Strategy Zoo / S0793

PriceMomentum_V0793

ARCHIVEDhybrid

structuraladded entry filter: vol_chg < 1.2824; swapped indicator ret_20d -> ret_60d

Fitness
0.4726
Generation
36
Complexity
23
Created
2026-09-26

Lineage

Parents (1)
PriceMomentum_V0624S0624 · gen 29ARCHIVEDstructural

entry = PriceMomentum_V0602 OR LongTermTrend_V0519

Children (0)
None

Strategy Logic (pseudocode)

# PriceMomentum_V0793  [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
if flat and (((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.0923) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) or ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.05)) and vol_chg < 1.2824):
    position = 1.0
if long and ret_60d < -0.0619:
    position = 0.0  # exit to cash

Backtest Metrics

MetricTrainValidationHidden TestFull
CAGR23.2%46.6%2.5%22.1%
Total Return430.4%215.2%9.5%1784.2%
Sharpe0.810.970.240.71
Sortino0.810.980.220.67
Calmar0.460.770.050.36
Volatility31.8%55.2%34.0%38.3%
Max DD-50.6%-60.7%-49.0%-60.7%
Win Rate48.6%44.4%37.9%45.1%
Avg Win25.5%30.8%9.0%21.4%
Avg Loss-5.5%-5.7%-4.4%-4.9%
Payoff4.605.362.044.37
Expectancy9.5%10.5%0.7%7.0%
Profit Factor4.354.291.253.59
Trades35182982
Avg Holding Days25.023.312.220.6
Turnover8.912.015.911.2
Exposure43.8%53.0%34.9%43.5%

Growth of $100

PriceMomentum_V0793 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V0793 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.

Walk-Forward Years

year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
YearCAGRSharpeMax DDTrades
2016-2.0%-0.05-20.6%9
201737.7%1.19-19.5%2
2018-38.7%-2.26-39.7%8
201933.3%2.10-8.5%2
2020269.4%2.02-60.7%4
202116.7%0.58-36.7%2
2022-38.3%-2.01-38.2%12

A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.

Regime Performance

PeriodRegimeDaysAnn. ReturnSharpeExposure
hidden testDOWNTREND272-27.1%-1.5110%
hidden testEXPENSIVE8325.5%0.5082%
hidden testEXTREME48185.0%2.93100%
hidden testHIGH VOLATILITY254-28.3%-0.6540%
hidden testLOW VOLATILITY43234.0%1.4328%
hidden testMEDIUM VOLATILITY2500.9%0.0241%
hidden testNORMAL805-4.0%-0.1426%
hidden testSIDEWAYS293-15.6%-0.993%
hidden testUPTREND37153.0%1.0678%
trainDOWNTREND5187.1%1.303%
trainEXPENSIVE31151.3%1.1284%
trainEXTREME100416.1%5.63100%
trainHIGH VOLATILITY69941.6%1.0534%
trainLOW VOLATILITY74528.5%1.2053%
trainMEDIUM VOLATILITY5683.1%0.1043%
trainNORMAL1,601-3.4%-0.1532%
trainSIDEWAYS592-9.0%-0.694%
trainUPTREND90259.6%1.2993%
validationDOWNTREND1259.6%1.055%
validationEXPENSIVE138-12.3%-0.1884%
validationEXTREME144353.5%4.1391%
validationHIGH VOLATILITY25871.2%0.9353%
validationLOW VOLATILITY18333.8%1.3450%
validationMEDIUM VOLATILITY31550.7%1.0955%
validationNORMAL474-18.3%-0.5232%
validationSIDEWAYS206-45.7%-1.884%
validationUPTREND425114.7%1.6191%

Trades (full period)

