Strategy Zoo / S0951
PriceMomentum_V0951
ARCHIVEDhybridstructuralreduce exposure to 36% during EXTREME; restricted to bubble regimes ['EXTREME', 'NORMAL']
Fitness
0.3041
Generation
43
Complexity
27
Created
2026-09-30
Lineage
Parents (1)
changed ret_1d threshold 0.0336 -> -0.005
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# PriceMomentum_V0951 [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
require regime.bubble in ['EXTREME', 'NORMAL']
if flat and (((ret_20d > 0.05 and rel_volume > 1.2635) or (((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > -0.0024) or ret_20d > 0.085) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.3135)) or ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_1d > -0.005)):
position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.006:
position = 0.0 # exit to cash
if regime.bubble == "EXTREME": position *= 0.36Backtest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 8.0% | 15.7% | -0.4% | 7.3% |
| Total Return | 84.8% | 54.8% | -1.7% | 181.4% |
| Sharpe | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.12 | 0.43 |
| Sortino | 0.36 | 0.57 | 0.08 | 0.30 |
| Calmar | 0.24 | 0.44 | -0.01 | 0.15 |
| Volatility | 19.2% | 25.2% | 26.5% | 22.5% |
| Max DD | -33.2% | -35.8% | -48.9% | -48.9% |
| Win Rate | 47.8% | 44.4% | 46.2% | 46.7% |
| Avg Win | 7.7% | 16.4% | 9.0% | 9.7% |
| Avg Loss | -3.8% | -6.5% | -6.7% | -5.2% |
| Payoff | 2.02 | 2.53 | 1.35 | 1.87 |
| Expectancy | 1.7% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 1.8% |
| Profit Factor | 1.85 | 2.02 | 1.16 | 1.64 |
| Trades | 46 | 18 | 26 | 90 |
| Avg Holding Days | 11.7 | 14.9 | 8.5 | 11.4 |
| Turnover | 10.4 | 8.2 | 12.5 | 10.5 |
| Exposure | 21.4% | 22.8% | 21.6% | 21.7% |
Growth of $100
PriceMomentum_V0951 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V0951 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 28.5% | 1.87 | -11.0% | 6 |
| 2017 | 11.7% | 1.79 | -2.2% | 4 |
| 2018 | -30.3% | -1.42 | -30.4% | 8 |
| 2019 | 38.1% | 1.89 | -8.5% | 4 |
| 2020 | 43.3% | 1.66 | -17.7% | 8 |
| 2021 | 50.0% | 1.62 | -17.6% | 3 |
| 2022 | -28.2% | -1.22 | -30.9% | 7 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 274 | -24.5% | -0.94 | 28% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 31.0% | 1.71 | 4% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 8.3% | 0.49 | 20% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | -50.6% | -1.45 | 27% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 434 | 22.1% | 1.10 | 20% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | 24.7% | 0.93 | 19% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 807 | -0.1% | -0.00 | 23% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | -2.4% | -0.16 | 3% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 27.9% | 0.85 | 31% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | 10.6% | 0.84 | 15% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 4.1% | 0.46 | 3% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 107.9% | 4.35 | 32% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 11.7% | 0.53 | 14% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 18.2% | 0.97 | 34% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -4.5% | -0.29 | 14% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | 4.4% | 0.22 | 24% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -3.9% | -0.36 | 3% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 17.7% | 0.69 | 37% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 43.5% | 1.99 | 14% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | -34.7% | -2.76 | 2% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 96.2% | 3.42 | 29% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 9.4% | 0.31 | 22% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 20.2% | 1.21 | 34% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 23.2% | 0.92 | 17% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 9.2% | 0.34 | 27% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -17.4% | -1.76 | 3% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 27.2% | 0.89 | 35% |
Trades (full period)
91 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | — | $348.95 | — | -2.86% | 26 | OPEN |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-01 | $435.79 | $415.88 | -1.63% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-05 | 2026-05-08 | $389.37 | $428.35 | 4.70% | 4 | |
| 2025-12-15 | 2026-01-05 | $475.31 | $451.67 | -4.74% | 14 | |
| 2025-09-12 | 2025-09-15 | $395.94 | $410.04 | 7.15% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-04 | 2025-09-05 | $338.53 | $350.84 | 1.13% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-06-06 | $342.69 | $295.14 | -17.99% | 5 | |
| 2025-05-22 | 2025-05-28 | $341.04 | $356.90 | 8.23% | 4 | |
| 2025-05-06 | 2025-05-12 | $275.35 | $318.38 | 6.21% | 5 | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-02 | $282.16 | $287.21 | -4.14% | 3 | |
| 2025-04-10 | 2025-04-22 | $252.40 | $237.97 | -16.60% | 8 | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-04-09 | $221.86 | $272.20 | -5.09% | 2 | |
| 2025-01-06 | 2025-01-13 | $411.05 | $403.31 | -1.45% | 5 | |
| 2024-12-03 | 2025-01-03 | $351.42 | $410.44 | 2.58% | 22 | |
| 2024-11-25 | 2024-11-26 | $338.59 | $338.23 | -1.50% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-19 | 2024-11-22 | $346.00 | $352.56 | 0.03% | 4 | |
| 2024-11-12 | 2024-11-14 | $328.49 | $311.18 | -2.10% | 3 | |
| 2024-10-03 | 2024-10-14 | $240.66 | $219.16 | -12.71% | 8 | |
| 2024-09-04 | 2024-09-27 | $219.41 | $260.46 | 20.48% | 18 | |
| 2024-07-02 | 2024-08-02 | $231.26 | $207.67 | 3.14% | 23 | |
| 2024-05-15 | 2024-05-29 | $173.99 | $176.19 | -0.65% | 10 | |
| 2024-04-30 | 2024-05-10 | $183.28 | $168.47 | -11.56% | 9 | |
| 2024-02-27 | 2024-03-07 | $199.73 | $178.65 | -11.64% | 8 | |
| 2023-07-26 | 2023-08-02 | $264.35 | $254.11 | -1.78% | 6 | |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-07-24 | $213.97 | $269.06 | 25.05% | 35 | |
| 2023-05-19 | 2023-05-31 | $180.14 | $203.93 | 13.50% | 8 | |
| 2023-01-30 | 2023-02-10 | $166.66 | $196.89 | 16.30% | 10 | |
| 2022-09-21 | 2022-09-23 | $300.80 | $275.33 | -6.71% | 3 | |
| 2022-08-16 | 2022-08-22 | $306.56 | $289.91 | -4.28% | 5 | |
| 2022-08-05 | 2022-08-08 | $288.17 | $290.42 | -6.82% | 2 | |
| 2022-07-14 | 2022-08-02 | $238.31 | $300.59 | 25.16% | 14 | |
| 2022-06-22 | 2022-06-29 | $236.09 | $228.49 | -2.04% | 6 | |
| 2022-04-05 | 2022-04-21 | $363.75 | $336.26 | -14.86% | 12 | |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-01-20 | $383.20 | $332.09 | -17.18% | 12 | |
| 2021-08-24 | 2021-12-01 | $236.16 | $365.00 | 61.75% | 70 | |
| 2021-08-05 | 2021-08-23 | $238.21 | $235.43 | -4.50% | 13 | |
| 2021-01-11 | 2021-01-12 | $270.40 | $283.15 | -2.89% | 2 | |
