Strategy Zoo / S1693
LongTermTrend_V1693
ARCHIVEDhybridllmAdded regime gates to avoid high-volatility and bubble regimes; tightened entries to require price > sma_20 (clarified trend filter); replaced single MACD exit with multi-condition exit (MACD < 0 OR price falling below sma_20 OR >12% drawdown) to reduce large losses; introduced volatility-based position scaling (reduce size when vol_pctile>0.75, keep full size when vol_pctile<0.25); lowered base_position to 0.8 to reduce overall risk.
Fitness
0.0947
Generation
78
Complexity
31
Created
2026-10-16
Lineage
Parents (1)
swapped indicator ret_20d -> cumret_252d; removed entry condition: rsi_14 > 34.4934
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# LongTermTrend_V1693 [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['UPTREND', 'SIDEWAYS']
require regime.volatility in ['LOW_VOLATILITY', 'MEDIUM_VOLATILITY']
require regime.bubble in ['NORMAL']
if flat and (((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > -0.0024) or ret_20d > 0.085) and cumret_252d > 1.1509 and dist_sma_50 > -0.0774) or ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) or ((breakout_50 == 1 and rel_volume > 1.5045) or ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) and sma_50 > sma_200)))) and close > sma_20):
position = 0.8
if long and (macd_hist < 0.0 or close < sma_20 or drawdown < -0.12):
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | -2.7% | 1.3% | -4.7% | -2.4% |
| Total Return | -19.8% | 3.9% | -16.6% | -30.5% |
| Sharpe | -0.19 | 0.16 | -0.30 | -0.14 |
| Sortino | -0.11 | 0.10 | -0.19 | -0.09 |
| Calmar | -0.08 | 0.05 | -0.19 | -0.05 |
| Volatility | 11.3% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 12.0% |
| Max DD | -36.0% | -23.7% | -24.4% | -44.6% |
| Win Rate | 43.0% | 49.1% | 42.7% | 44.2% |
| Avg Win | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% |
| Avg Loss | -1.7% | -1.5% | -1.9% | -1.7% |
| Payoff | 1.11 | 1.20 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| Expectancy | -0.2% | 0.1% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| Profit Factor | 0.83 | 1.16 | 0.83 | 0.89 |
| Trades | 114 | 55 | 82 | 251 |
| Avg Holding Days | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| Turnover | 22.8 | 29.3 | 34.8 | 27.2 |
| Exposure | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.0% |
Growth of $100
LongTermTrend_V1693 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
LongTermTrend_V1693 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -4.4% | -0.55 | -7.1% | 15 |
| 2017 | 1.2% | 0.18 | -4.9% | 15 |
| 2018 | -6.6% | -0.84 | -10.6% | 5 |
| 2019 | 2.3% | 0.29 | -7.3% | 13 |
| 2020 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2021 | 11.5% | 0.64 | -18.2% | 39 |
| 2022 | -6.8% | -0.73 | -10.6% | 16 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 279 | -1.7% | -1.04 | 0% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 33.8% | 2.44 | 2% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | -8.7% | -0.79 | 1% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 445 | -2.8% | -0.21 | 13% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 251 | -1.3% | -0.09 | 8% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 819 | -8.0% | -0.60 | 10% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 300 | -20.5% | -1.41 | 15% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 7.7% | 0.48 | 10% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | -5.8% | -1.10 | 1% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 8.8% | 1.63 | 1% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 3.1% | 0.39 | 0% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 4.5% | 0.39 | 17% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -17.2% | -1.20 | 10% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -4.4% | -0.35 | 11% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -2.5% | -0.21 | 12% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 0.2% | 0.01 | 12% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | -9.4% | -1.00 | 0% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 4.6% | 0.42 | 20% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 10.0% | 0.64 | 9% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 3.3% | 0.21 | 14% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -5.3% | -0.51 | 12% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 6.3% | 0.41 | 10% |
