Strategy Zoo / S1597
LongTermTrend_V1597
ARCHIVEDhybridcrossoverentry = LongTermTrend_V1443 OR PriceMomentum_V1553
Fitness
0.6953
Generation
74
Complexity
22
Created
2026-10-15
Lineage
Parents (2)
changed sma_200_slope threshold -0.0024 -> -0.0041
changed cumret_252d threshold -0.1997 -> 0.0852
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# LongTermTrend_V1597 [hybrid]
if flat and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > -0.0041) or ret_20d > 0.085) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > 0.0541) or ((ret_20d > 0.05 and (((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.0923) and ret_20d > -0.0674 and cumret_252d > 0.0852)) or ret_20d > 0.184)):
position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.006:
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 25.5% | 125.6% | 10.1% | 37.0% |
| Total Return | 514.1% | 1048.9% | 43.8% | 10344.9% |
| Sharpe | 0.88 | 1.87 | 0.45 | 1.04 |
| Sortino | 0.90 | 2.05 | 0.42 | 1.04 |
| Calmar | 0.49 | 3.72 | 0.25 | 0.71 |
| Volatility | 31.3% | 50.4% | 34.4% | 36.8% |
| Max DD | -52.3% | -33.7% | -41.2% | -52.3% |
| Win Rate | 44.1% | 62.5% | 30.0% | 44.3% |
| Avg Win | 24.0% | 39.4% | 23.6% | 31.3% |
| Avg Loss | -5.9% | -8.0% | -5.9% | -6.2% |
| Payoff | 4.08 | 4.92 | 3.99 | 5.03 |
| Expectancy | 7.3% | 21.6% | 2.9% | 10.4% |
| Profit Factor | 3.22 | 8.19 | 1.71 | 4.00 |
| Trades | 34 | 16 | 20 | 70 |
| Avg Holding Days | 24.3 | 27.1 | 19.7 | 24.3 |
| Turnover | 8.6 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 9.5 |
| Exposure | 41.7% | 55.3% | 39.4% | 43.9% |
Growth of $100
LongTermTrend_V1597 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
LongTermTrend_V1597 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 14.0% | 0.96 | -11.7% | 2 |
| 2017 | 0.2% | 0.14 | -29.8% | 7 |
| 2018 | -29.8% | -1.23 | -32.9% | 6 |
| 2019 | 42.2% | 1.57 | -13.9% | 1 |
| 2020 | 541.3% | 2.93 | -33.7% | 6 |
| 2021 | 84.9% | 1.85 | -17.6% | 5 |
| 2022 | -7.1% | -0.10 | -21.5% | 5 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 278 | -8.4% | -0.32 | 26% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 62.6% | 1.38 | 67% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 183.9% | 3.27 | 67% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | 18.7% | 0.40 | 45% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 445 | 54.1% | 2.22 | 36% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | -56.0% | -1.64 | 40% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 818 | 1.0% | 0.03 | 35% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 300 | -0.2% | -0.01 | 37% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 46.4% | 1.09 | 52% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | -0.3% | -0.03 | 8% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 55.9% | 1.42 | 74% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 403.3% | 5.47 | 97% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 49.6% | 1.22 | 37% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 37.7% | 1.60 | 51% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -12.9% | -0.48 | 35% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -1.4% | -0.06 | 32% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -8.1% | -0.33 | 32% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 66.9% | 1.60 | 68% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 45.2% | 2.08 | 12% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 67.5% | 1.25 | 60% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 347.4% | 4.17 | 93% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 99.9% | 1.47 | 51% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 43.7% | 1.68 | 61% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 118.7% | 2.69 | 56% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 25.0% | 0.78 | 42% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | 4.5% | 0.14 | 42% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 152.0% | 2.44 | 74% |
Trades (full period)
70 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-30 | $348.95 | $354.81 | -2.96% | 27 | |
| 2026-05-05 | 2026-06-08 | $389.37 | $408.95 | -0.58% | 24 | |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-24 | $392.50 | $376.30 | -6.90% | 5 | |
