Strategy Zoo / S0793
PriceMomentum_V0793
ARCHIVEDhybridstructuraladded entry filter: vol_chg < 1.2824; swapped indicator ret_20d -> ret_60d
Fitness
0.4726
Generation
36
Complexity
23
Created
2026-09-26
Lineage
Parents (1)
entry = PriceMomentum_V0602 OR LongTermTrend_V0519
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# PriceMomentum_V0793 [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
if flat and (((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.0923) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) or ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.1) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.05)) and vol_chg < 1.2824):
position = 1.0
if long and ret_60d < -0.0619:
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 23.2% | 46.6% | 2.5% | 22.1% |
| Total Return | 430.4% | 215.2% | 9.5% | 1784.2% |
| Sharpe | 0.81 | 0.97 | 0.24 | 0.71 |
| Sortino | 0.81 | 0.98 | 0.22 | 0.67 |
| Calmar | 0.46 | 0.77 | 0.05 | 0.36 |
| Volatility | 31.8% | 55.2% | 34.0% | 38.3% |
| Max DD | -50.6% | -60.7% | -49.0% | -60.7% |
| Win Rate | 48.6% | 44.4% | 37.9% | 45.1% |
| Avg Win | 25.5% | 30.8% | 9.0% | 21.4% |
| Avg Loss | -5.5% | -5.7% | -4.4% | -4.9% |
| Payoff | 4.60 | 5.36 | 2.04 | 4.37 |
| Expectancy | 9.5% | 10.5% | 0.7% | 7.0% |
| Profit Factor | 4.35 | 4.29 | 1.25 | 3.59 |
| Trades | 35 | 18 | 29 | 82 |
| Avg Holding Days | 25.0 | 23.3 | 12.2 | 20.6 |
| Turnover | 8.9 | 12.0 | 15.9 | 11.2 |
| Exposure | 43.8% | 53.0% | 34.9% | 43.5% |
Growth of $100
PriceMomentum_V0793 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V0793 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -2.0% | -0.05 | -20.6% | 9 |
| 2017 | 37.7% | 1.19 | -19.5% | 2 |
| 2018 | -38.7% | -2.26 | -39.7% | 8 |
| 2019 | 33.3% | 2.10 | -8.5% | 2 |
| 2020 | 269.4% | 2.02 | -60.7% | 4 |
| 2021 | 16.7% | 0.58 | -36.7% | 2 |
| 2022 | -38.3% | -2.01 | -38.2% | 12 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 272 | -27.1% | -1.51 | 10% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 25.5% | 0.50 | 82% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 185.0% | 2.93 | 100% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | -28.3% | -0.65 | 40% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 432 | 34.0% | 1.43 | 28% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | 0.9% | 0.02 | 41% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 805 | -4.0% | -0.14 | 26% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | -15.6% | -0.99 | 3% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 53.0% | 1.06 | 78% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | 7.1% | 1.30 | 3% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 51.3% | 1.12 | 84% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 416.1% | 5.63 | 100% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 41.6% | 1.05 | 34% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 28.5% | 1.20 | 53% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | 3.1% | 0.10 | 43% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -3.4% | -0.15 | 32% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -9.0% | -0.69 | 4% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 59.6% | 1.29 | 93% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 9.6% | 1.05 | 5% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | -12.3% | -0.18 | 84% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 353.5% | 4.13 | 91% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 71.2% | 0.93 | 53% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 33.8% | 1.34 | 50% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 50.7% | 1.09 | 55% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | -18.3% | -0.52 | 32% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -45.7% | -1.88 | 4% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 114.7% | 1.61 | 91% |
Trades (full period)
83 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | — | — | — | -0.10% | 1 | OPEN |
| 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-14 | $365.44 | $358.97 | 0.32% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-09 | 2026-09-10 | $367.81 | $363.56 | -0.29% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-03 | 2026-09-08 | $376.37 | $368.16 | -1.01% | 3 | |
| 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-02 | $356.09 | $357.01 | -3.42% | 2 | |
| 2026-08-28 | 2026-08-31 | $348.75 | $367.95 | -1.91% | 2 | |
| 2026-08-26 | 2026-08-27 | $345.82 | $354.81 | -1.46% | 2 | |
| 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-25 | $348.95 | $350.25 | -4.03% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-01 | $435.79 | $415.88 | -1.63% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-05 | 2026-05-08 | $389.37 | $428.35 | 4.70% | 4 | |
| 2025-09-12 | 2026-01-13 | $395.94 | $447.20 | 21.50% | 85 | |
| 2025-09-04 | 2025-09-05 | $338.53 | $350.84 | 1.13% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-22 | 2025-06-06 | $341.04 | $295.14 | -15.09% | 11 | |
| 2025-05-08 | 2025-05-09 | $284.82 | $298.26 | 2.91% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-06 | 2025-05-07 | $275.35 | $276.22 | -1.95% | 2 | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-01 | $282.16 | $280.52 | -3.58% | 2 | |
| 2025-04-16 | 2025-04-17 | $241.55 | $241.37 | -5.14% | 2 | |
| 2025-04-10 | 2025-04-11 | $252.40 | $252.31 | -7.47% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-08 | 2025-02-24 | $321.22 | $330.53 | 13.55% | 71 | |
| 2024-10-07 | 2024-10-14 | $240.83 | $219.16 | -13.09% | 6 | |
| 2024-10-03 | 2024-10-04 | $240.66 | $250.08 | -3.55% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-02 | 2024-09-27 | $231.26 | $260.46 | 20.91% | 62 | |
| 2024-05-23 | 2024-05-24 | $173.74 | $179.24 | -3.73% | 2 | |
| 2024-05-21 | 2024-05-22 | $186.60 | $180.11 | 6.45% | 2 | |
| 2024-05-17 | 2024-05-20 | $177.46 | $174.95 | 1.30% | 2 | |
| 2024-05-15 | 2024-05-16 | $173.99 | $174.84 | -2.20% | 2 | |
| 2024-04-30 | 2024-05-08 | $183.28 | $174.72 | -8.56% | 7 | |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-09-05 | $213.97 | $256.49 | 17.83% | 65 | |
| 2023-05-26 | 2023-05-31 | $193.17 | $203.93 | 8.83% | 3 | |
| 2023-05-24 | 2023-05-25 | $182.90 | $184.47 | -1.74% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-16 | 2022-08-22 | $306.56 | $289.91 | -4.28% | 5 | |
| 2022-08-05 | 2022-08-08 | $288.17 | $290.42 | -6.82% | 2 | |
| 2022-08-01 | 2022-08-02 | $297.28 | $300.59 | -0.16% | 2 | |