Trades (full period)
latest 100 of 251
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 2026-10-14 | $375.23 | $367.16 | -0.75% | 2 | |
| 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-12 | $382.70 | $378.03 | 1.48% | 2 | |
| 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $377.81 | $375.00 | -0.76% | 2 | |
| 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-02 | $425.30 | $393.45 | 0.73% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-28 | 2026-06-02 | $442.10 | $423.74 | -4.61% | 4 | |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-20 | $404.11 | $417.26 | -1.31% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-18 | $433.45 | $409.99 | -4.24% | 5 | |
| 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-11 | $428.35 | $445.00 | 3.05% | 2 | |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-21 | $392.50 | $386.42 | -1.78% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-30 | $454.53 | $454.43 | 2.22% | 18 | |
| 2025-09-12 | 2025-09-15 | $395.94 | $410.04 | 5.72% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-11 | $347.79 | $368.81 | 0.03% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-08 | 2025-09-09 | $346.40 | $346.97 | -1.17% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-29 | 2025-09-02 | $333.87 | $329.36 | -2.96% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-27 | 2025-08-28 | $349.60 | $345.98 | -0.63% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-26 | $346.60 | $351.67 | 1.39% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-19 | 2025-08-20 | $329.31 | $323.90 | -1.56% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-15 | 2025-08-18 | $330.56 | $335.16 | -1.36% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-13 | 2025-08-14 | $339.38 | $335.58 | -0.50% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-12 | $339.03 | $340.84 | 2.11% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-30 | $321.20 | $319.04 | -1.24% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-24 | $332.56 | $305.30 | -0.05% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-22 | $328.49 | $332.11 | -0.44% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-06-03 | $342.69 | $344.27 | -1.03% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-27 | 2025-05-28 | $362.89 | $356.90 | 5.39% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-22 | 2025-05-23 | $341.04 | $339.34 | 1.37% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-05-13 | $318.38 | $334.07 | 5.23% | 2 | |
| 2024-10-03 | 2024-10-04 | $240.66 | $250.08 | -2.84% | 2 | |
| 2024-10-01 | 2024-10-02 | $258.02 | $249.02 | -1.26% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-27 | 2024-09-30 | $260.46 | $261.63 | 1.80% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-25 | 2024-09-26 | $257.02 | $254.22 | 0.70% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-23 | 2024-09-24 | $250.00 | $254.27 | 3.78% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-18 | 2024-09-19 | $227.20 | $243.92 | -0.40% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-16 | 2024-09-17 | $226.78 | $227.87 | -1.38% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-09 | $210.73 | $216.27 | -6.91% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-11 | 2024-07-12 | $241.03 | $248.23 | -6.91% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-09 | 2024-07-10 | $262.33 | $263.26 | 2.81% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-05 | 2024-07-08 | $251.52 | $252.94 | 1.50% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-02 | 2024-07-03 | $231.26 | $246.39 | 7.99% | 2 | |
| 2024-06-28 | 2024-07-01 | $197.88 | $209.86 | 0.03% | 2 | |
| 2024-06-26 | 2024-06-27 | $196.37 | $197.42 | 3.69% | 2 | |
| 2024-06-24 | 2024-06-25 | $182.58 | $187.35 | -0.35% | 2 | |
| 2024-06-20 | 2024-06-21 | $181.57 | $183.01 | -1.58% | 2 | |