| 2025-12-15 | 2026-01-05 | $475.31 | $451.67 | -4.74% | 14 | |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-13 | $468.37 | $401.99 | -5.87% | 9 | |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-10-27 | $433.72 | $452.42 | -3.60% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-10-23 | $346.60 | $448.98 | 28.85% | 43 | |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-20 | $339.03 | $323.90 | -0.30% | 8 | |
| 2025-05-06 | 2025-06-12 | $275.35 | $319.11 | 16.24% | 27 | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-02 | $282.16 | $287.21 | -4.14% | 3 | |
| 2025-04-10 | 2025-04-22 | $252.40 | $237.97 | -16.60% | 8 | |
| 2024-11-07 | 2025-01-13 | $296.91 | $403.31 | 36.54% | 44 | |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024-10-14 | $210.73 | $219.16 | -5.57% | 27 | |
| 2024-07-03 | 2024-08-02 | $246.39 | $207.67 | -6.41% | 22 | |
| 2024-05-15 | 2024-05-29 | $173.99 | $176.19 | -0.65% | 10 | |
| 2024-04-30 | 2024-05-10 | $183.28 | $168.47 | -11.56% | 9 | |
| 2023-11-17 | 2024-01-08 | $234.30 | $240.45 | 1.47% | 34 | |
| 2023-09-15 | 2023-09-28 | $274.39 | $246.38 | -13.05% | 10 | |
| 2023-05-25 | 2023-07-24 | $184.47 | $269.06 | 41.88% | 40 | |
| 2023-01-27 | 2023-03-08 | $177.90 | $182.00 | 16.90% | 28 | |
| 2022-09-21 | 2022-09-23 | $300.80 | $275.33 | -6.71% | 3 | |
| 2022-07-14 | 2022-08-29 | $238.31 | $284.82 | 21.29% | 33 | |
| 2022-06-24 | 2022-06-29 | $245.71 | $228.49 | -1.22% | 4 | |
| 2022-03-22 | 2022-04-21 | $331.33 | $336.26 | 5.88% | 22 | |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-01-24 | $383.20 | $310.00 | -21.49% | 14 | |
| 2021-08-04 | 2021-12-01 | $236.97 | $365.00 | 60.97% | 84 | |
| 2021-06-14 | 2021-07-23 | $205.90 | $214.46 | 6.24% | 29 | |
| 2021-04-14 | 2021-05-04 | $244.08 | $224.53 | -10.34% | 15 | |
| 2021-04-05 | 2021-04-12 | $230.35 | $233.99 | 2.11% | 6 | |
| 2020-11-19 | 2021-02-09 | $166.42 | $283.15 | 77.07% | 55 | |
| 2020-10-22 | 2020-10-29 | $141.93 | $136.94 | -4.12% | 6 | |
| 2020-10-16 | 2020-10-20 | $146.56 | $140.65 | -4.21% | 3 | |
| 2020-10-07 | 2020-10-14 | $141.77 | $153.77 | 7.68% | 6 | |
| 2020-08-14 | 2020-09-24 | $110.05 | $129.26 | 17.09% | 29 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-08-10 | $47.33 | $94.57 | 122.74% | 83 | |
| 2019-10-25 | 2020-03-04 | $21.88 | $49.97 | 148.29% | 89 | |
| 2019-07-01 | 2019-08-06 | $15.14 | $15.38 | 1.97% | 26 | |
| 2018-10-29 | 2018-12-19 | $22.32 | $22.20 | 1.65% | 36 | |
| 2018-08-03 | 2018-08-20 | $23.21 | $20.56 | -12.77% | 12 | |
| 2018-06-14 | 2018-07-06 | $23.85 | $20.59 | -10.51% | 16 | |
| 2018-03-13 | 2018-03-19 | $22.79 | $20.90 | -7.18% | 5 | |
| 2018-01-22 | 2018-02-07 | $23.44 | $23.00 | -4.78% | 13 | |
| 2018-01-09 | 2018-01-12 | $22.25 | $22.41 | 0.26% | 4 | |
| 2017-12-12 | 2017-12-28 | $22.74 | $21.02 | -5.44% | 12 | |
| 2017-09-18 | 2017-09-26 | $25.67 | $23.02 | -9.35% | 7 | |
| 2017-08-25 | 2017-09-06 | $23.20 | $22.97 | -1.15% | 8 | |
| 2017-08-04 | 2017-08-22 | $23.79 | $22.76 | -2.85% | 13 | |
| 2017-06-01 | 2017-07-06 | $22.69 | $20.59 | -4.27% | 25 | |
| 2017-03-28 | 2017-05-24 | $18.50 | $20.68 | 12.23% | 41 | |
| 2017-01-04 | 2017-02-28 | $15.13 | $16.67 | 13.25% | 38 | |
| 2016-07-26 | 2016-08-17 | $15.30 | $14.88 | -2.98% | 17 | |
| 2016-03-08 | 2016-05-03 | $13.51 | $15.49 | 17.55% | 40 | |
| 2015-12-17 | 2015-12-29 | $15.56 | $15.81 | -2.57% | 8 | |
| 2015-09-23 | 2015-09-30 | $17.40 | $16.56 | -5.67% | 6 | |
| 2015-08-06 | 2015-08-07 | $16.41 | $16.17 | -9.08% | 2 | |
| 2015-04-28 | 2015-07-27 | $15.37 | $16.87 | 14.39% | 63 | |
| 2014-11-11 | 2014-12-02 | $16.74 | $15.43 | -4.44% | 15 | |
| 2014-08-05 | 2014-09-16 | $15.90 | $17.38 | 6.22% | 30 | |
| 2014-06-09 | 2014-07-16 | $13.69 | $14.48 | 5.27% | 27 | |
| 2014-05-28 | 2014-06-03 | $14.02 | $13.66 | -3.44% | 5 | |
| 2014-01-15 | 2014-03-26 | $10.94 | $14.20 | 36.42% | 49 | |
| 2013-12-13 | 2014-01-14 | $9.84 | $10.75 | -5.70% | 21 | |
| 2013-07-01 | 2013-10-22 | $7.81 | $11.44 | 60.46% | 80 | |
| 2013-03-26 | 2013-06-26 | $2.52 | $7.05 | 172.31% | 65 | |
| 2013-01-24 | 2013-02-22 | $2.47 | $2.41 | -2.53% | 21 | |
| 2012-11-06 | 2012-12-31 | $2.08 | $2.26 | 5.25% | 38 | |
| 2012-09-18 | 2012-09-24 | $2.09 | $2.04 | -7.93% | 5 | |
| 2012-08-24 | 2012-09-06 | $1.97 | $1.90 | -9.26% | 9 | |
| 2012-06-19 | 2012-07-20 | $2.14 | $2.12 | 1.15% | 23 | |
| 2012-02-02 | 2012-04-10 | $2.02 | $2.16 | 11.85% | 47 |