| 2022-07-28 | 2022-07-29 | $280.90 | $297.15 | 2.01% | 2 | |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-07-27 | $258.86 | $274.82 | -3.76% | 2 | |
| 2022-07-22 | 2022-07-25 | $272.24 | $268.43 | -0.00% | 2 | |
| 2022-07-19 | 2022-07-20 | $245.53 | $247.50 | 1.87% | 2 | |
| 2022-07-14 | 2022-07-15 | $238.31 | $240.07 | 0.34% | 2 | |
| 2022-06-24 | 2022-06-27 | $245.71 | $244.92 | 4.32% | 2 | |
| 2022-04-12 | 2022-04-27 | $328.98 | $293.84 | -10.37% | 11 | |
| 2022-04-05 | 2022-04-11 | $363.75 | $325.31 | -10.66% | 5 | |
| 2021-08-24 | 2022-01-20 | $236.16 | $332.09 | 40.69% | 104 | |
| 2021-08-05 | 2021-08-23 | $238.21 | $235.43 | -4.50% | 13 | |
| 2020-11-23 | 2021-03-08 | $173.95 | $187.67 | 21.89% | 71 | |
| 2020-05-19 | 2020-11-13 | $53.87 | $136.17 | 152.53% | 126 | |
| 2020-05-15 | 2020-05-18 | $53.28 | $54.24 | -0.72% | 2 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-04-30 | $47.33 | $52.13 | 22.74% | 13 | |
| 2019-10-31 | 2020-03-19 | $20.99 | $28.51 | 14.44% | 96 | |
| 2019-07-18 | 2019-07-22 | $16.90 | $17.05 | 1.10% | 3 | |
| 2019-07-16 | 2019-07-17 | $16.83 | $16.99 | -0.64% | 2 | |
| 2018-11-29 | 2018-12-26 | $22.74 | $21.74 | -15.26% | 18 | |
| 2018-11-19 | 2018-11-20 | $23.56 | $23.17 | -0.44% | 2 | |
| 2018-08-27 | 2018-08-28 | $21.28 | $20.79 | -1.30% | 2 | |
| 2018-08-10 | 2018-08-20 | $23.70 | $20.56 | -13.49% | 7 | |
| 2018-06-15 | 2018-07-05 | $23.88 | $20.61 | -13.27% | 14 | |
| 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-02 | $19.99 | $20.08 | 1.85% | 2 | |
| 2018-04-27 | 2018-04-30 | $19.61 | $19.59 | 2.81% | 2 | |
| 2018-02-01 | 2018-02-06 | $23.28 | $22.26 | -6.17% | 4 | |
| 2017-09-18 | 2017-10-25 | $25.67 | $21.72 | -11.36% | 28 | |
| 2017-01-05 | 2017-08-24 | $15.12 | $23.53 | 55.10% | 161 | |
| 2016-12-20 | 2016-12-28 | $13.92 | $14.65 | 8.07% | 6 | |
| 2016-07-26 | 2016-08-30 | $15.30 | $14.09 | -6.63% | 26 | |
| 2016-06-08 | 2016-06-09 | $15.70 | $15.29 | 1.17% | 2 | |
| 2016-04-08 | 2016-06-02 | $16.67 | $14.60 | -14.81% | 39 | |
| 2016-03-24 | 2016-03-28 | $15.18 | $15.35 | 2.12% | 2 | |
| 2016-03-17 | 2016-03-21 | $15.09 | $15.89 | 4.66% | 3 | |
| 2016-03-10 | 2016-03-16 | $13.68 | $14.80 | 4.40% | 5 | |
| 2016-03-08 | 2016-03-09 | $13.51 | $13.91 | -1.51% | 2 | |
| 2016-03-04 | 2016-03-07 | $13.40 | $13.69 | 2.51% | 2 | |
| 2015-12-17 | 2015-12-18 | $15.56 | $15.36 | -0.68% | 2 | |
| 2015-12-03 | 2015-12-04 | $15.51 | $15.36 | 0.11% | 2 | |
| 2015-11-30 | 2015-12-01 | $15.35 | $15.81 | -0.78% | 2 | |
| 2015-05-11 | 2015-08-18 | $15.97 | $17.38 | 7.55% | 70 | |
| 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-01 | $15.50 | $15.07 | -2.12% | 3 | |
| 2015-04-27 | 2015-04-28 | $15.44 | $15.37 | 5.80% | 2 | |
| 2015-04-13 | 2015-04-14 | $13.99 | $13.83 | -0.73% | 2 | |
| 2014-06-23 | 2014-10-22 | $15.81 | $15.41 | 2.30% | 86 | |
| 2014-01-24 | 2014-05-08 | $11.64 | $11.91 | 10.71% | 73 | |
| 2012-12-18 | 2013-11-12 | $2.31 | $9.19 | 319.80% | 228 | |
| 2012-11-23 | 2012-12-14 | $2.14 | $2.25 | 3.30% | 16 | |
| 2012-02-23 | 2012-05-04 | $2.30 | $2.12 | -5.33% | 51 | |
| 2012-02-21 | 2012-02-22 | $2.30 | $2.28 | -1.54% | 2 | |
| 2012-01-04 | 2012-01-06 | $1.85 | $1.79 | -3.61% | 3 |