| 2024-06-17 | 2024-06-18 | $187.44 | $184.86 | 4.07% | 2 | |
| 2024-01-02 | 2024-01-03 | $248.42 | $238.45 | -0.18% | 2 | |
| 2023-12-28 | 2023-12-29 | $253.18 | $248.48 | -2.69% | 2 | |
| 2023-12-26 | 2023-12-27 | $256.61 | $261.44 | 1.13% | 2 | |
| 2023-12-21 | 2023-12-22 | $254.50 | $252.54 | 2.22% | 2 | |
| 2023-12-19 | 2023-12-20 | $257.22 | $247.14 | 1.47% | 2 | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2023-12-18 | $253.50 | $252.08 | 0.62% | 2 | |
| 2023-12-11 | 2023-12-12 | $239.74 | $237.01 | -1.50% | 2 | |
| 2023-12-07 | 2023-12-08 | $242.64 | $243.84 | 0.93% | 2 | |
| 2023-12-05 | 2023-12-06 | $238.72 | $239.37 | 0.91% | 2 | |
| 2023-12-01 | 2023-12-04 | $238.83 | $235.58 | -0.58% | 2 | |
| 2023-11-29 | 2023-11-30 | $244.14 | $240.08 | -1.00% | 2 | |
| 2023-11-22 | 2023-11-24 | $234.21 | $235.45 | -2.48% | 2 | |
| 2023-11-16 | 2023-11-17 | $233.59 | $234.30 | -3.20% | 2 | |
| 2023-10-12 | 2023-10-13 | $258.87 | $251.12 | -1.41% | 2 | |
| 2023-10-10 | 2023-10-11 | $263.62 | $262.99 | 1.06% | 2 | |
| 2023-10-06 | 2023-10-09 | $260.53 | $259.67 | -0.01% | 2 | |
| 2023-09-20 | 2023-09-21 | $262.59 | $255.70 | -1.33% | 2 | |
| 2023-09-18 | 2023-09-19 | $265.28 | $266.50 | -2.81% | 2 | |
| 2023-09-14 | 2023-09-15 | $276.04 | $274.39 | 1.24% | 2 | |
| 2023-09-12 | 2023-09-13 | $267.48 | $271.30 | -1.94% | 2 | |
| 2023-09-06 | 2023-09-07 | $251.92 | $251.49 | -1.58% | 2 | |
| 2023-09-01 | 2023-09-05 | $245.01 | $256.49 | -4.21% | 2 | |
| 2023-08-30 | 2023-08-31 | $256.90 | $258.08 | -0.25% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-06 | 2023-07-07 | $276.54 | $274.43 | -1.84% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-23 | 2023-06-26 | $256.60 | $241.05 | -2.58% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-21 | 2023-06-22 | $259.46 | $264.61 | -4.53% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-16 | 2023-06-20 | $260.54 | $274.45 | 1.29% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-14 | 2023-06-15 | $256.79 | $255.90 | -0.75% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-12 | 2023-06-13 | $249.83 | $258.71 | 1.62% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-08 | 2023-06-09 | $234.86 | $244.40 | 3.50% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-06 | 2023-06-07 | $221.31 | $224.57 | 1.20% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-06-05 | $213.97 | $217.61 | 2.32% | 2 | |
| 2023-05-31 | 2023-06-01 | $203.93 | $207.52 | 0.94% | 2 | |
| 2023-04-05 | 2023-04-06 | $185.52 | $185.06 | -3.09% | 2 | |
| 2023-04-03 | 2023-04-04 | $194.77 | $192.58 | -5.05% | 2 | |
| 2023-03-30 | 2023-03-31 | $195.28 | $207.46 | 0.42% | 2 | |
| 2023-03-28 | 2023-03-29 | $189.19 | $193.88 | -1.25% | 2 | |
| 2023-03-24 | 2023-03-27 | $190.41 | $191.81 | -0.91% | 2 | |
| 2022-09-21 | 2022-09-22 | $300.80 | $288.59 | -2.21% | 2 | |
| 2022-09-19 | 2022-09-20 | $309.07 | $308.73 | 1.35% | 2 | |
| 2022-09-15 | 2022-09-16 | $303.75 | $303.35 | 0.14% | 2 | |
| 2022-09-13 | 2022-09-14 | $292.13 | $302.61 | -3.39% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-18 | 2022-08-19 | $302.87 | $296.67 | -0.46% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-16 | 2022-08-17 | $306.56 | $304.00 | -0.87% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-10 | 2022-08-11 | $294.36 | $286.63 | 2.95% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-08 | 2022-08-09 | $290.42 | $283.33 | 0.47% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-04 | 2022-08-05 | $308.63 | $288.17 | 0.16% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-02 | 2022-08-03 | $300.59 | $307.40 | 0.73% | 2 | |
| 2022-04-08 | 2022-04-11 | $341.83 | $325.31 | -2.56% | 2 | |
| 2022-04-04 | 2022-04-07 | $381.82 | $352.42 | -2.97% | 4 | |
| 2022-03-29 | 2022-04-01 | $366.52 | $361.53 | -1.20% | 4 | |
| 2022-03-25 | 2022-03-28 | $336.88 | $363.95 | -0.42% | 2 | |
| 2022-03-23 | 2022-03-24 | $333.04 | $337.97 | 0.25% | 2 | |
| 2022-03-21 | 2022-03-22 | $307.05 | $331.33 | 1.23% | 2 | |
| 2021-12-28 | 2021-12-31 | $362.82 | $352.26 | -1.89% | 4 | |
| 2021-11-23 | 2021-11-24 | $369.68 | $372.00 | -3.47% | 2 |