Strategy Zoo / S1615
LongTermTrend_V1615
ARCHIVEDhybridparameterchanged ret_20d threshold 0.05 -> 0.1314
Fitness
0.7165
Generation
74
Complexity
13
Created
2026-10-15
Lineage
Parents (1)
added entry filter: sma_50_slope > -0.005
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# LongTermTrend_V1615 [hybrid]
require regime.bubble in ['EXPENSIVE', 'EXTREME']
if flat and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > -0.0012) or ret_20d > 0.0257) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.1314 and sma_50_slope > -0.005):
position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.1003:
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 21.3% | 119.7% | 9.8% | 33.7% |
| Total Return | 366.9% | 960.2% | 42.2% | 7146.1% |
| Sharpe | 0.95 | 1.94 | 0.59 | 1.16 |
| Sortino | 0.69 | 1.69 | 0.36 | 0.81 |
| Calmar | 0.89 | 3.55 | 0.46 | 1.00 |
| Volatility | 23.1% | 45.9% | 18.9% | 28.5% |
| Max DD | -23.9% | -33.7% | -21.2% | -33.7% |
| Win Rate | 50.0% | 100.0% | 50.0% | 58.8% |
| Avg Win | 62.3% | 128.3% | 25.8% | 75.9% |
| Avg Loss | -2.7% | 0.0% | -4.3% | -3.2% |
| Payoff | 10.00 | 5.00 | 5.96 | 10.00 |
| Expectancy | 29.8% | 128.3% | 10.8% | 43.4% |
| Profit Factor | 10.00 | 5.00 | 5.96 | 10.00 |
| Trades | 10 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| Avg Holding Days | 32.4 | 85.0 | 25.5 | 40.5 |
| Turnover | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Exposure | 16.0% | 33.3% | 10.3% | 18.1% |
Growth of $100
LongTermTrend_V1615 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
LongTermTrend_V1615 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2017 | -9.6% | -0.27 | -23.9% | 5 |
| 2018 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2019 | 3.4% | 0.65 | -3.8% | 0 |
| 2020 | 842.7% | 3.35 | -33.7% | 2 |
| 2021 | 7.7% | 0.48 | -10.9% | 1 |
| 2022 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 278 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 30.5% | 0.70 | 71% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 210.8% | 3.53 | 75% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | 26.4% | 1.00 | 16% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 445 | 18.6% | 2.09 | 4% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | -17.6% | -0.79 | 17% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 818 | -2.6% | -0.98 | 0% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 300 | -1.0% | -0.31 | 1% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 29.2% | 0.97 | 25% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 19.5% | 0.51 | 69% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 416.1% | 5.63 | 100% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 49.5% | 1.49 | 22% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 5.1% | 0.49 | 11% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | 9.9% | 0.50 | 16% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -2.3% | -0.95 | 0% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | 7.7% | 0.99 | 5% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 43.8% | 1.29 | 33% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 96.2% | 1.59 | 83% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 378.9% | 4.47 | 95% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 143.0% | 2.16 | 44% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 7.7% | 0.38 | 19% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 92.6% | 2.63 | 33% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | -0.8% | -0.78 | 0% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | 12.3% | 0.63 | 7% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 152.8% | 2.57 | 56% |
Trades (full period)
17 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-11-13 | $410.04 | $401.99 | 8.54% | 44 | |
| 2025-05-28 | 2025-06-02 | $356.90 | $342.69 | -4.72% | 4 | |
| 2025-05-15 | 2025-05-22 | $342.82 | $341.04 | -3.95% | 6 | |
| 2024-11-07 | 2025-01-17 | $296.91 | $426.50 | 43.14% | 48 | |
| 2020-10-07 | 2021-02-19 | $141.77 | $260.43 | 89.82% | 93 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-09-30 | $47.33 | $143.00 | 221.27% | 119 | |
| 2019-12-20 | 2020-03-05 | $27.04 | $48.30 | 85.13% | 51 | |
| 2017-08-07 | 2017-09-26 | $23.68 | $23.02 | -3.53% | 36 | |
| 2017-04-07 | 2017-07-07 | $20.17 | $20.88 | 3.19% | 63 | |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-04-06 | $20.25 | $19.91 | -1.38% | 3 | |
| 2017-02-09 | 2017-02-28 | $17.95 | $16.67 | -6.23% | 13 | |
| 2017-01-25 | 2017-01-31 | $16.96 | $16.80 | -1.76% | 5 | |
| 2014-01-21 | 2014-03-26 | $11.78 | $14.20 | 29.41% | 46 | |
| 2013-12-23 | 2014-01-07 | $9.57 | $9.96 | 2.42% | 10 | |
| 2013-04-15 | 2013-10-24 | $2.89 | $11.54 | 275.24% | 136 | |
| 2013-02-14 | 2013-02-15 | $2.55 | $2.47 | -0.67% | 2 | |
| 2013-01-30 | 2013-02-12 | $2.50 | $2.53 | 1.03% | 10 |