Strategy Zoo / S1532
LongTermTrend_V1532
ARCHIVEDhybridstructuralreduce exposure to 36% during EXTREME; restricted to bubble regimes ['EXTREME', 'NORMAL']
Fitness
0.3832
Generation
70
Complexity
29
Created
2026-10-13
Lineage
Parents (1)
changed macd_hist threshold 0.0 -> 1.0705; changed dist_sma_50 threshold -0.0774 -> -0.1429
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# LongTermTrend_V1532 [hybrid]
require regime.bubble in ['EXTREME', 'NORMAL']
if flat and (((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > -0.0024) or ret_20d > 0.085) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997 and dist_sma_50 > -0.1429) or ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) or ((breakout_50 == 1 and rel_volume > 1.5045) or ((macd_hist > 1.0705 and close > sma_50) and sma_50 > sma_200)))) and sma_20 < close and macd_hist > -2.6055):
position = 1.0
if long and macd_hist < 0.0:
position = 0.0 # exit to cash
if regime.bubble == "EXTREME": position *= 0.36Backtest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 4.3% | 31.6% | 13.9% | 11.9% |
| Total Return | 39.9% | 128.2% | 63.3% | 421.3% |
| Sharpe | 0.29 | 1.12 | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| Sortino | 0.24 | 1.11 | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| Calmar | 0.11 | 1.46 | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Volatility | 25.3% | 27.9% | 31.2% | 27.4% |
| Max DD | -40.5% | -21.6% | -44.0% | -44.0% |
| Win Rate | 44.7% | 52.5% | 38.8% | 44.8% |
| Avg Win | 6.2% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 7.1% |
| Avg Loss | -3.8% | -2.1% | -4.0% | -3.6% |
| Payoff | 1.61 | 3.04 | 2.54 | 1.99 |
| Expectancy | 0.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| Profit Factor | 1.30 | 3.36 | 1.61 | 1.61 |
| Trades | 103 | 40 | 49 | 192 |
| Avg Holding Days | 7.4 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 7.8 |
| Turnover | 22.9 | 18.1 | 23.6 | 22.1 |
| Exposure | 30.0% | 28.2% | 36.7% | 31.4% |
Growth of $100
LongTermTrend_V1532 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
LongTermTrend_V1532 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20.4% | 1.16 | -16.4% | 10 |
| 2017 | 11.6% | 0.97 | -8.3% | 8 |
| 2018 | -2.8% | 0.05 | -24.6% | 12 |
| 2019 | 1.8% | 0.22 | -29.2% | 9 |
| 2020 | 48.0% | 2.02 | -9.2% | 19 |
| 2021 | 28.5% | 0.98 | -16.8% | 13 |
| 2022 | 5.4% | 0.32 | -17.6% | 8 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 278 | -10.7% | -0.38 | 34% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 94.5% | 2.98 | 6% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 2.4% | 0.17 | 14% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | 8.8% | 0.23 | 36% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 443 | 34.9% | 1.35 | 40% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | -3.1% | -0.10 | 33% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 816 | 11.0% | 0.35 | 41% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 298 | 5.7% | 0.18 | 46% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 49.0% | 1.51 | 31% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | -6.5% | -0.35 | 20% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 8.8% | 0.93 | 4% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 96.8% | 3.97 | 28% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 17.0% | 0.55 | 25% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 21.0% | 1.02 | 38% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -22.3% | -0.96 | 26% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | 1.5% | 0.06 | 35% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | 14.0% | 0.52 | 36% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 11.1% | 0.41 | 31% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 50.4% | 1.94 | 20% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | -14.0% | -2.54 | 1% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 81.0% | 3.05 | 26% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 14.2% | 0.46 | 18% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 9.8% | 0.48 | 45% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 57.9% | 1.97 | 27% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 29.5% | 0.93 | 37% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | 20.6% | 0.77 | 33% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 31.0% | 1.07 | 28% |
