Strategy Zoo / S0838

PriceMomentum_V0838

ARCHIVEDhybrid

parameterchanged sma_200_slope threshold 0.0 -> -0.002

Fitness
0.7013
Generation
38
Complexity
21
Created
2026-09-29

Lineage

Parents (1)
PriceMomentum_V0624S0624 · gen 29ARCHIVEDparameter

entry = PriceMomentum_V0602 OR LongTermTrend_V0519

Children (6)
PriceMomentum_V0854S0854 · gen 39ARCHIVEDllm
PriceMomentum_V0875S0875 · gen 40ARCHIVEDllm
PriceMomentum_V0889S0889 · gen 40ARCHIVEDstructural
PriceMomentum_V0915S0915 · gen 42ARCHIVEDcrossover
PriceMomentum_V0946S0946 · gen 43ARCHIVEDllm
MACDMomentum_V0957S0957 · gen 44ARCHIVEDcrossover

Strategy Logic (pseudocode)

# PriceMomentum_V0838  [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
if flat and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > -0.002) or ret_20d > 0.0923) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) or ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.05)):
    position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.006:
    position = 0.0  # exit to cash

Backtest Metrics

MetricTrainValidationHidden TestFull
CAGR26.0%106.4%7.5%34.2%
Total Return534.4%779.9%31.1%7432.1%
Sharpe0.941.750.391.03
Sortino0.891.710.300.91
Calmar0.513.020.190.67
Volatility28.8%47.8%30.6%34.0%
Max DD-51.1%-35.2%-40.7%-51.1%
Win Rate42.1%47.1%45.0%44.0%
Avg Win21.0%45.6%13.8%27.3%
Avg Loss-4.1%-7.1%-7.1%-5.5%
Payoff5.156.421.944.94
Expectancy6.5%17.7%2.3%8.9%
Profit Factor3.745.711.583.88
Trades38172075
Avg Holding Days17.320.512.417.4
Turnover9.611.311.010.3
Exposure33.1%43.9%27.0%33.8%

Growth of $100

PriceMomentum_V0838 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V0838 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.

Walk-Forward Years

year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
YearCAGRSharpeMax DDTrades
201625.6%1.74-10.7%6
20172.4%0.22-25.0%5
2018-32.8%-1.62-32.7%7
201940.4%1.94-8.5%3
2020537.8%2.97-33.7%7
202182.4%2.00-17.6%3
2022-27.6%-1.19-30.4%7

A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.

Regime Performance

PeriodRegimeDaysAnn. ReturnSharpeExposure
hidden testDOWNTREND273-24.1%-1.1221%
hidden testEXPENSIVE8353.2%1.2061%
hidden testEXTREME48183.9%3.2767%
hidden testHIGH VOLATILITY254-31.7%-0.7834%
hidden testLOW VOLATILITY43343.1%2.1221%
hidden testMEDIUM VOLATILITY2502.5%0.0831%
hidden testNORMAL806-2.5%-0.0921%
hidden testSIDEWAYS293-4.9%-0.333%
hidden testUPTREND37151.9%1.2150%
trainDOWNTREND5189.1%0.909%
trainEXPENSIVE31139.3%1.0365%
trainEXTREME100403.3%5.4797%
trainHIGH VOLATILITY69949.4%1.2930%
trainLOW VOLATILITY74529.3%1.4141%
trainMEDIUM VOLATILITY568-2.9%-0.1226%
trainNORMAL1,6011.3%0.0723%
trainSIDEWAYS592-5.8%-0.573%
trainUPTREND90259.2%1.4366%
validationDOWNTREND12545.2%2.0812%
validationEXPENSIVE13867.5%1.2560%
validationEXTREME144344.5%4.2685%
validationHIGH VOLATILITY25893.8%1.4245%
validationLOW VOLATILITY18332.7%1.5142%
validationMEDIUM VOLATILITY315105.7%2.6044%
validationNORMAL4749.6%0.3627%
validationSIDEWAYS206-14.3%-1.333%
validationUPTREND425143.0%2.3173%

Trades (full period)

