Strategy Zoo / S0951

PriceMomentum_V0951

ARCHIVEDhybrid

structuralreduce exposure to 36% during EXTREME; restricted to bubble regimes ['EXTREME', 'NORMAL']

Fitness
0.3041
Generation
43
Complexity
27
Created
2026-09-30

Lineage

Parents (1)
PriceMomentum_V0816S0816 · gen 37ARCHIVEDstructural

changed ret_1d threshold 0.0336 -> -0.005

Children (0)
None

Strategy Logic (pseudocode)

# PriceMomentum_V0951  [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
require regime.bubble in ['EXTREME', 'NORMAL']
if flat and (((ret_20d > 0.05 and rel_volume > 1.2635) or (((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > -0.0024) or ret_20d > 0.085) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.3135)) or ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_1d > -0.005)):
    position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.006:
    position = 0.0  # exit to cash
if regime.bubble == "EXTREME": position *= 0.36

Backtest Metrics

MetricTrainValidationHidden TestFull
CAGR8.0%15.7%-0.4%7.3%
Total Return84.8%54.8%-1.7%181.4%
Sharpe0.500.700.120.43
Sortino0.360.570.080.30
Calmar0.240.44-0.010.15
Volatility19.2%25.2%26.5%22.5%
Max DD-33.2%-35.8%-48.9%-48.9%
Win Rate47.8%44.4%46.2%46.7%
Avg Win7.7%16.4%9.0%9.7%
Avg Loss-3.8%-6.5%-6.7%-5.2%
Payoff2.022.531.351.87
Expectancy1.7%3.7%0.6%1.8%
Profit Factor1.852.021.161.64
Trades46182690
Avg Holding Days11.714.98.511.4
Turnover10.48.212.510.5
Exposure21.4%22.8%21.6%21.7%

Growth of $100

PriceMomentum_V0951 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V0951 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.

Walk-Forward Years

year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
YearCAGRSharpeMax DDTrades
201628.5%1.87-11.0%6
201711.7%1.79-2.2%4
2018-30.3%-1.42-30.4%8
201938.1%1.89-8.5%4
202043.3%1.66-17.7%8
202150.0%1.62-17.6%3
2022-28.2%-1.22-30.9%7

A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.

Regime Performance

PeriodRegimeDaysAnn. ReturnSharpeExposure
hidden testDOWNTREND274-24.5%-0.9428%
hidden testEXPENSIVE8331.0%1.714%
hidden testEXTREME488.3%0.4920%
hidden testHIGH VOLATILITY254-50.6%-1.4527%
hidden testLOW VOLATILITY43422.1%1.1020%
hidden testMEDIUM VOLATILITY25024.7%0.9319%
hidden testNORMAL807-0.1%-0.0023%
hidden testSIDEWAYS293-2.4%-0.163%
hidden testUPTREND37127.9%0.8531%
trainDOWNTREND51810.6%0.8415%
trainEXPENSIVE3114.1%0.463%
trainEXTREME100107.9%4.3532%
trainHIGH VOLATILITY69911.7%0.5314%
trainLOW VOLATILITY74518.2%0.9734%
trainMEDIUM VOLATILITY568-4.5%-0.2914%
trainNORMAL1,6014.4%0.2224%
trainSIDEWAYS592-3.9%-0.363%
trainUPTREND90217.7%0.6937%
validationDOWNTREND12543.5%1.9914%
validationEXPENSIVE138-34.7%-2.762%
validationEXTREME14496.2%3.4229%
validationHIGH VOLATILITY2589.4%0.3122%
validationLOW VOLATILITY18320.2%1.2134%
validationMEDIUM VOLATILITY31523.2%0.9217%
validationNORMAL4749.2%0.3427%
validationSIDEWAYS206-17.4%-1.763%
validationUPTREND42527.2%0.8935%

Trades (full period)