Trades (full period)
latest 100 of 193
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | — | $377.81 | — | -0.80% | 4 | OPEN |
| 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-29 | $364.27 | $352.84 | -2.58% | 8 | |
| 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-17 | $348.95 | $366.20 | -1.52% | 18 | |
| 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-15 | $425.30 | $394.46 | -5.99% | 10 | |
| 2026-05-27 | 2026-06-02 | $440.36 | $423.74 | -4.27% | 5 | |
| 2026-05-22 | 2026-05-26 | $426.01 | $433.59 | 1.75% | 2 | |
| 2026-04-16 | 2026-05-21 | $388.90 | $417.85 | 6.24% | 26 | |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-30 | $454.53 | $454.43 | 2.68% | 18 | |
| 2025-09-05 | 2025-09-15 | $350.84 | $410.04 | 16.73% | 7 | |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-09-03 | $346.60 | $334.09 | -3.32% | 7 | |
| 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-22 | $329.65 | $340.01 | -0.87% | 11 | |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-08-01 | $328.49 | $302.63 | -6.67% | 10 | |
| 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-26 | $327.55 | $325.78 | -3.99% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-04 | 2025-06-05 | $332.05 | $284.70 | -3.75% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-06-03 | $342.69 | $344.27 | -1.29% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-22 | 2025-05-28 | $341.04 | $356.90 | 8.23% | 4 | |
| 2025-04-28 | 2025-05-15 | $285.88 | $342.82 | 21.77% | 14 | |
| 2025-04-10 | 2025-04-22 | $252.40 | $237.97 | -16.60% | 8 | |
| 2024-12-30 | 2024-12-31 | $417.41 | $403.84 | -1.26% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-26 | 2024-12-27 | $454.13 | $431.66 | -0.71% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-09 | 2024-12-24 | $389.79 | $462.28 | 3.87% | 12 | |
| 2024-12-05 | 2024-12-06 | $369.49 | $389.22 | 1.09% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-03 | 2024-12-04 | $351.42 | $357.93 | -0.64% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-25 | 2024-11-26 | $338.59 | $338.23 | -1.50% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-19 | 2024-11-22 | $346.00 | $352.56 | 0.03% | 4 | |
| 2024-11-12 | 2024-11-14 | $328.49 | $311.18 | -2.10% | 3 | |
| 2024-11-05 | 2024-11-07 | $251.44 | $296.91 | 18.58% | 3 | |
| 2024-10-09 | 2024-10-10 | $241.05 | $238.77 | -1.61% | 2 | |
| 2024-10-07 | 2024-10-08 | $240.83 | $244.50 | -3.90% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-04 | 2024-10-04 | $219.41 | $250.08 | 14.05% | 23 | |
| 2024-08-20 | 2024-08-30 | $221.10 | $214.11 | -7.57% | 9 | |
| 2024-07-23 | 2024-07-24 | $246.38 | $215.99 | -2.24% | 2 | |
| 2024-06-17 | 2024-07-22 | $187.44 | $251.51 | 34.11% | 24 | |
| 2024-04-30 | 2024-05-30 | $183.28 | $178.79 | -9.39% | 22 | |
| 2024-02-27 | 2024-03-07 | $199.73 | $178.65 | -11.64% | 8 | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2024-01-02 | $253.50 | $248.42 | -1.22% | 11 | |
| 2023-11-16 | 2023-12-14 | $233.59 | $251.05 | -1.66% | 20 | |
| 2023-10-06 | 2023-10-17 | $260.53 | $254.85 | -2.55% | 8 | |
| 2023-08-30 | 2023-09-25 | $256.90 | $246.99 | -4.97% | 18 | |
