Strategy Zoo / S1671
PriceMomentum_V1671
ARCHIVEDhybridstructuraladded entry filter: volume_breakout == 1
Fitness
0.5337
Generation
77
Complexity
4
Created
2026-10-16
Lineage
Parents (1)
changed ret_20d threshold 0.184 -> 0.073
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# PriceMomentum_V1671 [hybrid]
if flat and (ret_20d > 0.073 and volume_breakout == 1):
position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.0017:
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 18.3% | 49.0% | 3.1% | 19.9% |
| Total Return | 282.0% | 230.6% | 12.3% | 1360.5% |
| Sharpe | 0.77 | 1.37 | 0.25 | 0.82 |
| Sortino | 0.68 | 0.87 | 0.12 | 0.59 |
| Calmar | 0.49 | 1.80 | 0.15 | 0.54 |
| Volatility | 26.2% | 33.0% | 20.0% | 26.4% |
| Max DD | -37.2% | -27.2% | -21.0% | -37.2% |
| Win Rate | 52.6% | 75.0% | 50.0% | 55.6% |
| Avg Win | 24.4% | 53.8% | 16.7% | 34.3% |
| Avg Loss | -8.6% | -3.2% | -9.0% | -8.2% |
| Payoff | 2.84 | 10.00 | 1.85 | 4.18 |
| Expectancy | 8.8% | 39.6% | 3.8% | 15.4% |
| Profit Factor | 3.16 | 10.00 | 1.85 | 5.22 |
| Trades | 19 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| Avg Holding Days | 27.7 | 35.8 | 25.5 | 30.3 |
| Turnover | 4.9 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 3.7 |
| Exposure | 27.5% | 18.4% | 10.3% | 21.3% |
Growth of $100
PriceMomentum_V1671 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V1671 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1.6% | 0.21 | -9.3% | 1 |
| 2017 | 0.5% | 0.13 | -18.8% | 3 |
| 2018 | -20.3% | -0.79 | -28.5% | 3 |
| 2019 | 39.5% | 2.02 | -8.5% | 0 |
| 2020 | 141.8% | 2.02 | -27.2% | 2 |
| 2021 | 31.6% | 1.13 | -17.6% | 2 |
| 2022 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 279 | -10.8% | -1.48 | 3% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 1.4% | 0.04 | 45% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 183.4% | 3.26 | 67% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | -17.4% | -0.55 | 22% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 445 | 16.9% | 1.94 | 3% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 251 | 7.0% | 0.36 | 11% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 819 | -5.0% | -0.39 | 4% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 300 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 21.2% | 0.68 | 24% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | -1.7% | -0.83 | 0% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 49.8% | 1.47 | 53% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 333.2% | 4.70 | 86% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 49.7% | 1.42 | 30% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 16.6% | 0.90 | 33% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -11.7% | -0.54 | 17% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -5.2% | -0.30 | 19% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -6.3% | -0.45 | 9% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 49.9% | 1.34 | 55% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 114.2% | 2.93 | 45% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 105.5% | 1.78 | 36% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 31.3% | 0.70 | 19% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 14.6% | 1.67 | 3% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 74.5% | 2.42 | 26% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 6.9% | 0.46 | 5% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 80.5% | 1.83 | 33% |
Trades (full period)
27 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-10-23 | $410.04 | $448.98 | 10.65% | 29 | |
| 2024-11-11 | 2025-01-13 | $350.00 | $403.31 | 22.65% | 42 | |
| 2024-07-03 | 2024-08-02 | $246.39 | $207.67 | -6.41% | 22 | |
| 2024-04-30 | 2024-05-10 | $183.28 | $168.47 | -11.56% | 9 | |
| 2021-10-26 | 2021-12-01 | $339.48 | $365.00 | 11.48% | 26 | |
| 2020-11-19 | 2021-02-09 | $166.42 | $283.15 | 77.07% | 55 | |
| 2020-07-14 | 2020-08-10 | $101.12 | $94.57 | -3.16% | 20 | |
| 2019-10-25 | 2020-03-04 | $21.88 | $49.97 | 148.29% | 89 | |
| 2018-10-29 | 2018-12-19 | $22.32 | $22.20 | 1.65% | 36 | |
| 2018-08-03 | 2018-08-20 | $23.21 | $20.56 | -12.77% | 12 | |
| 2018-06-13 | 2018-07-06 | $22.99 | $20.59 | -9.99% | 17 | |
| 2017-06-12 | 2017-07-06 | $23.93 | $20.59 | -8.64% | 18 | |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-24 | $20.25 | $20.68 | 1.59% | 36 | |
| 2017-01-05 | 2017-02-28 | $15.12 | $16.67 | 8.26% | 37 | |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-05-03 | $16.47 | $15.49 | 1.57% | 22 | |
| 2015-04-28 | 2015-07-09 | $15.37 | $17.19 | 9.89% | 51 | |
| 2014-09-08 | 2014-09-16 | $18.81 | $17.38 | -8.66% | 7 | |
| 2014-06-17 | 2014-07-16 | $15.44 | $14.48 | -2.43% | 21 | |
| 2014-01-15 | 2014-03-26 | $10.94 | $14.20 | 36.42% | 49 | |
| 2013-07-18 | 2013-10-22 | $7.94 | $11.44 | 43.25% | 68 | |
| 2013-04-02 | 2013-06-26 | $2.96 | $7.05 | 132.63% | 61 | |
| 2013-02-12 | 2013-02-22 | $2.53 | $2.41 | -8.67% | 8 | |
| 2012-11-07 | 2012-12-31 | $2.10 | $2.26 | 6.43% | 37 | |
| 2012-09-18 | 2012-09-24 | $2.09 | $2.04 | -7.93% | 5 | |
| 2012-06-21 | 2012-06-27 | $2.15 | $2.13 | -6.62% | 5 | |
| 2012-03-27 | 2012-04-10 | $2.53 | $2.16 | -11.54% | 10 | |
| 2012-02-16 | 2012-03-23 | $2.28 | $2.27 | 2.18% | 26 |