Strategy Zoo / S1024
PriceMomentum_V1024
ARCHIVEDhybridcrossoverentry from PriceMomentum_V0978, exit from PriceMomentum_V0640
Fitness
0.6618
Generation
47
Complexity
6
Created
2026-10-02
Lineage
Parents (2)
changed ret_20d threshold 0.05 -> 0.184
changed ret_20d threshold 0.05 -> 0.0091; reduce exposure to 62% during MEDIUM_VOLATILITY
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# PriceMomentum_V1024 [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
if flat and (ret_20d > 0.1146 and ret_20d > 0.0091):
position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.0017:
position = 0.0 # exit to cash
if regime.volatility == "MEDIUM_VOLATILITY": position *= 0.62Backtest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 23.6% | 78.8% | 22.5% | 33.2% |
| Total Return | 441.4% | 471.2% | 113.1% | 6684.6% |
| Sharpe | 0.96 | 1.60 | 0.86 | 1.10 |
| Sortino | 0.87 | 1.35 | 0.64 | 0.91 |
| Calmar | 0.58 | 2.33 | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| Volatility | 25.3% | 41.8% | 28.3% | 30.1% |
| Max DD | -40.8% | -33.8% | -30.4% | -40.8% |
| Win Rate | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | 50.8% |
| Avg Win | 19.4% | 38.4% | 15.8% | 25.1% |
| Avg Loss | -4.8% | -6.2% | -6.0% | -5.4% |
| Payoff | 4.07 | 6.21 | 2.64 | 4.61 |
| Expectancy | 7.3% | 16.1% | 5.6% | 10.1% |
| Profit Factor | 4.07 | 6.21 | 2.97 | 4.77 |
| Trades | 28 | 14 | 17 | 59 |
| Avg Holding Days | 20.4 | 21.2 | 14.9 | 19.8 |
| Turnover | 8.1 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 9.1 |
| Exposure | 27.2% | 30.9% | 22.5% | 26.8% |
Growth of $100
PriceMomentum_V1024 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V1024 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19.1% | 1.66 | -8.6% | 5 |
| 2017 | 0.7% | 0.14 | -18.5% | 4 |
| 2018 | -27.3% | -1.43 | -28.9% | 4 |
| 2019 | 63.0% | 2.64 | -8.5% | 2 |
| 2020 | 321.8% | 2.54 | -33.8% | 5 |
| 2021 | 69.6% | 2.33 | -11.5% | 2 |
| 2022 | -22.4% | -1.22 | -28.8% | 7 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 276 | 21.1% | 0.83 | 19% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 46.2% | 1.32 | 42% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 174.5% | 3.21 | 63% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | 34.5% | 0.85 | 33% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 436 | 36.8% | 1.95 | 19% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | -7.9% | -0.29 | 19% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 809 | 13.1% | 0.52 | 18% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | 1.7% | 0.15 | 2% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 44.5% | 1.17 | 41% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | 13.1% | 1.48 | 7% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 28.0% | 0.89 | 54% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 375.7% | 5.25 | 90% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 44.5% | 1.29 | 28% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 25.9% | 1.31 | 37% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -2.8% | -0.16 | 14% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | 1.6% | 0.10 | 18% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -5.2% | -0.54 | 2% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 50.0% | 1.38 | 55% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 32.8% | 1.74 | 7% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 56.8% | 1.26 | 39% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 260.0% | 3.46 | 74% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 67.3% | 1.08 | 42% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 45.7% | 2.76 | 22% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 78.8% | 2.71 | 27% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 11.1% | 0.53 | 16% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -7.3% | -0.93 | 2% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 112.8% | 2.07 | 52% |
Trades (full period)
