Strategy Zoo / S1484
PriceMomentum_V1484
ARCHIVEDhybridstructuralchanged cumret_252d threshold -0.1997 -> 0.2536; added exit filter: close < roll_high_50
Fitness
0.5111
Generation
68
Complexity
32
Created
2026-10-13
Lineage
Parents (1)
changed dist_sma_50 threshold -0.2357 -> -0.0777
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# PriceMomentum_V1484 [hybrid]
if flat and ((ret_20d > 0.184 and breakout_20 == 1) or (((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > -0.0024) or ret_20d > 0.085) and cumret_252d > 1.1509 and cumret_252d > 0.2536 and dist_sma_50 > -0.0777) or ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) or ((breakout_50 == 1 and rel_volume > 1.5045) or ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) and sma_50 > sma_200)))) and sma_20 < close)):
position = 1.0
if long and (macd_hist < 0.0 or close < roll_high_50):
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 20.3% | 49.2% | -1.8% | 19.3% |
| Total Return | 336.5% | 232.4% | -6.7% | 1252.4% |
| Sharpe | 0.82 | 1.18 | 0.05 | 0.74 |
| Sortino | 0.89 | 1.21 | 0.05 | 0.74 |
| Calmar | 0.66 | 1.29 | -0.05 | 0.50 |
| Volatility | 26.8% | 40.8% | 25.4% | 29.9% |
| Max DD | -30.6% | -38.0% | -38.6% | -38.6% |
| Win Rate | 47.4% | 52.9% | 39.7% | 47.1% |
| Avg Win | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| Avg Loss | -1.8% | -2.8% | -2.4% | -2.2% |
| Payoff | 1.70 | 1.52 | 1.57 | 1.62 |
| Expectancy | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Profit Factor | 1.53 | 1.70 | 1.03 | 1.44 |
| Trades | 348 | 155 | 146 | 650 |
| Avg Holding Days | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Turnover | 87.3 | 103.3 | 78.0 | 88.3 |
| Exposure | 24.0% | 29.8% | 21.0% | 24.4% |
Growth of $100
PriceMomentum_V1484 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V1484 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 33.0% | 2.35 | -3.6% | 27 |
| 2017 | 7.5% | 0.55 | -8.6% | 47 |
| 2018 | 8.4% | 0.48 | -15.9% | 34 |
| 2019 | 28.7% | 0.95 | -24.2% | 30 |
| 2020 | 226.9% | 2.25 | -38.0% | 78 |
| 2021 | 14.4% | 0.61 | -23.3% | 55 |
| 2022 | -14.5% | -0.67 | -20.9% | 22 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 278 | 3.9% | 0.21 | 13% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | -7.3% | -0.23 | 31% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 87.9% | 2.04 | 31% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | 1.1% | 0.03 | 23% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 443 | 25.3% | 1.26 | 21% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | -40.7% | -1.71 | 18% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 816 | -2.8% | -0.12 | 19% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 298 | -21.1% | -0.93 | 23% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 17.5% | 0.56 | 26% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | -11.3% | -0.73 | 9% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 45.2% | 1.88 | 37% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 293.1% | 4.31 | 63% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 45.3% | 1.21 | 25% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 13.8% | 0.85 | 26% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | 3.8% | 0.18 | 20% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | 0.5% | 0.02 | 19% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | 15.3% | 0.73 | 23% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 45.3% | 1.32 | 33% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 35.4% | 1.69 | 6% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 16.0% | 0.33 | 38% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 249.9% | 3.72 | 52% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 41.1% | 0.73 | 26% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 1.3% | 0.07 | 31% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 81.7% | 2.32 | 32% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | -3.4% | -0.15 | 20% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -10.4% | -0.54 | 20% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 80.7% | 1.57 | 41% |
Trades (full period)
latest 100 of 651
