Strategy Zoo / S0847

PriceMomentum_V0847

ARCHIVEDhybrid

structuralchanged cumret_252d threshold -0.1997 -> -0.3429; reduce exposure to 62% during MEDIUM_VOLATILITY

Fitness
0.6977
Generation
38
Complexity
22
Created
2026-09-29

Lineage

Parents (1)
PriceMomentum_V0624S0624 · gen 29ARCHIVEDstructural

entry = PriceMomentum_V0602 OR LongTermTrend_V0519

Children (1)
PriceMomentum_V0849S0849 · gen 39ARCHIVEDcrossover

Strategy Logic (pseudocode)

# PriceMomentum_V0847  [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
if flat and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.0923) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) or ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.3429) and ret_20d > 0.05)):
    position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.006:
    position = 0.0  # exit to cash
if regime.volatility == "MEDIUM_VOLATILITY": position *= 0.62

Backtest Metrics

MetricTrainValidationHidden TestFull
CAGR29.0%86.0%7.0%32.8%
Total Return661.9%543.4%28.7%6394.4%
Sharpe1.081.660.381.07
Sortino1.071.520.290.94
Calmar0.652.550.200.73
Volatility26.9%42.9%28.0%31.1%
Max DD-44.8%-33.8%-35.0%-44.8%
Win Rate45.9%50.0%47.6%47.3%
Avg Win20.3%36.4%11.3%23.4%
Avg Loss-3.9%-6.0%-6.3%-5.0%
Payoff5.266.091.804.70
Expectancy7.2%15.2%2.1%8.5%
Profit Factor4.476.091.634.22
Trades37162174
Avg Holding Days17.921.611.917.7
Turnover10.811.413.011.4
Exposure30.7%36.7%24.1%30.3%

Growth of $100

PriceMomentum_V0847 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V0847 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.

Walk-Forward Years

year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
YearCAGRSharpeMax DDTrades
201622.9%1.88-8.0%6
2017-0.3%0.09-20.4%5
2018-30.6%-1.55-30.7%7
201962.9%2.64-8.5%2
2020349.3%2.61-33.8%7
202173.3%2.27-11.5%3
2022-19.7%-1.00-27.0%6

A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.

Regime Performance

PeriodRegimeDaysAnn. ReturnSharpeExposure
hidden testDOWNTREND273-28.1%-1.3320%
hidden testEXPENSIVE8349.2%1.2550%
hidden testEXTREME48174.5%3.2163%
hidden testHIGH VOLATILITY254-18.8%-0.5034%
hidden testLOW VOLATILITY43339.9%2.0020%
hidden testMEDIUM VOLATILITY250-9.8%-0.3522%
hidden testNORMAL806-3.0%-0.1319%
hidden testSIDEWAYS2932.6%0.233%
hidden testUPTREND37145.7%1.1644%
trainDOWNTREND51816.1%1.4910%
trainEXPENSIVE31130.6%0.9557%
trainEXTREME100390.0%5.4391%
trainHIGH VOLATILITY69951.2%1.4229%
trainLOW VOLATILITY74532.9%1.5641%
trainMEDIUM VOLATILITY568-3.6%-0.1918%
trainNORMAL1,6016.1%0.3222%
trainSIDEWAYS592-5.5%-0.553%
trainUPTREND90258.9%1.5361%
validationDOWNTREND12534.6%1.849%
validationEXPENSIVE13844.8%0.9843%
validationEXTREME144283.9%3.7277%
validationHIGH VOLATILITY25882.6%1.3044%
validationLOW VOLATILITY18343.4%2.1040%
validationMEDIUM VOLATILITY31578.2%2.6929%
validationNORMAL47414.4%0.6523%
validationSIDEWAYS206-6.1%-0.773%
validationUPTREND425119.5%2.1462%

Trades (full period)

