Strategy Zoo / S1427
LongTermTrend_V1427
ARCHIVEDhybridcrossoverentry from LongTermTrend_V1407, exit from PriceMomentum_V1350
Fitness
0.6739
Generation
66
Complexity
13
Created
2026-10-10
Lineage
Parents (2)
changed ret_20d threshold -0.1499 -> -0.1076
entry from LongTermTrend_V1383, exit from PriceMomentum_V0690
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# LongTermTrend_V1427 [hybrid]
if flat and (((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.05) or ret_20d > 0.2657):
position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.1076:
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 31.9% | 119.2% | 16.9% | 42.2% |
| Total Return | 814.8% | 953.4% | 80.0% | 17754.8% |
| Sharpe | 0.93 | 1.71 | 0.60 | 1.05 |
| Sortino | 1.14 | 2.08 | 0.67 | 1.24 |
| Calmar | 0.63 | 2.82 | 0.37 | 0.83 |
| Volatility | 36.8% | 54.7% | 38.5% | 41.5% |
| Max DD | -50.9% | -42.2% | -46.0% | -50.9% |
| Win Rate | 42.1% | 44.4% | 50.0% | 45.0% |
| Avg Win | 72.5% | 108.4% | 19.9% | 70.2% |
| Avg Loss | -11.4% | -7.6% | -7.9% | -9.6% |
| Payoff | 6.37 | 10.00 | 2.51 | 7.33 |
| Expectancy | 23.9% | 43.9% | 6.0% | 26.3% |
| Profit Factor | 4.64 | 10.00 | 2.51 | 5.99 |
| Trades | 19 | 9 | 12 | 40 |
| Avg Holding Days | 61.2 | 57.0 | 40.5 | 56.0 |
| Turnover | 4.9 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 5.5 |
| Exposure | 60.6% | 66.7% | 53.7% | 60.1% |
Growth of $100
LongTermTrend_V1427 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
LongTermTrend_V1427 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -19.9% | -0.85 | -37.2% | 4 |
| 2017 | 15.7% | 0.61 | -34.5% | 2 |
| 2018 | -9.0% | -0.05 | -33.7% | 3 |
| 2019 | 64.0% | 1.64 | -24.9% | 1 |
| 2020 | 842.7% | 3.35 | -33.7% | 2 |
| 2021 | 51.1% | 1.20 | -26.1% | 3 |
| 2022 | -29.3% | -0.78 | -29.9% | 4 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 278 | 13.5% | 0.50 | 31% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 87.2% | 1.84 | 75% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 226.9% | 3.79 | 77% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | 34.1% | 0.69 | 53% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 442 | 52.5% | 1.74 | 55% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | -40.1% | -1.03 | 52% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 815 | 4.6% | 0.13 | 50% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 297 | -6.4% | -0.18 | 58% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 53.9% | 1.14 | 68% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | 4.2% | 0.23 | 21% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 87.1% | 2.02 | 82% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 416.1% | 5.63 | 100% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 67.4% | 1.43 | 52% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 34.7% | 1.30 | 68% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -6.6% | -0.20 | 61% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | 0.3% | 0.01 | 54% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -11.3% | -0.34 | 55% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 81.7% | 1.79 | 87% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 37.6% | 1.70 | 12% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 96.2% | 1.59 | 83% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 378.9% | 4.47 | 95% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 125.0% | 1.80 | 55% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 56.0% | 1.69 | 87% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 89.4% | 1.75 | 64% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 5.9% | 0.16 | 53% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -15.9% | -0.38 | 62% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 162.9% | 2.49 | 85% |