91 trades
EntryExitEntry PxExit PxReturnDays
2026-08-24—$348.95—-2.86%26OPEN
2026-05-292026-06-01$435.79$415.88-1.63%2
2026-05-052026-05-08$389.37$428.354.70%4
2025-12-152026-01-05$475.31$451.67-4.74%14
2025-09-122025-09-15$395.94$410.047.15%2
2025-09-042025-09-05$338.53$350.841.13%2
2025-06-022025-06-06$342.69$295.14-17.99%5
2025-05-222025-05-28$341.04$356.908.23%4
2025-05-062025-05-12$275.35$318.386.21%5
2025-04-302025-05-02$282.16$287.21-4.14%3
2025-04-102025-04-22$252.40$237.97-16.60%8
2025-04-082025-04-09$221.86$272.20-5.09%2
2025-01-062025-01-13$411.05$403.31-1.45%5
2024-12-032025-01-03$351.42$410.442.58%22
2024-11-252024-11-26$338.59$338.23-1.50%2
2024-11-192024-11-22$346.00$352.560.03%4
2024-11-122024-11-14$328.49$311.18-2.10%3
2024-10-032024-10-14$240.66$219.16-12.71%8
2024-09-042024-09-27$219.41$260.4620.48%18
2024-07-022024-08-02$231.26$207.673.14%23
2024-05-152024-05-29$173.99$176.19-0.65%10
2024-04-302024-05-10$183.28$168.47-11.56%9
2024-02-272024-03-07$199.73$178.65-11.64%8
2023-07-262023-08-02$264.35$254.11-1.78%6
2023-06-022023-07-24$213.97$269.0625.05%35
2023-05-192023-05-31$180.14$203.9313.50%8
2023-01-302023-02-10$166.66$196.8916.30%10
2022-09-212022-09-23$300.80$275.33-6.71%3
2022-08-162022-08-22$306.56$289.91-4.28%5
2022-08-052022-08-08$288.17$290.42-6.82%2
2022-07-142022-08-02$238.31$300.5925.16%14
2022-06-222022-06-29$236.09$228.49-2.04%6
2022-04-052022-04-21$363.75$336.26-14.86%12
2022-01-042022-01-20$383.20$332.09-17.18%12
2021-08-242021-12-01$236.16$365.0061.75%70
2021-08-052021-08-23$238.21$235.43-4.50%13
2021-01-112021-01-12$270.40$283.15-2.89%2
2020-12-082020-12-10$216.63$209.02-2.14%3
2020-09-152020-09-24$149.92$129.26-3.27%8
2020-08-142020-09-09$110.05$122.091.84%18
2020-06-302020-08-10$71.99$94.5714.87%29
2020-06-012020-06-25$59.87$65.735.46%19
2020-05-152020-05-29$53.28$55.670.05%10
2020-04-142020-04-30$47.33$52.138.08%13
2020-01-222020-03-04$37.97$49.9713.64%30
2019-10-252019-12-17$21.88$25.2727.06%37
2019-10-212019-10-22$16.90$17.04-1.54%2
2019-09-272019-10-10$16.14$16.320.61%10
2019-07-052019-07-22$15.54$17.059.69%12
2018-11-292018-12-19$22.74$22.20-3.31%14
2018-11-192018-11-20$23.56$23.17-0.44%2
2018-08-222018-08-28$21.44$20.79-1.02%5
2018-08-032018-08-20$23.21$20.56-12.77%12
2018-06-152018-07-05$23.88$20.61-13.27%14
2018-06-072018-06-12$21.07$22.853.73%4
2018-04-272018-05-04$19.61$19.61-0.56%6
2018-02-012018-02-06$23.28$22.26-6.17%4
2017-06-142017-06-30$25.38$24.11-1.50%13
2017-04-062017-04-07$19.91$20.171.05%2
2017-01-312017-02-03$16.80$16.760.17%4
2017-01-052017-01-25$15.12$16.9611.94%14
2016-12-142016-12-28$13.25$14.6510.57%10
2016-07-262016-08-17$15.30$14.88-2.98%17
2016-06-082016-06-09$15.70$15.291.17%2
2016-04-052016-05-03$17.03$15.49-2.29%21
2016-03-242016-03-28$15.18$15.352.12%2
2016-03-042016-03-21$13.40$15.8918.67%12
2015-12-032015-12-29$15.51$15.81-1.51%18
2015-11-302015-12-02$15.35$15.472.20%3
2015-08-062015-08-07$16.41$16.17-9.08%2
2015-05-112015-07-27$15.97$16.8711.95%54
2015-04-292015-05-01$15.50$15.07-2.12%3
2015-04-232015-04-28$14.57$15.375.31%4
2015-04-092015-04-14$14.01$13.830.82%4
2015-02-112015-02-25$14.19$13.58-5.82%10
2014-08-052014-09-16$15.90$17.386.22%30
2014-06-232014-07-16$15.81$14.48-4.55%17
2013-08-232013-09-09$10.79$10.712.17%11
2013-08-092013-08-15$10.20$9.31-3.45%5
2013-07-222013-08-08$8.16$10.234.28%14
2013-07-182013-07-19$7.94$7.98-0.44%2
2013-07-012013-07-17$7.81$8.020.91%12
2013-04-192013-06-25$3.19$6.8334.25%47
2013-03-262013-04-11$2.52$2.9111.32%12
2013-02-152013-02-22$2.47$2.41-8.31%5
2013-02-122013-02-14$2.53$2.55-0.12%3
2012-12-182012-12-31$2.31$2.26-3.62%9
2012-11-232012-12-14$2.14$2.253.30%16
2012-08-312012-09-06$1.90$1.90-1.85%4
2012-02-232012-04-10$2.30$2.16-3.32%33
2012-02-212012-02-22$2.30$2.28-1.54%2