Strategy Zoo / S1661
LongTermTrend_V1661
ARCHIVEDhybridcrossoverentry from LongTermTrend_V1343, exit from LongTermTrend_V1516
Fitness
0.7015
Generation
77
Complexity
12
Created
2026-10-16
Lineage
Parents (2)
changed cumret_252d threshold -0.1997 -> -0.4102
logic of LongTermTrend_V1249 with risk overlay of PriceMomentum_V1133
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# LongTermTrend_V1661 [hybrid]
require regime.bubble in ['EXPENSIVE', 'EXTREME']
if flat and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.4102) and ret_20d > 0.05):
position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.0017:
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 23.2% | 102.8% | 6.2% | 31.6% |
| Total Return | 430.7% | 734.2% | 25.5% | 5618.4% |
| Sharpe | 1.02 | 1.84 | 0.43 | 1.13 |
| Sortino | 0.74 | 1.42 | 0.24 | 0.75 |
| Calmar | 0.98 | 3.05 | 0.25 | 0.94 |
| Volatility | 23.1% | 43.7% | 17.8% | 27.6% |
| Max DD | -23.8% | -33.7% | -24.8% | -33.7% |
| Win Rate | 50.0% | 71.4% | 33.3% | 51.7% |
| Avg Win | 32.3% | 59.5% | 23.6% | 41.7% |
| Avg Loss | -3.2% | -1.5% | -4.5% | -3.4% |
| Payoff | 10.00 | 10.00 | 5.20 | 10.00 |
| Expectancy | 14.5% | 42.1% | 4.8% | 19.9% |
| Profit Factor | 10.00 | 10.00 | 2.60 | 10.00 |
| Trades | 16 | 7 | 6 | 29 |
| Avg Holding Days | 20.6 | 31.6 | 15.7 | 22.6 |
| Turnover | 4.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 3.9 |
| Exposure | 16.1% | 28.3% | 9.3% | 16.9% |
Growth of $100
LongTermTrend_V1661 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
LongTermTrend_V1661 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2017 | -8.5% | -0.25 | -23.2% | 8 |
| 2018 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2019 | 9.5% | 1.31 | -3.8% | 0 |
| 2020 | 577.3% | 3.01 | -33.7% | 6 |
| 2021 | 18.1% | 0.99 | -10.1% | 1 |
| 2022 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 279 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 5.9% | 0.14 | 64% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 183.9% | 3.27 | 67% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | 21.3% | 0.86 | 14% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 445 | 18.5% | 2.09 | 4% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 251 | -25.6% | -1.23 | 14% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 819 | -2.6% | -0.98 | 0% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 300 | -1.0% | -0.31 | 1% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 20.2% | 0.71 | 23% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 38.7% | 1.01 | 70% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 403.3% | 5.47 | 97% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 51.6% | 1.54 | 22% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 10.0% | 0.91 | 12% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | 6.6% | 0.35 | 14% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -3.2% | -1.01 | 0% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | 3.1% | 0.40 | 5% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 50.3% | 1.49 | 33% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 77.3% | 1.44 | 58% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 347.4% | 4.17 | 93% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 115.7% | 1.79 | 41% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 19.5% | 1.49 | 8% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 86.5% | 2.65 | 30% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | 4.9% | 0.29 | 5% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 140.4% | 2.47 | 48% |
Trades (full period)
29 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-13 | $468.37 | $401.99 | -5.87% | 9 | |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-10-27 | $433.72 | $452.42 | -3.60% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-10-23 | $410.04 | $448.98 | 10.65% | 29 | |
| 2025-05-28 | 2025-06-02 | $356.90 | $342.69 | -4.72% | 4 | |
| 2025-05-15 | 2025-05-22 | $342.82 | $341.04 | -3.95% | 6 | |
| 2024-11-07 | 2025-01-13 | $296.91 | $403.31 | 36.54% | 44 | |
| 2020-11-19 | 2021-02-09 | $166.42 | $283.15 | 77.07% | 55 | |
| 2020-10-22 | 2020-10-27 | $141.93 | $141.56 | -0.76% | 4 | |
| 2020-10-16 | 2020-10-19 | $146.56 | $143.61 | -2.25% | 2 | |
| 2020-10-07 | 2020-10-14 | $141.77 | $153.77 | 7.68% | 6 | |
| 2020-08-14 | 2020-09-24 | $110.05 | $129.26 | 17.09% | 29 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-08-10 | $47.33 | $94.57 | 122.74% | 83 | |
| 2019-12-17 | 2020-03-04 | $25.27 | $49.97 | 95.02% | 53 | |
| 2017-09-18 | 2017-09-25 | $25.67 | $23.00 | -7.75% | 6 | |
| 2017-08-25 | 2017-09-05 | $23.20 | $23.31 | 0.50% | 7 | |
| 2017-08-04 | 2017-08-22 | $23.79 | $22.76 | -2.85% | 13 | |
| 2017-06-01 | 2017-07-06 | $22.69 | $20.59 | -4.27% | 25 | |
| 2017-04-07 | 2017-05-24 | $20.17 | $20.68 | 1.53% | 33 | |
| 2017-03-28 | 2017-04-06 | $18.50 | $19.91 | 8.95% | 8 | |
| 2017-02-03 | 2017-02-28 | $16.76 | $16.67 | -2.31% | 17 | |
| 2017-01-25 | 2017-01-31 | $16.96 | $16.80 | -1.76% | 5 | |
| 2014-01-15 | 2014-03-26 | $10.94 | $14.20 | 36.42% | 49 | |
| 2014-01-08 | 2014-01-10 | $10.09 | $9.71 | -1.42% | 3 | |
| 2013-12-23 | 2014-01-07 | $9.57 | $9.96 | 2.42% | 10 | |
| 2013-12-13 | 2013-12-20 | $9.84 | $9.55 | -4.77% | 6 | |
| 2013-07-01 | 2013-10-22 | $7.81 | $11.44 | 60.46% | 80 | |
| 2013-04-11 | 2013-06-26 | $2.91 | $7.05 | 144.15% | 54 | |
| 2013-02-14 | 2013-02-15 | $2.55 | $2.47 | -0.67% | 2 | |
| 2013-01-28 | 2013-02-12 | $2.54 | $2.53 | 3.69% | 12 |