Strategy Zoo / S1151

PriceMomentum_V1151

ARCHIVEDhybrid

structuralchanged ret_20d threshold 0.05 -> -0.0117; restricted to trend regimes ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']

Fitness
0.6497
Generation
52
Complexity
21
Created
2026-10-03

Lineage

Parents (1)
PriceMomentum_V1129S1129 · gen 51ARCHIVEDstructural

changed ret_20d threshold 0.05 -> 0.1225

Children (0)
None

Strategy Logic (pseudocode)

# PriceMomentum_V1151  [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
if flat and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.0923) and ret_20d > -0.0117 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) or ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.1225 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.05)):
    position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.006:
    position = 0.0  # exit to cash

Backtest Metrics

MetricTrainValidationHidden TestFull
CAGR20.5%95.9%0.6%27.4%
Total Return342.8%651.8%2.4%3411.3%
Sharpe0.761.630.180.86
Sortino0.691.630.150.78
Calmar0.342.390.010.46
Volatility30.3%48.4%32.7%35.4%
Max DD-59.7%-40.1%-51.0%-59.7%
Win Rate38.2%31.8%35.3%36.0%
Avg Win17.7%51.7%12.5%24.0%
Avg Loss-4.4%-5.1%-5.6%-4.9%
Payoff4.0310.002.224.88
Expectancy4.1%13.0%0.8%5.5%
Profit Factor2.494.761.212.75
Trades552234111
Avg Holding Days13.016.59.413.1
Turnover13.914.718.215.1
Exposure35.2%45.2%30.5%36.1%

Growth of $100

PriceMomentum_V1151 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V1151 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.

Walk-Forward Years

year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
YearCAGRSharpeMax DDTrades
201625.0%1.70-11.1%7
201725.8%0.98-20.1%10
2018-40.3%-1.96-40.2%9
201924.3%1.08-15.8%3
2020481.4%2.81-34.1%9
202160.5%1.56-17.6%6
2022-22.8%-0.95-30.7%7

A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.

Regime Performance

PeriodRegimeDaysAnn. ReturnSharpeExposure
hidden testDOWNTREND277-25.0%-1.1721%
hidden testEXPENSIVE83101.0%1.9367%
hidden testEXTREME48167.9%2.8971%
hidden testHIGH VOLATILITY254-29.6%-0.6637%
hidden testLOW VOLATILITY43636.1%1.6624%
hidden testMEDIUM VOLATILITY251-10.1%-0.3035%
hidden testNORMAL810-13.3%-0.4824%
hidden testSIDEWAYS293-22.4%-1.264%
hidden testUPTREND37151.6%1.1258%
trainDOWNTREND5189.1%0.909%
trainEXPENSIVE31145.0%1.1068%
trainEXTREME100407.4%5.5199%
trainHIGH VOLATILITY69939.5%0.9732%
trainLOW VOLATILITY74530.0%1.4342%
trainMEDIUM VOLATILITY568-5.9%-0.2330%
trainNORMAL1,601-5.1%-0.2425%
trainSIDEWAYS592-9.0%-0.743%
trainUPTREND90252.3%1.2071%
validationDOWNTREND12545.2%2.0812%
validationEXPENSIVE13833.7%0.6066%
validationEXTREME144351.9%4.3486%
validationHIGH VOLATILITY25890.6%1.3647%
validationLOW VOLATILITY18330.5%1.3942%
validationMEDIUM VOLATILITY31597.6%2.3746%
validationNORMAL4749.2%0.3427%
validationSIDEWAYS206-9.2%-0.943%
validationUPTREND425131.6%2.0976%

Trades (full period)

