Strategy Zoo / S1151
PriceMomentum_V1151
ARCHIVEDhybridstructuralchanged ret_20d threshold 0.05 -> -0.0117; restricted to trend regimes ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
Fitness
0.6497
Generation
52
Complexity
21
Created
2026-10-03
Lineage
Parents (1)
changed ret_20d threshold 0.05 -> 0.1225
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# PriceMomentum_V1151 [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
if flat and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.0923) and ret_20d > -0.0117 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) or ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.1225 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.05)):
position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.006:
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 20.5% | 95.9% | 0.6% | 27.4% |
| Total Return | 342.8% | 651.8% | 2.4% | 3411.3% |
| Sharpe | 0.76 | 1.63 | 0.18 | 0.86 |
| Sortino | 0.69 | 1.63 | 0.15 | 0.78 |
| Calmar | 0.34 | 2.39 | 0.01 | 0.46 |
| Volatility | 30.3% | 48.4% | 32.7% | 35.4% |
| Max DD | -59.7% | -40.1% | -51.0% | -59.7% |
| Win Rate | 38.2% | 31.8% | 35.3% | 36.0% |
| Avg Win | 17.7% | 51.7% | 12.5% | 24.0% |
| Avg Loss | -4.4% | -5.1% | -5.6% | -4.9% |
| Payoff | 4.03 | 10.00 | 2.22 | 4.88 |
| Expectancy | 4.1% | 13.0% | 0.8% | 5.5% |
| Profit Factor | 2.49 | 4.76 | 1.21 | 2.75 |
| Trades | 55 | 22 | 34 | 111 |
| Avg Holding Days | 13.0 | 16.5 | 9.4 | 13.1 |
| Turnover | 13.9 | 14.7 | 18.2 | 15.1 |
| Exposure | 35.2% | 45.2% | 30.5% | 36.1% |
Growth of $100
PriceMomentum_V1151 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V1151 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25.0% | 1.70 | -11.1% | 7 |
| 2017 | 25.8% | 0.98 | -20.1% | 10 |
| 2018 | -40.3% | -1.96 | -40.2% | 9 |
| 2019 | 24.3% | 1.08 | -15.8% | 3 |
| 2020 | 481.4% | 2.81 | -34.1% | 9 |
| 2021 | 60.5% | 1.56 | -17.6% | 6 |
| 2022 | -22.8% | -0.95 | -30.7% | 7 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 277 | -25.0% | -1.17 | 21% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 101.0% | 1.93 | 67% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 167.9% | 2.89 | 71% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | -29.6% | -0.66 | 37% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 436 | 36.1% | 1.66 | 24% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 251 | -10.1% | -0.30 | 35% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 810 | -13.3% | -0.48 | 24% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | -22.4% | -1.26 | 4% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 51.6% | 1.12 | 58% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | 9.1% | 0.90 | 9% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 45.0% | 1.10 | 68% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 407.4% | 5.51 | 99% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 39.5% | 0.97 | 32% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 30.0% | 1.43 | 42% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -5.9% | -0.23 | 30% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -5.1% | -0.24 | 25% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -9.0% | -0.74 | 3% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 52.3% | 1.20 | 71% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 45.2% | 2.08 | 12% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 33.7% | 0.60 | 66% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 351.9% | 4.34 | 86% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 90.6% | 1.36 | 47% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 30.5% | 1.39 | 42% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 97.6% | 2.37 | 46% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 9.2% | 0.34 | 27% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -9.2% | -0.94 | 3% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 131.6% | 2.09 | 76% |
