Strategy Zoo / S1029
LongTermTrend_V1029
ARCHIVEDhybridllmAdded regime gates (require non-bubble, not-high-vol, prefer up/sideways trend); tightened trend filter by requiring sma_50>sma_200 or positive sma_200_slope; improved exit to include drawdown stop (12%) and SMA50 breach in addition to macd_hist; introduced volatility-based position sizing (scale up in low vol, reduce in high vol); lowered base_position to 0.6 to make sizing rules meaningful.
Fitness
0.1341
Generation
47
Complexity
36
Created
2026-10-02
Lineage
Parents (1)
added entry filter: sma_20 < close; added entry filter: macd_hist > -2.6055
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# LongTermTrend_V1029 [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['UPTREND', 'SIDEWAYS']
require regime.volatility in ['LOW_VOLATILITY', 'MEDIUM_VOLATILITY']
require regime.bubble in ['NORMAL']
if flat and (((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > -0.0024) or ret_20d > 0.085) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997 and dist_sma_50 > -0.0774) or ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) or ((breakout_50 == 1 and rel_volume > 1.5045) or ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) and sma_50 > sma_200)))) and sma_20 < close and macd_hist > -2.6055 and (sma_50 > sma_200 or sma_200_slope > 0.0)):
position = 0.6
if long and (macd_hist < 0.0 or drawdown > 0.12 or close < sma_50):
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | -1.2% | 3.2% | -6.6% | -1.7% |
| Total Return | -8.9% | 10.0% | -22.4% | -22.3% |
| Sharpe | -0.08 | 0.34 | -0.59 | -0.12 |
| Sortino | -0.04 | 0.20 | -0.34 | -0.07 |
| Calmar | -0.04 | 0.26 | -0.25 | -0.04 |
| Volatility | 9.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% |
| Max DD | -26.5% | -12.2% | -26.1% | -38.0% |
| Win Rate | 40.0% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% |
| Avg Win | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% |
| Avg Loss | -1.8% | -1.8% | -2.3% | -2.0% |
| Payoff | 1.36 | 1.63 | 0.87 | 1.22 |
| Expectancy | -0.1% | 0.6% | -0.6% | -0.1% |
| Profit Factor | 0.91 | 1.63 | 0.58 | 0.87 |
| Trades | 65 | 20 | 40 | 125 |
| Avg Holding Days | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 5.1 |
| Turnover | 9.8 | 8.0 | 12.9 | 10.2 |
| Exposure | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
Growth of $100
LongTermTrend_V1029 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
LongTermTrend_V1029 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -1.1% | -0.26 | -3.9% | 2 |
| 2017 | 7.3% | 1.09 | -3.4% | 7 |
| 2018 | -5.5% | -0.91 | -8.7% | 5 |
| 2019 | -5.0% | -0.68 | -8.4% | 3 |
| 2020 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2021 | 3.6% | 0.30 | -12.2% | 15 |
| 2022 | 6.3% | 0.62 | -10.9% | 4 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 276 | -2.1% | -1.38 | 0% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 25.7% | 2.44 | 1% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | -1.4% | -0.16 | 1% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 436 | -3.5% | -0.32 | 13% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | -15.9% | -1.39 | 8% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 809 | -9.9% | -0.91 | 10% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | -19.7% | -1.57 | 16% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 1.3% | 0.11 | 9% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | -3.0% | -0.87 | 0% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 7.7% | 1.83 | 1% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 0.6% | 0.08 | 0% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 5.2% | 0.50 | 16% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -10.1% | -1.01 | 7% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -2.4% | -0.24 | 10% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -0.6% | -0.06 | 10% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 0.4% | 0.04 | 11% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | -5.0% | -0.66 | 0% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 5.2% | 0.55 | 21% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 10.1% | 0.72 | 10% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 6.0% | 0.43 | 15% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | 1.9% | 0.16 | 13% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 5.8% | 0.48 | 10% |
Trades (full period)
latest 100 of 125
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-06 | $425.30 | $419.77 | -3.97% | 3 | |
| 2026-05-27 | 2026-06-02 | $440.36 | $423.74 | -2.56% | 5 | |
| 2026-05-22 | 2026-05-26 | $426.01 | $433.59 | 1.05% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-21 | $428.35 | $417.85 | 0.78% | 10 | |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-21 | $392.50 | $386.42 | -1.34% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-30 | $454.53 | $454.43 | 1.72% | 18 | |
| 2025-09-05 | 2025-09-15 | $350.84 | $410.04 | 9.85% | 7 | |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-09-03 | $346.60 | $334.09 | -1.98% | 7 | |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-21 | $339.03 | $320.11 | -1.14% | 9 | |
| 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-30 | $321.20 | $319.04 | -0.93% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-25 | $328.49 | $316.06 | -4.53% | 5 | |
| 2025-06-04 | 2025-06-05 | $332.05 | $284.70 | -2.25% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-06-03 | $342.69 | $344.27 | -0.77% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-22 | 2025-05-28 | $341.04 | $356.90 | 4.92% | 4 | |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-05-13 | $318.38 | $334.07 | 3.93% | 2 | |
| 2024-10-09 | 2024-10-10 | $241.05 | $238.77 | -0.97% | 2 | |
| 2024-10-07 | 2024-10-08 | $240.83 | $244.50 | -2.34% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-23 | 2024-10-04 | $250.00 | $250.08 | 0.56% | 10 | |
| 2024-09-16 | 2024-09-20 | $226.78 | $238.25 | 3.45% | 5 | |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-09 | $210.73 | $216.27 | -5.18% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-04 | 2024-09-05 | $219.41 | $230.17 | 2.39% | 2 | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2024-01-02 | $253.50 | $248.42 | -0.67% | 11 | |
| 2023-11-29 | 2023-12-14 | $244.14 | $251.05 | -1.92% | 12 | |
| 2023-11-27 | 2023-11-28 | $236.08 | $246.72 | 0.04% | 2 | |
| 2023-11-22 | 2023-11-24 | $234.21 | $235.45 | -1.86% | 2 | |
| 2023-11-20 | 2023-11-21 | $235.60 | $241.20 | 0.21% | 2 | |
| 2023-11-16 | 2023-11-17 | $233.59 | $234.30 | -2.40% | 2 | |
| 2023-10-06 | 2023-10-17 | $260.53 | $254.85 | -1.52% | 8 | |
| 2023-09-12 | 2023-09-22 | $267.48 | $244.88 | -4.05% | 9 | |
| 2023-09-06 | 2023-09-07 | $251.92 | $251.49 | -1.19% | 2 | |
| 2023-08-30 | 2023-09-05 | $256.90 | $256.49 | -2.95% | 4 | |
| 2023-07-20 | 2023-07-21 | $262.90 | $260.02 | -5.96% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-18 | 2023-07-19 | $293.34 | $291.26 | 0.49% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-14 | 2023-07-17 | $281.38 | $290.38 | 0.63% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-12 | 2023-07-13 | $271.99 | $277.90 | 0.37% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-10 | 2023-07-11 | $269.61 | $269.79 | -1.17% | 2 | |
| 2023-07-05 | 2023-07-07 | $282.48 | $274.43 | -0.82% | 3 | |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-07-03 | $261.77 | $279.82 | 0.87% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-28 | 2023-06-29 | $256.24 | $257.50 | 1.33% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-26 | 2023-06-27 | $241.05 | $250.21 | -3.75% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | 2022-08-19 | $309.32 | $296.67 | 0.46% | 5 | |