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | — | $382.70 | — | 0.71% | 2 | OPEN |
| 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $377.81 | $375.00 | -0.95% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-28 | 2026-09-29 | $357.45 | $352.84 | -4.14% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-24 | 2026-09-25 | $377.94 | $372.11 | -0.77% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-23 | $378.90 | $380.12 | 0.76% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-21 | $364.27 | $375.30 | -0.73% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-15 | 2026-09-16 | $356.58 | $358.08 | -0.86% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-14 | $365.44 | $358.97 | 0.32% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-09 | 2026-09-10 | $367.81 | $363.56 | -0.29% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-08 | $354.08 | $368.16 | -6.12% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-02 | $356.09 | $357.01 | -3.42% | 2 | |
| 2026-07-07 | 2026-07-08 | $402.90 | $394.06 | -4.21% | 2 | |
| 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-02 | $425.30 | $393.45 | 0.92% | 2 | |
| 2026-06-01 | 2026-06-02 | $415.88 | $423.74 | -4.76% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-29 | $442.10 | $435.79 | 0.19% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-20 | 2026-05-21 | $417.26 | $417.85 | 3.05% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-19 | $409.99 | $404.11 | -3.10% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-14 | 2026-05-15 | $443.30 | $422.24 | -0.64% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-13 | $428.35 | $445.27 | 5.05% | 4 | |
| 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-07 | $398.73 | $411.79 | 2.20% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-05 | $392.51 | $389.37 | 0.23% | 2 | |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-21 | $392.50 | $386.42 | -2.22% | 2 | |
| 2026-04-16 | 2026-04-17 | $388.90 | $400.62 | -0.98% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-12-29 | $475.19 | $459.64 | -2.30% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-12-24 | $485.56 | $485.40 | -0.85% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-19 | 2025-12-22 | $481.20 | $488.73 | -0.65% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-16 | 2025-12-18 | $489.88 | $483.37 | -1.89% | 3 | |
| 2025-12-12 | 2025-12-15 | $458.96 | $475.31 | 2.50% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-11 | $451.45 | $446.89 | 1.21% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-09 | $439.58 | $445.17 | -3.59% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-05 | $454.53 | $455.00 | 1.54% | 2 | |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-05 | $444.26 | $462.07 | -5.34% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-29 | 2025-10-03 | $443.21 | $429.83 | -1.20% | 5 | |
| 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-26 | $423.39 | $440.40 | -4.58% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-24 | $434.21 | $442.79 | -0.25% | 3 | |
| 2025-09-12 | 2025-09-19 | $395.94 | $426.07 | 12.81% | 6 | |
| 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-11 | $347.79 | $368.81 | 0.04% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-08 | 2025-09-09 | $346.40 | $346.97 | -1.46% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-29 | 2025-09-02 | $333.87 | $329.36 | -3.70% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-27 | 2025-08-28 | $349.60 | $345.98 | -0.79% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-26 | $346.60 | $351.67 | 1.74% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-21 | $323.90 | $320.11 | -1.84% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-18 | 2025-08-19 | $335.16 | $329.31 | 1.19% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-14 | 2025-08-15 | $335.58 | $330.56 | -1.32% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-12 | 2025-08-13 | $340.84 | $339.38 | 0.33% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-11 | $329.65 | $339.03 | 2.09% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-30 | $321.20 | $319.04 | -1.55% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-24 | $332.56 | $305.30 | -0.06% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-22 | $328.49 | $332.11 | -0.55% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-26 | $327.55 | $325.78 | -3.99% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-30 | 2025-06-02 | $346.46 | $342.69 | -3.54% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-28 | 2025-05-29 | $356.90 | $358.43 | -1.85% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-23 | 2025-05-27 | $339.34 | $362.89 | -0.70% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-22 | $334.62 | $341.04 | -2.87% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-20 | $342.09 | $343.82 | -2.45% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-05-16 | $318.38 | $349.98 | 14.72% | 5 | |
| 2025-05-08 | 2025-05-09 | $284.82 | $298.26 | 2.91% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-06 | 2025-05-07 | $275.35 | $276.22 | -1.95% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-05-05 | $287.21 | $280.26 | 2.18% | 2 | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-01 | $282.16 | $280.52 | -3.58% | 2 | |
| 2025-04-28 | 2025-04-29 | $285.88 | $292.03 | 0.13% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-20 | 2024-12-23 | $421.06 | $430.60 | -3.66% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-16 | 2024-12-19 | $463.02 | $436.17 | 0.70% | 4 | |
| 2024-12-09 | 2024-12-13 | $389.79 | $436.23 | 7.21% | 5 | |
| 2024-12-05 | 2024-12-06 | $369.49 | $389.22 | 3.03% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-03 | 2024-12-04 | $351.42 | $357.93 | -1.79% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-27 | 2024-11-29 | $332.89 | $345.16 | -1.78% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-22 | 2024-11-26 | $352.56 | $338.23 | -0.50% | 3 | |
| 2024-11-20 | 2024-11-21 | $342.03 | $339.64 | -1.35% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-18 | 2024-11-19 | $338.74 | $346.00 | 5.41% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-14 | 2024-11-15 | $311.18 | $320.72 | -5.97% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-07 | 2024-11-13 | $296.91 | $330.24 | 13.63% | 5 | |
| 2024-11-05 | 2024-11-06 | $251.44 | $288.53 | 3.34% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-01 | 2024-11-04 | $248.98 | $242.84 | -0.55% | 2 | |
| 2024-10-30 | 2024-10-31 | $257.55 | $249.85 | -0.96% | 2 | |
| 2024-10-25 | 2024-10-29 | $269.19 | $259.52 | 0.58% | 3 | |
| 2024-10-03 | 2024-10-04 | $240.66 | $250.08 | -3.55% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-10-02 | $261.63 | $249.02 | -1.13% | 3 | |
| 2024-09-25 | 2024-09-27 | $257.02 | $260.46 | -0.22% | 3 | |
| 2024-09-23 | 2024-09-24 | $250.00 | $254.27 | 4.73% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-20 | $243.92 | $238.25 | 7.15% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-17 | 2024-09-18 | $227.87 | $227.20 | 0.28% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-13 | 2024-09-16 | $230.29 | $226.78 | 0.01% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-12 | $228.13 | $229.81 | 0.67% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-09 | $210.73 | $216.27 | -8.64% | 2 | |
| 2024-08-26 | 2024-08-27 | $213.21 | $209.21 | -3.42% | 2 | |
| 2024-08-22 | 2024-08-23 | $210.66 | $220.32 | -5.84% | 2 | |
| 2024-08-20 | 2024-08-21 | $221.10 | $223.27 | -0.93% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-19 | 2024-07-22 | $239.20 | $251.51 | -4.22% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-17 | 2024-07-18 | $248.50 | $249.23 | -3.34% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-15 | 2024-07-16 | $252.64 | $256.56 | 1.57% | 2 | |
| 2024-06-26 | 2024-07-12 | $196.37 | $248.23 | 28.40% | 12 | |
| 2024-06-24 | 2024-06-25 | $182.58 | $187.35 | -0.43% | 2 | |
| 2024-06-20 | 2024-06-21 | $181.57 | $183.01 | -1.98% | 2 | |
| 2024-06-17 | 2024-06-18 | $187.44 | $184.86 | 5.09% | 2 | |
| 2024-05-28 | 2024-05-29 | $176.75 | $176.19 | -1.59% | 2 | |
| 2024-05-22 | 2024-05-23 | $180.11 | $173.74 | -3.67% | 2 | |
| 2024-05-20 | 2024-05-21 | $174.95 | $186.60 | -1.61% | 2 | |
| 2024-05-16 | 2024-05-17 | $174.84 | $177.46 | 0.29% | 2 | |
| 2024-05-14 | 2024-05-15 | $177.55 | $173.99 | 3.09% | 2 |