76 trades
EntryExitEntry PxExit PxReturnDays
2026-08-24—$348.95—-1.59%25OPEN
2026-05-292026-06-01$435.79$415.88-1.63%2
2026-05-052026-05-08$389.37$428.354.70%4
2025-12-152026-01-05$475.31$451.67-4.74%14
2025-11-032025-11-13$468.37$401.99-5.87%9
2025-10-242025-10-27$433.72$452.42-3.60%2
2025-09-122025-10-23$395.94$448.9818.79%30
2025-09-042025-09-05$338.53$350.841.13%2
2025-05-222025-06-06$341.04$295.14-15.09%11
2025-05-062025-05-12$275.35$318.386.21%5
2025-04-302025-05-02$282.16$287.21-4.14%3
2025-04-102025-04-22$252.40$237.97-16.60%8
2024-11-072025-01-13$296.91$403.3136.54%44
2024-10-032024-10-14$240.66$219.16-12.71%8
2024-09-042024-09-27$219.41$260.4620.48%18
2024-07-022024-08-02$231.26$207.673.14%23
2024-05-152024-05-29$173.99$176.19-0.65%10
2024-04-302024-05-10$183.28$168.47-11.56%9
2023-07-262023-08-02$264.35$254.11-1.78%6
2023-06-022023-07-24$213.97$269.0625.05%35
2023-05-242023-05-31$182.90$203.938.07%5
2022-09-212022-09-23$300.80$275.33-6.71%3
2022-08-162022-08-22$306.56$289.91-4.28%5
2022-08-052022-08-08$288.17$290.42-6.82%2
2022-07-142022-08-02$238.31$300.5925.16%14
2022-06-242022-06-29$245.71$228.49-1.22%4
2022-04-052022-04-21$363.75$336.26-14.86%12
2022-01-042022-01-20$383.20$332.09-17.18%12
2021-08-242021-12-01$236.16$365.0061.75%70
2021-08-052021-08-23$238.21$235.43-4.50%13
2020-11-192021-02-09$166.42$283.1577.07%55
2020-10-222020-10-29$141.93$136.94-4.12%6
2020-10-162020-10-20$146.56$140.65-4.21%3
2020-10-072020-10-14$141.77$153.777.68%6
2020-08-142020-09-24$110.05$129.2617.09%29
2020-05-152020-08-10$53.28$94.5780.47%60
2020-04-142020-04-30$47.33$52.1322.74%13
2019-10-252020-03-04$21.88$49.97148.29%89
2019-10-212019-10-22$16.90$17.04-1.54%2
2019-09-272019-10-10$16.14$16.320.61%10
2019-07-162019-07-22$16.83$17.051.64%5
2018-11-292018-12-19$22.74$22.20-3.31%14
2018-11-192018-11-20$23.56$23.17-0.44%2
2018-08-222018-08-28$21.44$20.79-1.02%5
2018-08-032018-08-20$23.21$20.56-12.77%12
2018-06-152018-07-05$23.88$20.61-13.27%14
2018-04-272018-05-04$19.61$19.61-0.56%6
2018-02-012018-02-06$23.28$22.26-6.17%4
2017-09-182017-09-26$25.67$23.02-9.35%7
2017-08-042017-08-22$23.79$22.76-2.85%13
2017-06-012017-07-06$22.69$20.59-4.27%25
2017-03-282017-05-24$18.50$20.6812.23%41
2017-01-052017-02-28$15.12$16.678.26%37
2016-12-202016-12-28$13.92$14.658.07%6
2016-07-262016-08-17$15.30$14.88-2.98%17
2016-06-082016-06-09$15.70$15.291.17%2
2016-04-052016-05-03$17.03$15.49-2.29%21
2016-03-242016-03-28$15.18$15.352.12%2
2016-03-042016-03-21$13.40$15.8918.67%12
2015-12-032015-12-29$15.51$15.81-1.51%18
2015-11-302015-12-02$15.35$15.472.20%3
2015-08-062015-08-07$16.41$16.17-9.08%2
2015-05-112015-07-27$15.97$16.8711.95%54
2015-04-292015-05-01$15.50$15.07-2.12%3
2015-04-242015-04-28$14.56$15.375.71%3
2015-04-132015-04-14$13.99$13.83-0.73%2
2014-08-052014-09-16$15.90$17.386.22%30
2014-06-232014-07-16$15.81$14.48-4.55%17
2014-01-242014-03-26$11.64$14.2021.21%43
2013-07-012013-10-22$7.81$11.4460.46%80
2013-03-262013-06-26$2.52$7.05172.31%65
2013-01-242013-02-22$2.47$2.41-2.53%21
2012-12-182012-12-31$2.31$2.26-3.62%9
2012-11-232012-12-14$2.14$2.253.30%16
2012-02-232012-04-10$2.30$2.16-3.32%33
2012-02-212012-02-22$2.30$2.28-1.54%2