Trades (full period)
latest 100 of 111
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-30 | $348.95 | $354.81 | -2.96% | 27 | |
| 2026-07-07 | 2026-07-08 | $402.90 | $394.06 | -4.21% | 2 | |
| 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-06 | $425.30 | $419.77 | -6.64% | 3 | |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-01 | $435.79 | $415.88 | -1.63% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-05 | 2026-05-08 | $389.37 | $428.35 | 4.70% | 4 | |
| 2026-01-06 | 2026-01-07 | $432.96 | $431.41 | -4.34% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-08 | 2026-01-05 | $439.58 | $451.67 | -3.92% | 19 | |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-05 | $454.53 | $455.00 | 1.54% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-13 | $460.55 | $401.99 | -5.01% | 13 | |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-10-27 | $433.72 | $452.42 | -3.60% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-12 | 2025-10-23 | $395.94 | $448.98 | 18.79% | 30 | |
| 2025-09-04 | 2025-09-05 | $338.53 | $350.84 | 1.13% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-29 | 2025-08-01 | $321.20 | $302.63 | -5.51% | 4 | |
| 2025-07-18 | 2025-07-23 | $329.65 | $332.56 | 3.77% | 4 | |
| 2025-07-15 | 2025-07-16 | $310.78 | $321.67 | -2.13% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-24 | 2025-06-26 | $340.47 | $325.78 | -6.25% | 3 | |
| 2025-06-10 | 2025-06-12 | $326.09 | $319.11 | 5.58% | 3 | |
| 2025-05-22 | 2025-06-06 | $341.04 | $295.14 | -15.09% | 11 | |
| 2025-05-06 | 2025-05-12 | $275.35 | $318.38 | 6.21% | 5 | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-02 | $282.16 | $287.21 | -4.14% | 3 | |
| 2025-04-10 | 2025-04-22 | $252.40 | $237.97 | -16.60% | 8 | |
| 2025-02-03 | 2025-02-05 | $383.68 | $378.17 | -3.26% | 3 | |
| 2024-11-06 | 2025-01-13 | $288.53 | $403.31 | 56.70% | 45 | |
| 2024-10-03 | 2024-10-14 | $240.66 | $219.16 | -12.71% | 8 | |
| 2024-09-05 | 2024-09-27 | $230.17 | $260.46 | 15.64% | 17 | |
| 2024-07-02 | 2024-08-02 | $231.26 | $207.67 | 3.14% | 23 | |
| 2024-05-15 | 2024-05-29 | $173.99 | $176.19 | -0.65% | 10 | |
| 2024-04-30 | 2024-05-10 | $183.28 | $168.47 | -11.56% | 9 | |
| 2024-01-09 | 2024-01-10 | $234.96 | $233.94 | -2.48% | 2 | |
| 2024-01-03 | 2024-01-08 | $238.45 | $240.45 | -4.59% | 4 | |
| 2023-08-31 | 2023-09-05 | $258.08 | $256.49 | -4.82% | 3 | |
| 2023-07-26 | 2023-08-02 | $264.35 | $254.11 | -1.78% | 6 | |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-07-24 | $213.97 | $269.06 | 25.05% | 35 | |
| 2023-05-24 | 2023-05-31 | $182.90 | $203.93 | 8.07% | 5 | |
| 2022-08-16 | 2022-08-22 | $306.56 | $289.91 | -4.28% | 5 | |
| 2022-08-05 | 2022-08-08 | $288.17 | $290.42 | -6.82% | 2 | |
| 2022-07-14 | 2022-08-02 | $238.31 | $300.59 | 25.16% | 14 | |
| 2022-06-24 | 2022-06-29 | $245.71 | $228.49 | -1.22% | 4 | |
| 2022-04-22 | 2022-04-25 | $335.02 | $332.67 | -0.57% | 2 | |
| 2022-04-05 | 2022-04-21 | $363.75 | $336.26 | -14.86% | 12 | |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-01-20 | $383.20 | $332.09 | -17.18% | 12 | |
| 2021-12-28 | 2021-12-29 | $362.82 | $362.06 | -0.70% | 2 | |
| 2021-12-09 | 2021-12-10 | $334.60 | $339.01 | -6.29% | 2 | |
