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-31 | $321.20 | $308.27 | -2.21% | 3 | |
| 2025-07-17 | 2025-07-25 | $319.41 | $316.06 | -5.28% | 7 | |
| 2025-07-15 | 2025-07-16 | $310.78 | $321.67 | -2.13% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-08 | $315.35 | $297.81 | -7.06% | 3 | |
| 2025-06-10 | 2025-07-02 | $326.09 | $315.65 | -2.74% | 16 | |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-06-06 | $318.38 | $295.14 | -4.73% | 19 | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-01 | $282.16 | $280.52 | -3.58% | 2 | |
| 2025-03-26 | 2025-03-27 | $272.06 | $273.13 | -5.77% | 2 | |
| 2024-08-16 | 2025-03-05 | $216.12 | $279.10 | 26.79% | 137 | |
| 2024-08-14 | 2024-08-15 | $201.38 | $214.14 | -3.30% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-02 | 2024-08-06 | $231.26 | $200.64 | -5.41% | 25 | |
| 2023-11-14 | 2024-01-12 | $237.41 | $218.89 | 1.37% | 41 | |
| 2023-11-08 | 2023-11-10 | $222.11 | $214.65 | -5.68% | 3 | |
| 2023-11-06 | 2023-11-07 | $219.27 | $222.18 | -0.51% | 2 | |
| 2023-10-25 | 2023-10-26 | $212.42 | $205.76 | -2.09% | 2 | |
| 2023-05-31 | 2023-10-23 | $203.93 | $212.08 | 5.17% | 101 | |
| 2022-09-15 | 2022-09-23 | $303.75 | $275.33 | -4.82% | 7 | |
| 2022-09-12 | 2022-09-14 | $304.42 | $302.61 | -2.71% | 3 | |
| 2022-08-16 | 2022-08-22 | $306.56 | $289.91 | -4.28% | 5 | |
| 2022-08-04 | 2022-08-08 | $308.63 | $290.42 | -6.44% | 3 | |
| 2022-05-04 | 2022-05-06 | $317.54 | $288.55 | -4.14% | 3 | |
| 2022-03-18 | 2022-04-27 | $301.80 | $293.84 | 0.36% | 28 | |
| 2022-03-10 | 2022-03-11 | $279.43 | $265.12 | -2.60% | 2 | |
| 2022-03-01 | 2022-03-07 | $288.12 | $268.19 | -3.89% | 5 | |
| 2021-07-29 | 2022-02-23 | $225.78 | $254.68 | 26.73% | 145 | |
| 2021-06-18 | 2021-07-28 | $207.77 | $215.66 | 4.36% | 28 | |
| 2021-06-11 | 2021-06-16 | $203.30 | $201.62 | -1.96% | 4 | |
| 2021-05-25 | 2021-06-04 | $201.56 | $199.68 | -5.73% | 8 | |
| 2021-05-17 | 2021-05-18 | $192.28 | $192.62 | -2.39% | 2 | |
| 2020-03-20 | 2021-05-14 | $28.50 | $196.58 | 567.09% | 291 | |
| 2019-10-23 | 2020-03-19 | $16.98 | $28.51 | 41.05% | 102 | |
| 2019-10-15 | 2019-10-22 | $17.19 | $17.04 | -1.54% | 6 | |
| 2019-03-01 | 2019-03-04 | $19.65 | $19.02 | -8.04% | 2 | |
| 2019-02-06 | 2019-02-08 | $21.15 | $20.39 | -4.50% | 3 | |
| 2019-01-07 | 2019-01-22 | $22.33 | $19.93 | -5.04% | 11 | |
| 2018-12-27 | 2019-01-03 | $21.08 | $20.02 | -5.09% | 5 | |
| 2018-10-26 | 2018-12-26 | $22.06 | $21.74 | -6.37% | 41 | |
| 2018-08-22 | 2018-08-29 | $21.44 | $20.33 | -3.31% | 6 | |
| 2018-08-03 | 2018-08-20 | $23.21 | $20.56 | -12.77% | 12 | |
| 2018-07-18 | 2018-07-23 | $21.59 | $20.21 | -3.02% | 4 | |
| 2018-07-11 | 2018-07-12 | $21.26 | $21.11 | -1.29% | 2 | |
| 2018-06-12 | 2018-07-05 | $22.85 | $20.61 | -6.58% | 17 | |
| 2018-03-13 | 2018-03-15 | $22.79 | $21.71 | -5.65% | 3 | |
| 2018-02-23 | 2018-03-02 | $23.47 | $22.34 | -4.59% | 6 | |
| 2018-02-08 | 2018-02-09 | $21.02 | $20.69 | -8.82% | 2 | |
| 2018-01-09 | 2018-02-06 | $22.25 | $22.26 | -1.17% | 20 | |
| 2017-12-12 | 2017-12-26 | $22.74 | $21.15 | -1.32% | 10 | |
| 2017-01-04 | 2017-11-03 | $15.13 | $20.41 | 37.64% | 212 | |
| 2016-12-28 | 2017-01-03 | $14.65 | $14.47 | -2.85% | 4 | |
| 2016-07-12 | 2016-08-30 | $14.98 | $14.09 | -4.45% | 36 | |
| 2016-06-08 | 2016-06-13 | $15.70 | $14.52 | -6.02% | 4 | |
| 2016-05-27 | 2016-06-02 | $14.87 | $14.60 | -2.67% | 4 | |
| 2016-04-01 | 2016-05-05 | $15.84 | $14.10 | -3.33% | 25 | |
| 2016-03-29 | 2016-03-31 | $15.34 | $15.32 | -1.66% | 3 | |
| 2016-03-21 | 2016-03-24 | $15.89 | $15.18 | -4.55% | 4 | |
| 2015-12-30 | 2016-01-05 | $15.87 | $14.90 | -6.00% | 4 | |
| 2015-12-02 | 2015-12-03 | $15.47 | $15.51 | -2.39% | 2 | |
| 2015-08-28 | 2015-10-09 | $16.57 | $14.71 | -6.88% | 30 | |
| 2015-05-05 | 2015-08-25 | $15.53 | $14.67 | -5.24% | 79 | |
| 2015-04-28 | 2015-05-01 | $15.37 | $15.07 | -2.57% | 4 | |
| 2014-10-29 | 2014-12-02 | $15.87 | $15.43 | -4.78% | 24 | |
| 2012-11-19 | 2014-10-28 | $2.19 | $16.18 | 594.83% | 489 | |
| 2012-11-14 | 2012-11-16 | $2.09 | $2.12 | -2.69% | 3 | |
| 2012-11-06 | 2012-11-12 | $2.08 | $2.07 | -3.94% | 5 | |
| 2012-09-18 | 2012-09-21 | $2.09 | $2.00 | -5.23% | 4 | |
| 2012-07-06 | 2012-07-24 | $2.07 | $1.99 | -2.02% | 13 | |
| 2012-06-19 | 2012-07-03 | $2.14 | $2.04 | -4.71% | 11 | |
| 2012-05-30 | 2012-06-01 | $2.03 | $1.88 | -7.10% | 3 | |
| 2012-05-23 | 2012-05-29 | $2.07 | $2.11 | -3.41% | 4 | |
| 2012-01-26 | 2012-05-16 | $1.93 | $1.95 | 5.01% | 78 | |
| 2012-01-11 | 2012-01-17 | $1.88 | $1.77 | -17.65% | 4 | |
| 2012-01-04 | 2012-01-06 | $1.85 | $1.79 | -3.61% | 3 |