75 trades
EntryExitEntry PxExit PxReturnDays
2026-08-24—$348.95—-4.13%25OPEN
2026-05-292026-06-01$435.79$415.88-1.63%2
2026-05-052026-05-08$389.37$428.354.70%4
2025-12-152026-01-05$475.31$451.67-4.74%14
2025-11-032025-11-13$468.37$401.99-5.60%9
2025-10-242025-10-27$433.72$452.42-2.23%2
2025-09-122025-10-23$395.94$448.9816.55%30
2025-09-042025-09-05$338.53$350.841.13%2
2025-05-222025-06-06$341.04$295.14-8.36%11
2025-05-062025-05-12$275.35$318.386.21%5
2025-04-302025-05-02$282.16$287.21-4.14%3
2025-04-102025-04-22$252.40$237.97-16.60%8
2024-11-072025-01-13$296.91$403.3134.39%44
2024-10-032024-10-14$240.66$219.16-12.83%8
2024-09-052024-09-27$230.17$260.4612.24%17
2024-07-022024-08-02$231.26$207.671.62%23
2024-05-152024-05-29$173.99$176.19-0.65%10
2024-04-302024-05-10$183.28$168.47-11.56%9
2023-07-262023-08-02$264.35$254.11-1.01%6
2023-06-022023-07-24$213.97$269.0627.25%35
2023-05-232023-05-31$185.77$203.936.29%6
2023-02-092023-02-10$207.32$196.892.79%2
2022-08-162022-08-22$306.56$289.91-3.51%5
2022-08-052022-08-08$288.17$290.42-4.23%2
2022-07-142022-08-02$238.31$300.5919.12%14
2022-06-242022-06-29$245.71$228.49-1.22%4
2022-04-052022-04-21$363.75$336.26-9.34%12
2022-01-042022-01-20$383.20$332.09-18.44%12
2021-08-242021-12-01$236.16$365.0063.05%70
2021-08-052021-08-23$238.21$235.43-4.50%13
2020-11-192021-02-09$166.42$283.1543.83%55
2020-10-222020-10-29$141.93$136.94-3.95%6
2020-10-162020-10-20$146.56$140.65-2.62%3
2020-10-072020-10-14$141.77$153.777.28%6
2020-08-142020-09-24$110.05$129.269.39%29
2020-05-152020-08-10$53.28$94.5765.22%60
2020-04-142020-04-30$47.33$52.1322.74%13
2019-10-252020-03-04$21.88$49.97130.51%89
2019-09-272019-10-10$16.14$16.320.42%10
2019-06-262019-07-22$14.62$17.0516.30%18
2018-11-292018-12-19$22.74$22.20-1.04%14
2018-11-192018-11-20$23.56$23.17-0.44%2
2018-08-272018-08-28$21.28$20.79-1.30%2
2018-08-032018-08-20$23.21$20.56-12.77%12
2018-06-152018-07-05$23.88$20.61-13.27%14
2018-04-272018-05-04$19.61$19.61-0.56%6
2018-02-012018-02-06$23.28$22.26-5.03%4
2017-09-182017-09-26$25.67$23.02-7.48%7
2017-08-042017-08-22$23.79$22.76-2.71%13
2017-06-012017-07-06$22.69$20.59-4.41%25
2017-03-282017-05-24$18.50$20.685.45%41
2017-01-052017-02-28$15.12$16.679.89%37
2016-12-202016-12-28$13.92$14.658.21%6
2016-07-262016-08-17$15.30$14.88-2.98%17
2016-06-082016-06-09$15.70$15.291.17%2
2016-04-052016-05-03$17.03$15.49-1.98%21
2016-03-242016-03-28$15.18$15.351.32%2
2016-03-042016-03-21$13.40$15.8916.56%12
2015-12-032015-12-29$15.51$15.81-0.00%18
2015-11-302015-12-02$15.35$15.472.20%3
2015-08-062015-08-07$16.41$16.17-5.63%2
2015-05-112015-07-27$15.97$16.8714.64%54
2015-04-292015-05-01$15.50$15.07-2.12%3
2015-04-242015-04-28$14.56$15.375.71%3
2015-04-132015-04-14$13.99$13.83-0.73%2
2014-08-052014-09-16$15.90$17.386.22%30
2014-06-232014-07-16$15.81$14.48-4.55%17
2014-01-242014-03-26$11.64$14.2012.76%43
2013-07-012013-10-22$7.81$11.4459.25%80
2013-03-262013-06-26$2.52$7.05180.10%65
2013-01-282013-02-22$2.54$2.41-5.11%19
2012-12-182012-12-31$2.31$2.26-3.62%9
2012-11-232012-12-14$2.14$2.253.30%16
2012-02-232012-04-10$2.30$2.161.94%33
2012-02-212012-02-22$2.30$2.28-1.54%2