Trades (full period)
41 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | — | $348.95 | — | 5.36% | 34 | OPEN |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-06-10 | $392.50 | $381.59 | -1.18% | 37 | |
| 2025-12-15 | 2026-01-21 | $475.31 | $431.44 | -8.83% | 25 | |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-11-21 | $339.03 | $391.09 | 19.66% | 74 | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-07-02 | $282.16 | $315.65 | 2.76% | 44 | |
| 2025-04-16 | 2025-04-23 | $241.55 | $250.74 | -6.54% | 5 | |
| 2024-11-07 | 2025-01-21 | $296.91 | $424.07 | 47.53% | 49 | |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024-10-22 | $210.73 | $217.97 | -5.12% | 33 | |
| 2024-04-30 | 2024-08-02 | $183.28 | $207.67 | 11.52% | 66 | |
| 2023-11-17 | 2024-01-17 | $234.30 | $215.55 | -6.04% | 40 | |
| 2023-09-12 | 2023-10-20 | $267.48 | $211.99 | -19.71% | 29 | |
| 2023-05-24 | 2023-08-10 | $182.90 | $245.34 | 30.11% | 54 | |
| 2023-01-27 | 2023-03-10 | $177.90 | $173.44 | 7.69% | 30 | |
| 2022-07-19 | 2022-10-06 | $245.53 | $238.13 | -0.09% | 57 | |
| 2022-06-24 | 2022-07-05 | $245.71 | $233.07 | -3.51% | 7 | |
| 2022-03-22 | 2022-04-27 | $331.33 | $293.84 | -5.04% | 26 | |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-01-25 | $383.20 | $306.13 | -22.64% | 15 | |
| 2021-06-14 | 2021-12-06 | $205.90 | $336.34 | 66.09% | 123 | |
| 2021-04-05 | 2021-05-12 | $230.35 | $196.63 | -6.91% | 28 | |
| 2020-10-07 | 2021-02-23 | $141.77 | $232.95 | 72.25% | 95 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-09-30 | $47.33 | $143.00 | 221.27% | 119 | |
| 2019-09-13 | 2020-03-05 | $16.35 | $48.30 | 204.23% | 120 | |
| 2019-07-02 | 2019-08-15 | $14.97 | $14.38 | -3.52% | 32 | |
| 2018-10-29 | 2019-01-03 | $22.32 | $20.02 | -6.47% | 45 | |
| 2018-08-03 | 2018-08-31 | $23.21 | $20.11 | -13.45% | 21 | |
| 2018-04-27 | 2018-07-16 | $19.61 | $20.67 | 11.48% | 55 | |
| 2017-12-12 | 2018-03-26 | $22.74 | $20.28 | -8.50% | 71 | |
| 2017-08-04 | 2017-11-03 | $23.79 | $20.41 | -13.95% | 65 | |
| 2016-12-21 | 2017-07-07 | $13.85 | $20.88 | 47.62% | 136 | |
| 2016-07-22 | 2016-09-02 | $14.82 | $13.19 | -9.13% | 31 | |
| 2016-06-08 | 2016-06-27 | $15.70 | $13.24 | -17.03% | 14 | |
| 2016-03-04 | 2016-05-05 | $13.40 | $14.10 | 13.48% | 44 | |
| 2015-12-01 | 2016-01-19 | $15.81 | $13.65 | -11.15% | 33 | |
| 2015-09-22 | 2015-10-12 | $17.40 | $14.37 | -16.64% | 15 | |
| 2015-04-13 | 2015-08-17 | $13.99 | $17.00 | 15.06% | 89 | |
| 2014-11-11 | 2014-12-11 | $16.74 | $13.93 | -13.43% | 22 | |
| 2014-05-28 | 2014-10-01 | $14.02 | $16.02 | 14.48% | 89 | |
| 2013-12-13 | 2014-03-26 | $9.84 | $14.20 | 49.18% | 70 | |
| 2012-11-06 | 2013-10-24 | $2.08 | $11.54 | 421.17% | 244 | |
| 2012-06-19 | 2012-07-27 | $2.14 | $1.97 | -11.83% | 28 | |
| 2012-02-02 | 2012-04-25 | $2.02 | $2.19 | 7.36% | 58 |