Strategy Zoo / S0871
Breakout20_V0871
ARCHIVEDhybridcrossoverentry = Breakout20_V0692 AND MACDMomentum_V0272
Fitness
0.6564
Generation
40
Complexity
20
Created
2026-09-29
Lineage
Parents (2)
entry = MACDMomentum_V0005 OR VolumeBreakout_V0185
entry from Breakout20_V0374, exit from LongTermTrend_V0519
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# Breakout20_V0871 [hybrid]
if flat and ((breakout_20 == 1 and dist_sma_20 > -0.121 and vol_chg < 1.2007) and ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) or ((breakout_50 == 1 and rel_volume > 1.5045) or ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) and sma_50 > sma_200)))):
position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.006:
position = 0.0 # exit to cash
if regime.volatility == "HIGH_VOLATILITY": position *= 0.41Backtest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 13.0% | 94.4% | 1.3% | 23.0% |
| Total Return | 164.9% | 635.1% | 4.8% | 2001.3% |
| Sharpe | 0.60 | 1.99 | 0.19 | 0.86 |
| Sortino | 0.54 | 2.44 | 0.16 | 0.82 |
| Calmar | 0.31 | 3.88 | 0.04 | 0.54 |
| Volatility | 25.7% | 36.9% | 29.0% | 29.1% |
| Max DD | -42.3% | -24.4% | -34.1% | -42.3% |
| Win Rate | 44.1% | 53.8% | 27.8% | 41.5% |
| Avg Win | 12.6% | 44.9% | 21.1% | 25.9% |
| Avg Loss | -5.8% | -6.5% | -6.2% | -6.1% |
| Payoff | 2.17 | 6.86 | 3.39 | 4.28 |
| Expectancy | 2.3% | 21.1% | 1.4% | 7.2% |
| Profit Factor | 1.71 | 8.00 | 1.30 | 3.04 |
| Trades | 34 | 13 | 18 | 65 |
| Avg Holding Days | 25.3 | 31.0 | 19.9 | 25.8 |
| Turnover | 9.4 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 9.6 |
| Exposure | 36.6% | 42.1% | 32.8% | 36.8% |
Growth of $100
Breakout20_V0871 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
Breakout20_V0871 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3.3% | 0.26 | -24.8% | 3 |
| 2017 | 9.3% | 0.48 | -25.5% | 6 |
| 2018 | -14.0% | -0.97 | -18.3% | 5 |
| 2019 | 50.4% | 1.47 | -18.3% | 3 |
| 2020 | 375.6% | 3.62 | -15.4% | 4 |
| 2021 | 61.6% | 1.54 | -18.2% | 4 |
| 2022 | -8.2% | -0.21 | -24.4% | 5 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 273 | 6.2% | 0.41 | 12% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 53.2% | 1.39 | 55% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 92.9% | 2.52 | 37% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | -1.8% | -0.06 | 16% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 433 | 48.3% | 1.93 | 37% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | -61.3% | -1.73 | 42% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 806 | -4.6% | -0.17 | 30% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | -42.3% | -1.50 | 38% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 42.8% | 1.18 | 44% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | 3.5% | 0.24 | 16% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 38.6% | 1.13 | 54% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 175.9% | 4.74 | 55% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 16.2% | 0.64 | 16% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 36.6% | 1.53 | 56% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -13.1% | -0.47 | 38% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | 1.0% | 0.04 | 32% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -11.2% | -0.51 | 28% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 39.9% | 1.24 | 54% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 5.1% | 0.31 | 6% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 95.4% | 2.12 | 52% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 239.8% | 4.93 | 52% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 41.1% | 1.18 | 21% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 43.0% | 1.76 | 55% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 117.2% | 2.68 | 52% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 16.2% | 0.57 | 36% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | 1.9% | 0.07 | 33% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 127.9% | 2.86 | 57% |
Trades (full period)
66 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | — | $356.09 | — | -2.95% | 19 | OPEN |