83 trades
EntryExitEntry PxExit PxReturnDays
2026-09-25———-0.10%1OPEN
2026-09-112026-09-14$365.44$358.970.32%2
2026-09-092026-09-10$367.81$363.56-0.29%2
2026-09-032026-09-08$376.37$368.16-1.01%3
2026-09-012026-09-02$356.09$357.01-3.42%2
2026-08-282026-08-31$348.75$367.95-1.91%2
2026-08-262026-08-27$345.82$354.81-1.46%2
2026-08-242026-08-25$348.95$350.25-4.03%2
2026-05-292026-06-01$435.79$415.88-1.63%2
2026-05-052026-05-08$389.37$428.354.70%4
2025-09-122026-01-13$395.94$447.2021.50%85
2025-09-042025-09-05$338.53$350.841.13%2
2025-05-222025-06-06$341.04$295.14-15.09%11
2025-05-082025-05-09$284.82$298.262.91%2
2025-05-062025-05-07$275.35$276.22-1.95%2
2025-04-302025-05-01$282.16$280.52-3.58%2
2025-04-162025-04-17$241.55$241.37-5.14%2
2025-04-102025-04-11$252.40$252.31-7.47%2
2024-11-082025-02-24$321.22$330.5313.55%71
2024-10-072024-10-14$240.83$219.16-13.09%6
2024-10-032024-10-04$240.66$250.08-3.55%2
2024-07-022024-09-27$231.26$260.4620.91%62
2024-05-232024-05-24$173.74$179.24-3.73%2
2024-05-212024-05-22$186.60$180.116.45%2
2024-05-172024-05-20$177.46$174.951.30%2
2024-05-152024-05-16$173.99$174.84-2.20%2
2024-04-302024-05-08$183.28$174.72-8.56%7
2023-06-022023-09-05$213.97$256.4917.83%65
2023-05-262023-05-31$193.17$203.938.83%3
2023-05-242023-05-25$182.90$184.47-1.74%2
2022-08-162022-08-22$306.56$289.91-4.28%5
2022-08-052022-08-08$288.17$290.42-6.82%2
2022-08-012022-08-02$297.28$300.59-0.16%2
2022-07-282022-07-29$280.90$297.152.01%2
2022-07-262022-07-27$258.86$274.82-3.76%2
2022-07-222022-07-25$272.24$268.43-0.00%2
2022-07-192022-07-20$245.53$247.501.87%2
2022-07-142022-07-15$238.31$240.070.34%2
2022-06-242022-06-27$245.71$244.924.32%2
2022-04-122022-04-27$328.98$293.84-10.37%11
2022-04-052022-04-11$363.75$325.31-10.66%5
2021-08-242022-01-20$236.16$332.0940.69%104
2021-08-052021-08-23$238.21$235.43-4.50%13
2020-11-232021-03-08$173.95$187.6721.89%71
2020-05-192020-11-13$53.87$136.17152.53%126
2020-05-152020-05-18$53.28$54.24-0.72%2
2020-04-142020-04-30$47.33$52.1322.74%13
2019-10-312020-03-19$20.99$28.5114.44%96
2019-07-182019-07-22$16.90$17.051.10%3
2019-07-162019-07-17$16.83$16.99-0.64%2
2018-11-292018-12-26$22.74$21.74-15.26%18
2018-11-192018-11-20$23.56$23.17-0.44%2
2018-08-272018-08-28$21.28$20.79-1.30%2
2018-08-102018-08-20$23.70$20.56-13.49%7
2018-06-152018-07-05$23.88$20.61-13.27%14
2018-05-012018-05-02$19.99$20.081.85%2
2018-04-272018-04-30$19.61$19.592.81%2
2018-02-012018-02-06$23.28$22.26-6.17%4
2017-09-182017-10-25$25.67$21.72-11.36%28
2017-01-052017-08-24$15.12$23.5355.10%161
2016-12-202016-12-28$13.92$14.658.07%6
2016-07-262016-08-30$15.30$14.09-6.63%26
2016-06-082016-06-09$15.70$15.291.17%2
2016-04-082016-06-02$16.67$14.60-14.81%39
2016-03-242016-03-28$15.18$15.352.12%2
2016-03-172016-03-21$15.09$15.894.66%3
2016-03-102016-03-16$13.68$14.804.40%5
2016-03-082016-03-09$13.51$13.91-1.51%2
2016-03-042016-03-07$13.40$13.692.51%2
2015-12-172015-12-18$15.56$15.36-0.68%2
2015-12-032015-12-04$15.51$15.360.11%2
2015-11-302015-12-01$15.35$15.81-0.78%2
2015-05-112015-08-18$15.97$17.387.55%70
2015-04-292015-05-01$15.50$15.07-2.12%3
2015-04-272015-04-28$15.44$15.375.80%2
2015-04-132015-04-14$13.99$13.83-0.73%2
2014-06-232014-10-22$15.81$15.412.30%86
2014-01-242014-05-08$11.64$11.9110.71%73
2012-12-182013-11-12$2.31$9.19319.80%228
2012-11-232012-12-14$2.14$2.253.30%16
2012-02-232012-05-04$2.30$2.12-5.33%51
2012-02-212012-02-22$2.30$2.28-1.54%2
2012-01-042012-01-06$1.85$1.79-3.61%3