| 2023-07-20 | 2023-07-21 | $262.90 | $260.02 | -9.93% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-18 | 2023-07-19 | $293.34 | $291.26 | 0.82% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-14 | 2023-07-17 | $281.38 | $290.38 | 1.05% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-12 | 2023-07-13 | $271.99 | $277.90 | 0.61% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-10 | 2023-07-11 | $269.61 | $269.79 | -1.95% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-05 | 2023-07-07 | $282.48 | $274.43 | -1.37% | 3 | |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-07-03 | $261.77 | $279.82 | 1.46% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-28 | 2023-06-29 | $256.24 | $257.50 | 2.21% | 2 | |
| 2023-05-22 | 2023-06-27 | $188.87 | $250.21 | 33.55% | 25 | |
| 2023-03-24 | 2023-04-06 | $190.41 | $185.06 | -3.68% | 10 | |
| 2023-01-27 | 2023-02-23 | $177.90 | $202.07 | 25.09% | 19 | |
| 2022-09-13 | 2022-09-23 | $292.13 | $275.33 | -5.39% | 9 | |
| 2022-08-24 | 2022-08-25 | $297.10 | $296.07 | 0.02% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-22 | 2022-08-23 | $289.91 | $296.45 | -2.47% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | 2022-08-19 | $309.32 | $296.67 | 0.75% | 5 | |
| 2022-06-24 | 2022-08-12 | $245.71 | $300.03 | 21.70% | 35 | |
| 2022-03-21 | 2022-04-11 | $307.05 | $325.31 | 13.04% | 16 | |
| 2022-01-13 | 2022-01-14 | $343.85 | $349.87 | -6.94% | 2 | |
| 2021-12-28 | 2022-01-12 | $362.82 | $368.74 | -2.90% | 12 | |
| 2021-10-12 | 2021-11-11 | $268.57 | $354.50 | 34.59% | 23 | |
| 2021-10-08 | 2021-10-11 | $261.83 | $263.98 | -1.22% | 2 | |
| 2021-09-27 | 2021-10-07 | $263.79 | $264.54 | 0.88% | 9 | |
| 2021-09-23 | 2021-09-24 | $251.21 | $258.13 | 0.03% | 2 | |
| 2021-08-31 | 2021-09-21 | $245.24 | $246.46 | -0.30% | 15 | |
| 2021-08-26 | 2021-08-27 | $233.72 | $237.31 | -1.61% | 2 | |
| 2021-08-24 | 2021-08-25 | $236.16 | $237.07 | 0.11% | 2 | |
| 2021-08-19 | 2021-08-20 | $224.49 | $226.75 | -2.45% | 2 | |
| 2021-08-02 | 2021-08-17 | $236.56 | $221.90 | -0.35% | 12 | |
| 2021-07-13 | 2021-07-15 | $222.85 | $216.87 | -4.91% | 3 | |
| 2021-06-14 | 2021-07-12 | $205.90 | $228.57 | 7.50% | 20 | |
| 2021-04-05 | 2021-04-29 | $230.35 | $225.67 | 4.73% | 19 | |
| 2021-01-11 | 2021-01-12 | $270.40 | $283.15 | -2.89% | 2 | |
| 2020-12-08 | 2020-12-10 | $216.63 | $209.02 | -2.14% | 3 | |
| 2020-09-22 | 2020-09-23 | $141.41 | $126.79 | -2.09% | 2 | |
| 2020-09-18 | 2020-09-21 | $147.38 | $149.80 | 1.52% | 2 | |
| 2020-09-16 | 2020-09-17 | $147.25 | $141.14 | -0.71% | 2 | |
| 2020-08-18 | 2020-09-08 | $125.81 | $110.07 | 5.23% | 15 | |
| 2020-08-14 | 2020-08-17 | $110.05 | $122.38 | 0.59% | 2 | |
| 2020-07-30 | 2020-07-31 | $99.17 | $95.38 | -0.35% | 2 | |
| 2020-07-28 | 2020-07-29 | $98.43 | $99.94 | -1.55% | 2 | |
| 2020-07-02 | 2020-07-27 | $80.58 | $102.64 | 9.44% | 17 | |
| 2020-06-30 | 2020-07-01 | $71.99 | $74.64 | 2.44% | 2 | |
| 2020-06-03 | 2020-06-25 | $58.86 | $65.73 | 3.35% | 17 | |
| 2020-06-01 | 2020-06-02 | $59.87 | $58.77 | 2.65% | 2 | |
| 2020-05-28 | 2020-05-29 | $53.72 | $55.67 | -0.70% | 2 | |
| 2020-05-26 | 2020-05-27 | $54.59 | $54.68 | 0.02% | 2 | |
| 2020-05-21 | 2020-05-22 | $55.17 | $54.46 | 0.46% | 2 | |
| 2020-05-19 | 2020-05-20 | $53.87 | $54.37 | -0.32% | 2 | |
| 2020-05-15 | 2020-05-18 | $53.28 | $54.24 | -0.26% | 2 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-05-14 | $47.33 | $53.56 | 7.90% | 23 | |
| 2020-01-22 | 2020-02-26 | $37.97 | $51.92 | 16.14% | 25 | |
| 2019-12-16 | 2019-12-17 | $25.43 | $25.27 | 6.24% | 2 | |
| 2019-11-22 | 2019-11-25 | $22.20 | $22.42 | -6.33% | 2 | |
| 2019-10-11 | 2019-11-21 | $16.53 | $23.66 | 43.63% | 30 | |
| 2019-10-02 | 2019-10-04 | $16.21 | $15.43 | -4.96% | 3 | |
| 2019-09-27 | 2019-09-30 | $16.14 | $16.06 | -0.38% | 2 | |
| 2019-09-11 | 2019-09-25 | $16.47 | $15.25 | -5.42% | 11 | |
| 2019-07-01 | 2019-07-26 | $15.14 | $15.20 | 2.20% | 19 | |
| 2019-03-01 | 2019-03-05 | $19.65 | $18.44 | -10.98% | 3 | |
| 2019-01-11 | 2019-01-22 | $23.15 | $19.93 | -12.56% | 7 | |
| 2018-12-11 | 2018-12-18 | $24.45 | $22.47 | -4.77% | 6 |