| 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-06 | $393.45 | $419.77 | -7.68% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-08 | 2026-06-08 | $428.35 | $408.95 | -5.23% | 21 | |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-24 | $392.50 | $376.30 | -6.90% | 5 | |
| 2025-12-08 | 2026-01-05 | $439.58 | $451.67 | -3.92% | 19 | |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-13 | $444.26 | $401.99 | -8.25% | 8 | |
| 2025-08-26 | 2025-10-23 | $351.67 | $448.98 | 26.40% | 42 | |
| 2025-08-12 | 2025-08-20 | $340.84 | $323.90 | -3.06% | 7 | |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-06-12 | $318.38 | $319.11 | -4.69% | 23 | |
| 2025-04-28 | 2025-05-02 | $285.88 | $287.21 | -0.70% | 5 | |
| 2024-11-08 | 2025-01-13 | $321.22 | $403.31 | 16.28% | 43 | |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024-10-14 | $210.73 | $219.16 | -9.31% | 27 | |
| 2024-06-27 | 2024-08-02 | $197.42 | $207.67 | 17.81% | 26 | |
| 2024-06-18 | 2024-06-21 | $184.86 | $183.01 | -3.33% | 3 | |
| 2023-11-16 | 2024-01-08 | $233.59 | $240.45 | -2.40% | 35 | |
| 2023-09-12 | 2023-09-28 | $267.48 | $246.38 | -12.27% | 13 | |
| 2023-05-22 | 2023-07-24 | $188.87 | $269.06 | 44.06% | 43 | |
| 2023-04-03 | 2023-04-13 | $194.77 | $185.90 | -13.16% | 8 | |
| 2023-01-27 | 2023-03-08 | $177.90 | $182.00 | 0.84% | 28 | |
| 2022-09-20 | 2022-09-23 | $308.73 | $275.33 | -6.81% | 4 | |
| 2022-07-22 | 2022-08-29 | $272.24 | $284.82 | 5.82% | 27 | |
| 2022-07-11 | 2022-07-12 | $234.34 | $233.07 | -6.74% | 2 | |
| 2022-03-21 | 2022-04-21 | $307.05 | $336.26 | 7.72% | 23 | |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-01-24 | $383.20 | $310.00 | -7.28% | 14 | |
| 2021-08-02 | 2021-12-01 | $236.56 | $365.00 | 54.62% | 86 | |
| 2021-06-24 | 2021-07-23 | $226.61 | $214.46 | -1.31% | 21 | |
| 2021-04-14 | 2021-05-04 | $244.08 | $224.53 | -10.34% | 15 | |
| 2020-11-18 | 2021-02-09 | $162.21 | $283.15 | 95.14% | 56 | |
| 2020-10-15 | 2020-10-20 | $149.63 | $140.65 | -6.79% | 4 | |
| 2020-08-19 | 2020-09-24 | $125.24 | $129.26 | 12.97% | 26 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-08-10 | $47.33 | $94.57 | 77.03% | 83 | |
| 2019-10-14 | 2020-03-04 | $17.13 | $49.97 | 152.76% | 98 | |
| 2019-09-11 | 2019-10-10 | $16.47 | $16.32 | 3.61% | 22 | |
| 2019-07-02 | 2019-08-06 | $14.97 | $15.38 | 0.48% | 25 | |
| 2019-01-18 | 2019-01-22 | $20.15 | $19.93 | -5.40% | 2 | |
| 2018-11-01 | 2018-12-19 | $22.95 | $22.20 | 1.88% | 33 | |
| 2018-06-14 | 2018-07-06 | $23.85 | $20.59 | -4.26% | 16 | |
| 2018-05-10 | 2018-05-16 | $20.33 | $19.10 | -6.53% | 5 | |
| 2018-02-27 | 2018-03-01 | $23.40 | $22.06 | -1.74% | 3 | |
| 2018-01-18 | 2018-02-07 | $22.97 | $23.00 | -3.99% | 15 | |
| 2017-12-12 | 2017-12-28 | $22.74 | $21.02 | -5.44% | 12 | |
| 2017-09-14 | 2017-09-26 | $25.18 | $23.02 | -5.99% | 9 | |
| 2017-08-04 | 2017-08-22 | $23.79 | $22.76 | -1.69% | 13 | |
| 2017-05-31 | 2017-07-06 | $22.73 | $20.59 | -3.39% | 26 | |
| 2017-03-27 | 2017-05-24 | $18.01 | $20.68 | 14.29% | 42 | |
| 2016-12-14 | 2017-02-28 | $13.25 | $16.67 | 24.02% | 51 | |
| 2016-07-12 | 2016-08-17 | $14.98 | $14.88 | 0.44% | 27 | |
| 2016-06-09 | 2016-06-23 | $15.29 | $13.09 | -16.67% | 11 | |
| 2016-03-04 | 2016-05-03 | $13.40 | $15.49 | 14.54% | 42 | |
| 2015-12-31 | 2016-01-05 | $16.00 | $14.90 | -6.35% | 3 | |
| 2015-12-02 | 2015-12-29 | $15.47 | $15.81 | -2.57% | 19 | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-09-30 | $17.47 | $16.56 | -5.79% | 10 | |
| 2015-04-07 | 2015-07-27 | $13.55 | $16.87 | 30.42% | 78 | |
| 2015-02-04 | 2015-02-25 | $14.57 | $13.58 | -6.71% | 15 | |
| 2014-11-12 | 2014-12-02 | $16.61 | $15.43 | -7.93% | 14 | |
| 2014-08-05 | 2014-09-16 | $15.90 | $17.38 | 6.22% | 30 | |
| 2014-06-24 | 2014-07-16 | $15.50 | $14.48 | -7.62% | 16 | |
| 2014-01-22 | 2014-03-26 | $11.90 | $14.20 | 21.07% | 45 | |
| 2013-12-18 | 2014-01-14 | $9.87 | $10.75 | -7.85% | 18 | |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-10-22 | $7.85 | $11.44 | 14.89% | 79 | |
| 2013-04-17 | 2013-06-26 | $3.03 | $7.05 | 42.35% | 50 | |
| 2013-01-24 | 2013-02-22 | $2.47 | $2.41 | -2.53% | 21 | |
| 2012-11-14 | 2012-12-31 | $2.09 | $2.26 | 4.88% | 32 | |
| 2012-09-18 | 2012-09-24 | $2.09 | $2.04 | -7.93% | 5 | |
| 2012-06-19 | 2012-07-20 | $2.14 | $2.12 | 5.12% | 23 | |
| 2012-01-31 | 2012-04-10 | $1.94 | $2.16 | 4.65% | 49 |