| 2020-12-08 | 2020-12-10 | $216.63 | $209.02 | -2.14% | 3 | |
| 2020-09-15 | 2020-09-24 | $149.92 | $129.26 | -3.27% | 8 | |
| 2020-08-14 | 2020-09-09 | $110.05 | $122.09 | 1.84% | 18 | |
| 2020-06-30 | 2020-08-10 | $71.99 | $94.57 | 14.87% | 29 | |
| 2020-06-01 | 2020-06-25 | $59.87 | $65.73 | 5.46% | 19 | |
| 2020-05-15 | 2020-05-29 | $53.28 | $55.67 | 0.05% | 10 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-04-30 | $47.33 | $52.13 | 8.08% | 13 | |
| 2020-01-22 | 2020-03-04 | $37.97 | $49.97 | 13.64% | 30 | |
| 2019-10-25 | 2019-12-17 | $21.88 | $25.27 | 27.06% | 37 | |
| 2019-10-21 | 2019-10-22 | $16.90 | $17.04 | -1.54% | 2 | |
| 2019-09-27 | 2019-10-10 | $16.14 | $16.32 | 0.61% | 10 | |
| 2019-07-05 | 2019-07-22 | $15.54 | $17.05 | 9.69% | 12 | |
| 2018-11-29 | 2018-12-19 | $22.74 | $22.20 | -3.31% | 14 | |
| 2018-11-19 | 2018-11-20 | $23.56 | $23.17 | -0.44% | 2 | |
| 2018-08-22 | 2018-08-28 | $21.44 | $20.79 | -1.02% | 5 | |
| 2018-08-03 | 2018-08-20 | $23.21 | $20.56 | -12.77% | 12 | |
| 2018-06-15 | 2018-07-05 | $23.88 | $20.61 | -13.27% | 14 | |
| 2018-06-07 | 2018-06-12 | $21.07 | $22.85 | 3.73% | 4 | |
| 2018-04-27 | 2018-05-04 | $19.61 | $19.61 | -0.56% | 6 | |
| 2018-02-01 | 2018-02-06 | $23.28 | $22.26 | -6.17% | 4 | |
| 2017-06-14 | 2017-06-30 | $25.38 | $24.11 | -1.50% | 13 | |
| 2017-04-06 | 2017-04-07 | $19.91 | $20.17 | 1.05% | 2 | |
| 2017-01-31 | 2017-02-03 | $16.80 | $16.76 | 0.17% | 4 | |
| 2017-01-05 | 2017-01-25 | $15.12 | $16.96 | 11.94% | 14 | |
| 2016-12-14 | 2016-12-28 | $13.25 | $14.65 | 10.57% | 10 | |
| 2016-07-26 | 2016-08-17 | $15.30 | $14.88 | -2.98% | 17 | |
| 2016-06-08 | 2016-06-09 | $15.70 | $15.29 | 1.17% | 2 | |
| 2016-04-05 | 2016-05-03 | $17.03 | $15.49 | -2.29% | 21 | |
| 2016-03-24 | 2016-03-28 | $15.18 | $15.35 | 2.12% | 2 | |
| 2016-03-04 | 2016-03-21 | $13.40 | $15.89 | 18.67% | 12 | |
| 2015-12-03 | 2015-12-29 | $15.51 | $15.81 | -1.51% | 18 | |
| 2015-11-30 | 2015-12-02 | $15.35 | $15.47 | 2.20% | 3 | |
| 2015-08-06 | 2015-08-07 | $16.41 | $16.17 | -9.08% | 2 | |
| 2015-05-11 | 2015-07-27 | $15.97 | $16.87 | 11.95% | 54 | |
| 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-01 | $15.50 | $15.07 | -2.12% | 3 | |
| 2015-04-23 | 2015-04-28 | $14.57 | $15.37 | 5.31% | 4 | |
| 2015-04-09 | 2015-04-14 | $14.01 | $13.83 | 0.82% | 4 | |
| 2015-02-11 | 2015-02-25 | $14.19 | $13.58 | -5.82% | 10 | |
| 2014-08-05 | 2014-09-16 | $15.90 | $17.38 | 6.22% | 30 | |
| 2014-06-23 | 2014-07-16 | $15.81 | $14.48 | -4.55% | 17 | |
| 2013-08-23 | 2013-09-09 | $10.79 | $10.71 | 2.17% | 11 | |
| 2013-08-09 | 2013-08-15 | $10.20 | $9.31 | -3.45% | 5 | |
| 2013-07-22 | 2013-08-08 | $8.16 | $10.23 | 4.28% | 14 | |
| 2013-07-18 | 2013-07-19 | $7.94 | $7.98 | -0.44% | 2 | |
| 2013-07-01 | 2013-07-17 | $7.81 | $8.02 | 0.91% | 12 | |
| 2013-04-19 | 2013-06-25 | $3.19 | $6.83 | 34.25% | 47 | |
| 2013-03-26 | 2013-04-11 | $2.52 | $2.91 | 11.32% | 12 | |
| 2013-02-15 | 2013-02-22 | $2.47 | $2.41 | -8.31% | 5 | |
| 2013-02-12 | 2013-02-14 | $2.53 | $2.55 | -0.12% | 3 | |
| 2012-12-18 | 2012-12-31 | $2.31 | $2.26 | -3.62% | 9 | |
| 2012-11-23 | 2012-12-14 | $2.14 | $2.25 | 3.30% | 16 | |
| 2012-08-31 | 2012-09-06 | $1.90 | $1.90 | -1.85% | 4 | |
| 2012-02-23 | 2012-04-10 | $2.30 | $2.16 | -3.32% | 33 | |
| 2012-02-21 | 2012-02-22 | $2.30 | $2.28 | -1.54% | 2 |