latest 100 of 111
EntryExitEntry PxExit PxReturnDays
2026-08-242026-09-30$348.95$354.81-2.96%27
2026-07-072026-07-08$402.90$394.06-4.21%2
2026-07-012026-07-06$425.30$419.77-6.64%3
2026-05-292026-06-01$435.79$415.88-1.63%2
2026-05-052026-05-08$389.37$428.354.70%4
2026-01-062026-01-07$432.96$431.41-4.34%2
2025-12-082026-01-05$439.58$451.67-3.92%19
2025-12-042025-12-05$454.53$455.001.54%2
2025-10-282025-11-13$460.55$401.99-5.01%13
2025-10-242025-10-27$433.72$452.42-3.60%2
2025-09-122025-10-23$395.94$448.9818.79%30
2025-09-042025-09-05$338.53$350.841.13%2
2025-07-292025-08-01$321.20$302.63-5.51%4
2025-07-182025-07-23$329.65$332.563.77%4
2025-07-152025-07-16$310.78$321.67-2.13%2
2025-06-242025-06-26$340.47$325.78-6.25%3
2025-06-102025-06-12$326.09$319.115.58%3
2025-05-222025-06-06$341.04$295.14-15.09%11
2025-05-062025-05-12$275.35$318.386.21%5
2025-04-302025-05-02$282.16$287.21-4.14%3
2025-04-102025-04-22$252.40$237.97-16.60%8
2025-02-032025-02-05$383.68$378.17-3.26%3
2024-11-062025-01-13$288.53$403.3156.70%45
2024-10-032024-10-14$240.66$219.16-12.71%8
2024-09-052024-09-27$230.17$260.4615.64%17
2024-07-022024-08-02$231.26$207.673.14%23
2024-05-152024-05-29$173.99$176.19-0.65%10
2024-04-302024-05-10$183.28$168.47-11.56%9
2024-01-092024-01-10$234.96$233.94-2.48%2
2024-01-032024-01-08$238.45$240.45-4.59%4
2023-08-312023-09-05$258.08$256.49-4.82%3
2023-07-262023-08-02$264.35$254.11-1.78%6
2023-06-022023-07-24$213.97$269.0625.05%35
2023-05-242023-05-31$182.90$203.938.07%5
2022-08-162022-08-22$306.56$289.91-4.28%5
2022-08-052022-08-08$288.17$290.42-6.82%2
2022-07-142022-08-02$238.31$300.5925.16%14
2022-06-242022-06-29$245.71$228.49-1.22%4
2022-04-222022-04-25$335.02$332.67-0.57%2
2022-04-052022-04-21$363.75$336.26-14.86%12
2022-01-042022-01-20$383.20$332.09-17.18%12
2021-12-282021-12-29$362.82$362.06-0.70%2
2021-12-092021-12-10$334.60$339.01-6.29%2
2021-08-242021-12-01$236.16$365.0061.75%70
2021-08-052021-08-23$238.21$235.43-4.50%13
2021-02-102021-02-11$268.27$270.55-5.45%2
2020-11-192021-02-09$166.42$283.1577.07%55
2020-11-062020-11-09$143.32$140.42-2.06%2
2020-11-042020-11-05$140.33$146.03-0.89%2
2020-10-212020-10-29$140.88$136.94-3.97%7
2020-10-152020-10-20$149.63$140.65-6.79%4
2020-10-022020-10-14$138.36$153.77-0.54%9
2020-08-132020-09-24$108.07$129.2622.08%30
2020-05-152020-08-10$53.28$94.5780.47%60
2020-04-142020-04-30$47.33$52.1322.74%13
2019-10-252020-03-04$21.88$49.97148.29%89
2019-09-272019-10-10$16.14$16.320.61%10
2019-07-162019-07-22$16.83$17.051.64%5
2019-01-172019-01-22$23.15$19.93-12.83%3
2018-11-272018-12-19$22.93$22.20-2.79%16
2018-11-192018-11-20$23.56$23.17-0.44%2
2018-08-272018-08-28$21.28$20.79-1.30%2
2018-08-032018-08-20$23.21$20.56-12.77%12
2018-06-152018-07-05$23.88$20.61-13.27%14
2018-04-272018-05-04$19.61$19.61-0.56%6
2018-02-262018-03-01$23.83$22.06-2.75%4
2018-02-082018-02-09$21.02$20.69-8.82%2
2018-02-012018-02-06$23.28$22.26-6.17%4
2017-10-042017-10-10$23.67$23.71-1.69%5
2017-09-272017-09-28$22.73$22.64-1.44%2
2017-09-182017-09-26$25.67$23.02-9.35%7
2017-08-232017-08-24$23.52$23.533.14%2
2017-08-032017-08-22$23.14$22.763.47%14
2017-05-252017-07-06$21.12$20.595.23%29
2017-03-242017-05-24$17.54$20.6819.03%43
2017-03-032017-03-08$16.77$16.46-0.95%4
2017-03-012017-03-02$16.67$16.70-0.19%2
2017-01-052017-02-28$15.12$16.678.26%37
2016-12-202016-12-28$13.92$14.658.07%6
2016-08-192016-08-23$15.00$14.99-0.46%3
2016-07-262016-08-17$15.30$14.88-2.98%17
2016-06-082016-06-09$15.70$15.291.17%2
2016-04-052016-05-03$17.03$15.49-2.29%21
2016-03-242016-03-28$15.18$15.352.12%2
2016-03-042016-03-21$13.40$15.8918.67%12
2015-12-032015-12-29$15.51$15.81-1.51%18
2015-11-302015-12-02$15.35$15.472.20%3
2015-08-052015-08-07$18.01$16.17-7.75%3
2015-07-312015-08-03$17.74$17.33-0.44%2
2015-07-292015-07-30$17.59$17.79-0.58%2
2015-05-112015-07-27$15.97$16.8711.95%54
2015-04-292015-05-01$15.50$15.07-2.12%3
2015-04-242015-04-28$14.56$15.375.71%3
2015-04-132015-04-14$13.99$13.83-0.73%2
2014-09-172014-09-23$17.43$16.69-4.30%5
2014-08-042014-09-16$15.90$17.388.61%31
2014-06-232014-07-16$15.81$14.48-4.55%17
2014-05-062014-05-08$13.82$11.91-7.23%3
2014-04-302014-05-01$13.86$13.850.27%2
2014-04-232014-04-24$13.87$13.86-5.07%2