59 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-30 | $348.95 | $354.81 | -4.99% | 27 | |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-01 | $435.79 | $415.88 | -1.63% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-08 | $398.73 | $428.35 | 5.55% | 3 | |
| 2025-12-15 | 2026-01-05 | $475.31 | $451.67 | -4.74% | 14 | |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-10-23 | $410.04 | $448.98 | 8.56% | 29 | |
| 2025-05-22 | 2025-06-06 | $341.04 | $295.14 | -8.36% | 11 | |
| 2025-05-06 | 2025-05-12 | $275.35 | $318.38 | 6.21% | 5 | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-02 | $282.16 | $287.21 | -4.14% | 3 | |
| 2025-04-16 | 2025-04-22 | $241.55 | $237.97 | -10.66% | 4 | |
| 2024-11-07 | 2025-01-13 | $296.91 | $403.31 | 34.39% | 44 | |
| 2024-10-03 | 2024-10-14 | $240.66 | $219.16 | -12.83% | 8 | |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-27 | $210.73 | $260.46 | 8.93% | 16 | |
| 2024-07-02 | 2024-08-02 | $231.26 | $207.67 | 1.62% | 23 | |
| 2024-05-15 | 2024-05-29 | $173.99 | $176.19 | -0.65% | 10 | |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-07-24 | $213.97 | $269.06 | 27.25% | 35 | |
| 2023-05-23 | 2023-05-31 | $185.77 | $203.93 | 6.29% | 6 | |
| 2023-01-25 | 2023-02-10 | $144.43 | $196.89 | 43.79% | 13 | |
| 2022-08-16 | 2022-08-22 | $306.56 | $289.91 | -3.51% | 5 | |
| 2022-08-05 | 2022-08-08 | $288.17 | $290.42 | -4.23% | 2 | |
| 2022-07-19 | 2022-08-02 | $245.53 | $300.59 | 18.04% | 11 | |
| 2022-06-24 | 2022-06-29 | $245.71 | $228.49 | -1.22% | 4 | |
| 2022-04-05 | 2022-04-21 | $363.75 | $336.26 | -9.34% | 12 | |
| 2022-01-13 | 2022-01-20 | $343.85 | $332.09 | -10.18% | 5 | |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-01-07 | $383.20 | $342.32 | -11.44% | 4 | |
| 2021-09-16 | 2021-12-01 | $252.33 | $365.00 | 52.37% | 54 | |
| 2020-11-19 | 2021-02-09 | $166.42 | $283.15 | 43.83% | 55 | |
| 2020-10-07 | 2020-10-14 | $141.77 | $153.77 | 7.28% | 6 | |
| 2020-08-18 | 2020-09-24 | $125.81 | $129.26 | -3.40% | 27 | |
| 2020-05-20 | 2020-08-10 | $54.37 | $94.57 | 64.27% | 57 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-04-30 | $47.33 | $52.13 | 22.74% | 13 | |
| 2019-10-25 | 2020-03-04 | $21.88 | $49.97 | 130.51% | 89 | |
| 2019-09-27 | 2019-10-10 | $16.14 | $16.32 | 0.42% | 10 | |
| 2019-06-21 | 2019-07-22 | $14.79 | $17.05 | 16.36% | 21 | |
| 2018-11-19 | 2018-11-20 | $23.56 | $23.17 | -0.44% | 2 | |
| 2018-08-03 | 2018-08-20 | $23.21 | $20.56 | -12.77% | 12 | |
| 2018-06-15 | 2018-07-05 | $23.88 | $20.61 | -13.27% | 14 | |
| 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-04 | $19.99 | $19.61 | -3.41% | 4 | |
| 2017-08-04 | 2017-08-22 | $23.79 | $22.76 | -2.71% | 13 | |
| 2017-06-05 | 2017-07-06 | $23.15 | $20.59 | -4.01% | 23 | |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-24 | $20.25 | $20.68 | -1.84% | 36 | |
| 2017-01-05 | 2017-02-28 | $15.12 | $16.67 | 9.89% | 37 | |
| 2016-12-21 | 2016-12-28 | $13.85 | $14.65 | 5.14% | 5 | |
| 2016-07-26 | 2016-08-16 | $15.30 | $14.91 | -2.12% | 16 | |
| 2016-04-05 | 2016-05-03 | $17.03 | $15.49 | -1.98% | 21 | |
| 2016-03-24 | 2016-03-28 | $15.18 | $15.35 | 1.32% | 2 | |
| 2016-03-04 | 2016-03-21 | $13.40 | $15.89 | 16.56% | 12 | |
| 2015-05-11 | 2015-07-09 | $15.97 | $17.19 | 7.54% | 42 | |
| 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-01 | $15.50 | $15.07 | -2.12% | 3 | |
| 2015-04-24 | 2015-04-28 | $14.56 | $15.37 | 5.71% | 3 | |
| 2014-08-07 | 2014-09-16 | $16.83 | $17.38 | 1.78% | 28 | |
| 2014-06-23 | 2014-07-16 | $15.81 | $14.48 | -4.55% | 17 | |
| 2014-01-24 | 2014-03-26 | $11.64 | $14.20 | 12.76% | 43 | |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-10-22 | $7.85 | $11.44 | 50.70% | 79 | |
| 2013-04-02 | 2013-06-26 | $2.96 | $7.05 | 139.30% | 61 | |
| 2013-01-29 | 2013-02-22 | $2.53 | $2.41 | -7.73% | 18 | |
| 2012-11-23 | 2012-12-14 | $2.14 | $2.25 | 3.30% | 16 | |
| 2012-03-28 | 2012-04-10 | $2.52 | $2.16 | -8.06% | 9 | |
| 2012-02-23 | 2012-03-23 | $2.30 | $2.27 | 0.33% | 22 | |
| 2012-02-21 | 2012-02-22 | $2.30 | $2.28 | -1.54% | 2 |