| 2022-08-04 | 2022-08-12 | $308.63 | $300.03 | -4.14% | 7 | |
| 2022-03-21 | 2022-04-11 | $307.05 | $325.31 | 7.90% | 16 | |
| 2022-01-12 | 2022-01-13 | $368.74 | $343.85 | 2.24% | 2 | |
| 2021-12-28 | 2022-01-03 | $362.82 | $399.93 | -2.17% | 5 | |
| 2021-10-12 | 2021-11-10 | $268.57 | $355.98 | 17.18% | 22 | |
| 2021-10-08 | 2021-10-11 | $261.83 | $263.98 | -0.73% | 2 | |
| 2021-09-27 | 2021-10-07 | $263.79 | $264.54 | 0.54% | 9 | |
| 2021-09-23 | 2021-09-24 | $251.21 | $258.13 | 0.02% | 2 | |
| 2021-08-31 | 2021-09-21 | $245.24 | $246.46 | -0.14% | 15 | |
| 2021-08-26 | 2021-08-27 | $233.72 | $237.31 | -0.97% | 2 | |
| 2021-08-24 | 2021-08-25 | $236.16 | $237.07 | 0.07% | 2 | |
| 2021-08-19 | 2021-08-20 | $224.49 | $226.75 | -1.47% | 2 | |
| 2021-08-02 | 2021-08-17 | $236.56 | $221.90 | -0.16% | 12 | |
| 2021-07-13 | 2021-07-15 | $222.85 | $216.87 | -2.96% | 3 | |
| 2021-06-24 | 2021-07-12 | $226.61 | $228.57 | -0.04% | 12 | |
| 2021-06-22 | 2021-06-23 | $207.90 | $218.86 | 0.16% | 2 | |
| 2021-06-18 | 2021-06-21 | $207.77 | $206.94 | 0.53% | 2 | |
| 2021-06-14 | 2021-06-15 | $205.90 | $199.79 | 0.65% | 2 | |
| 2021-04-14 | 2021-04-29 | $244.08 | $225.67 | -5.47% | 12 | |
| 2019-12-16 | 2019-12-17 | $25.43 | $25.27 | 3.75% | 2 | |
| 2019-11-22 | 2019-11-25 | $22.20 | $22.42 | -3.80% | 2 | |
| 2019-03-01 | 2019-03-04 | $19.65 | $19.02 | -4.82% | 2 | |
| 2018-12-11 | 2018-12-18 | $24.45 | $22.47 | -2.84% | 6 | |
| 2018-12-06 | 2018-12-07 | $24.20 | $23.86 | 0.44% | 2 | |
| 2018-11-29 | 2018-11-30 | $22.74 | $23.37 | -1.27% | 2 | |
| 2018-03-13 | 2018-03-15 | $22.79 | $21.71 | -3.41% | 3 | |
| 2018-01-11 | 2018-02-05 | $22.53 | $22.21 | 1.52% | 17 | |
| 2017-12-12 | 2017-12-26 | $22.74 | $21.15 | -0.76% | 10 | |
| 2017-10-18 | 2017-10-20 | $23.98 | $23.01 | -0.78% | 3 | |
| 2017-10-13 | 2017-10-17 | $23.70 | $23.72 | -0.98% | 3 | |
| 2017-03-24 | 2017-03-28 | $17.54 | $18.50 | 3.49% | 3 | |
| 2017-03-20 | 2017-03-22 | $17.46 | $17.00 | -2.60% | 3 | |
| 2017-02-01 | 2017-02-02 | $16.62 | $16.77 | -0.76% | 2 | |
| 2016-12-28 | 2017-01-25 | $14.65 | $16.96 | 9.25% | 19 | |
| 2016-07-22 | 2016-08-09 | $14.82 | $15.27 | 1.45% | 13 | |
| 2016-06-08 | 2016-06-10 | $15.70 | $14.59 | -0.88% | 3 | |
| 2015-12-29 | 2016-01-05 | $15.81 | $14.90 | -1.50% | 5 | |
| 2015-09-21 | 2015-09-29 | $17.61 | $16.44 | -2.92% | 7 | |
| 2015-08-06 | 2015-08-07 | $16.41 | $16.17 | -5.45% | 2 | |
| 2015-07-21 | 2015-07-22 | $17.78 | $17.86 | -3.41% | 2 | |
| 2015-07-15 | 2015-07-16 | $17.54 | $17.78 | -0.69% | 2 | |
| 2015-06-22 | 2015-07-09 | $17.32 | $17.19 | -1.76% | 13 | |
| 2015-06-18 | 2015-06-19 | $17.46 | $17.50 | 0.22% | 2 | |
| 2015-06-09 | 2015-06-10 | $17.07 | $16.71 | -0.19% | 2 | |
| 2015-06-05 | 2015-06-08 | $16.61 | $17.09 | 0.67% | 2 | |
| 2015-06-03 | 2015-06-04 | $16.60 | $16.39 | 0.03% | 2 | |
| 2015-06-01 | 2015-06-02 | $16.63 | $16.56 | -0.44% | 2 | |
| 2015-05-28 | 2015-05-29 | $16.76 | $16.72 | 0.85% | 2 | |
| 2015-05-26 | 2015-05-27 | $16.50 | $16.50 | -0.19% | 2 | |
| 2015-05-13 | 2015-05-22 | $16.21 | $16.52 | 0.10% | 8 | |
| 2014-11-25 | 2014-12-01 | $16.54 | $15.44 | -0.65% | 4 | |
| 2014-11-11 | 2014-11-24 | $16.74 | $16.45 | 0.15% | 10 | |
| 2014-10-08 | 2014-10-10 | $17.29 | $15.79 | -0.71% | 3 | |
| 2014-09-15 | 2014-09-16 | $16.92 | $17.38 | -5.56% | 2 | |
| 2014-09-02 | 2014-09-12 | $18.94 | $18.61 | 2.28% | 9 | |
| 2014-08-28 | 2014-08-29 | $17.59 | $17.98 | 0.02% | 2 | |
| 2014-08-26 | 2014-08-27 | $17.45 | $17.55 | -0.30% | 2 | |
| 2014-07-31 | 2014-08-25 | $14.89 | $17.50 | 7.10% | 18 | |
| 2014-06-16 | 2014-07-07 | $14.97 | $14.84 | 6.53% | 15 |