| 2021-08-24 | 2021-12-01 | $236.16 | $365.00 | 61.75% | 70 | |
| 2021-08-05 | 2021-08-23 | $238.21 | $235.43 | -4.50% | 13 | |
| 2021-02-10 | 2021-02-11 | $268.27 | $270.55 | -5.45% | 2 | |
| 2020-11-19 | 2021-02-09 | $166.42 | $283.15 | 77.07% | 55 | |
| 2020-11-06 | 2020-11-09 | $143.32 | $140.42 | -2.06% | 2 | |
| 2020-11-04 | 2020-11-05 | $140.33 | $146.03 | -0.89% | 2 | |
| 2020-10-21 | 2020-10-29 | $140.88 | $136.94 | -3.97% | 7 | |
| 2020-10-15 | 2020-10-20 | $149.63 | $140.65 | -6.79% | 4 | |
| 2020-10-02 | 2020-10-14 | $138.36 | $153.77 | -0.54% | 9 | |
| 2020-08-13 | 2020-09-24 | $108.07 | $129.26 | 22.08% | 30 | |
| 2020-05-15 | 2020-08-10 | $53.28 | $94.57 | 80.47% | 60 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-04-30 | $47.33 | $52.13 | 22.74% | 13 | |
| 2019-10-25 | 2020-03-04 | $21.88 | $49.97 | 148.29% | 89 | |
| 2019-09-27 | 2019-10-10 | $16.14 | $16.32 | 0.61% | 10 | |
| 2019-07-16 | 2019-07-22 | $16.83 | $17.05 | 1.64% | 5 | |
| 2019-01-17 | 2019-01-22 | $23.15 | $19.93 | -12.83% | 3 | |
| 2018-11-27 | 2018-12-19 | $22.93 | $22.20 | -2.79% | 16 | |
| 2018-11-19 | 2018-11-20 | $23.56 | $23.17 | -0.44% | 2 | |
| 2018-08-27 | 2018-08-28 | $21.28 | $20.79 | -1.30% | 2 | |
| 2018-08-03 | 2018-08-20 | $23.21 | $20.56 | -12.77% | 12 | |
| 2018-06-15 | 2018-07-05 | $23.88 | $20.61 | -13.27% | 14 | |
| 2018-04-27 | 2018-05-04 | $19.61 | $19.61 | -0.56% | 6 | |
| 2018-02-26 | 2018-03-01 | $23.83 | $22.06 | -2.75% | 4 | |
| 2018-02-08 | 2018-02-09 | $21.02 | $20.69 | -8.82% | 2 | |
| 2018-02-01 | 2018-02-06 | $23.28 | $22.26 | -6.17% | 4 | |
| 2017-10-04 | 2017-10-10 | $23.67 | $23.71 | -1.69% | 5 | |
| 2017-09-27 | 2017-09-28 | $22.73 | $22.64 | -1.44% | 2 | |
| 2017-09-18 | 2017-09-26 | $25.67 | $23.02 | -9.35% | 7 | |
| 2017-08-23 | 2017-08-24 | $23.52 | $23.53 | 3.14% | 2 | |
| 2017-08-03 | 2017-08-22 | $23.14 | $22.76 | 3.47% | 14 | |
| 2017-05-25 | 2017-07-06 | $21.12 | $20.59 | 5.23% | 29 | |
| 2017-03-24 | 2017-05-24 | $17.54 | $20.68 | 19.03% | 43 | |
| 2017-03-03 | 2017-03-08 | $16.77 | $16.46 | -0.95% | 4 | |
| 2017-03-01 | 2017-03-02 | $16.67 | $16.70 | -0.19% | 2 | |
| 2017-01-05 | 2017-02-28 | $15.12 | $16.67 | 8.26% | 37 | |
| 2016-12-20 | 2016-12-28 | $13.92 | $14.65 | 8.07% | 6 | |
| 2016-08-19 | 2016-08-23 | $15.00 | $14.99 | -0.46% | 3 | |
| 2016-07-26 | 2016-08-17 | $15.30 | $14.88 | -2.98% | 17 | |
| 2016-06-08 | 2016-06-09 | $15.70 | $15.29 | 1.17% | 2 | |
| 2016-04-05 | 2016-05-03 | $17.03 | $15.49 | -2.29% | 21 | |
| 2016-03-24 | 2016-03-28 | $15.18 | $15.35 | 2.12% | 2 | |
| 2016-03-04 | 2016-03-21 | $13.40 | $15.89 | 18.67% | 12 | |
| 2015-12-03 | 2015-12-29 | $15.51 | $15.81 | -1.51% | 18 | |
| 2015-11-30 | 2015-12-02 | $15.35 | $15.47 | 2.20% | 3 | |
| 2015-08-05 | 2015-08-07 | $18.01 | $16.17 | -7.75% | 3 | |
| 2015-07-31 | 2015-08-03 | $17.74 | $17.33 | -0.44% | 2 | |
| 2015-07-29 | 2015-07-30 | $17.59 | $17.79 | -0.58% | 2 | |
| 2015-05-11 | 2015-07-27 | $15.97 | $16.87 | 11.95% | 54 | |
| 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-01 | $15.50 | $15.07 | -2.12% | 3 | |
| 2015-04-24 | 2015-04-28 | $14.56 | $15.37 | 5.71% | 3 | |
| 2015-04-13 | 2015-04-14 | $13.99 | $13.83 | -0.73% | 2 | |
| 2014-09-17 | 2014-09-23 | $17.43 | $16.69 | -4.30% | 5 | |
| 2014-08-04 | 2014-09-16 | $15.90 | $17.38 | 8.61% | 31 | |
| 2014-06-23 | 2014-07-16 | $15.81 | $14.48 | -4.55% | 17 | |
| 2014-05-06 | 2014-05-08 | $13.82 | $11.91 | -7.23% | 3 | |
| 2014-04-30 | 2014-05-01 | $13.86 | $13.85 | 0.27% | 2 | |
| 2014-04-23 | 2014-04-24 | $13.87 | $13.86 | -5.07% | 2 |