Strategy Zoo / S0714
PriceMomentum_V0714
ARCHIVEDhybridcrossoverentry from PriceMomentum_V0564, exit from PriceMomentum_V0570
Fitness
0.6140
Generation
33
Complexity
15
Created
2026-09-25
Lineage
Parents (2)
entry from PriceMomentum_V0557, exit from PriceMomentum_V0361
restricted to bubble regimes ['EXPENSIVE', 'EXTREME']
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# PriceMomentum_V0714 [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
if flat and (ret_20d > 0.1146 and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > 0.0) or ret_20d > 0.05) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997) and ret_20d > 0.05)):
position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.03:
position = 0.0 # exit to cash
if regime.volatility == "MEDIUM_VOLATILITY": position *= 0.55Backtest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 23.4% | 67.7% | 12.1% | 28.5% |
| Total Return | 435.0% | 371.4% | 52.7% | 3865.6% |
| Sharpe | 0.95 | 1.45 | 0.56 | 0.99 |
| Sortino | 0.88 | 1.24 | 0.41 | 0.82 |
| Calmar | 0.59 | 2.00 | 0.38 | 0.72 |
| Volatility | 25.4% | 41.6% | 27.0% | 29.8% |
| Max DD | -39.6% | -33.8% | -32.1% | -39.6% |
| Win Rate | 51.9% | 53.8% | 57.1% | 53.7% |
| Avg Win | 19.1% | 35.3% | 11.4% | 23.3% |
| Avg Loss | -4.9% | -7.5% | -6.5% | -5.9% |
| Payoff | 3.88 | 4.70 | 1.77 | 3.94 |
| Expectancy | 7.5% | 15.5% | 3.8% | 9.8% |
| Profit Factor | 4.18 | 5.48 | 2.36 | 4.57 |
| Trades | 27 | 13 | 14 | 54 |
| Avg Holding Days | 21.9 | 23.8 | 17.1 | 22.0 |
| Turnover | 8.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 9.1 |
| Exposure | 27.7% | 31.0% | 22.6% | 27.1% |
Growth of $100
PriceMomentum_V0714 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V0714 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 12.6% | 1.10 | -12.8% | 5 |
| 2017 | 3.7% | 0.28 | -18.1% | 4 |
| 2018 | -27.3% | -1.43 | -28.9% | 4 |
| 2019 | 46.2% | 2.23 | -8.5% | 2 |
| 2020 | 285.9% | 2.42 | -33.8% | 5 |
| 2021 | 57.4% | 2.06 | -10.5% | 2 |
| 2022 | -24.4% | -1.26 | -30.5% | 6 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 271 | -3.4% | -0.19 | 15% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 39.6% | 1.06 | 51% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 184.1% | 3.40 | 64% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | 1.0% | 0.03 | 29% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 431 | 36.4% | 1.87 | 19% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | -7.3% | -0.26 | 22% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 804 | 2.5% | 0.11 | 17% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | 0.1% | 0.01 | 2% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 40.4% | 1.04 | 44% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | 6.7% | 0.97 | 5% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 29.0% | 0.95 | 53% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 374.9% | 5.24 | 89% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 45.8% | 1.33 | 29% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 26.0% | 1.27 | 38% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -4.9% | -0.29 | 13% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | 1.3% | 0.08 | 19% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -3.8% | -0.39 | 2% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 52.5% | 1.43 | 58% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 31.0% | 1.69 | 7% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 37.2% | 0.83 | 38% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 248.8% | 3.34 | 73% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 67.3% | 1.08 | 42% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 37.2% | 2.09 | 23% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 68.1% | 2.43 | 26% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 9.8% | 0.47 | 16% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -15.0% | -1.42 | 2% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 105.5% | 1.96 | 52% |
Trades (full period)
55 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | — | $348.95 | — | 1.46% | 23 | OPEN |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-01 | $435.79 | $415.88 | -1.63% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-08 | $398.73 | $428.35 | 5.55% | 3 | |
| 2025-12-15 | 2026-01-07 | $475.31 | $431.41 | -5.85% | 16 | |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-11-14 | $410.04 | $404.35 | 0.77% | 45 | |
| 2025-05-22 | 2025-06-06 | $341.04 | $295.14 | -7.10% | 11 | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-12 | $282.16 | $318.38 | 1.93% | 9 | |
| 2025-04-16 | 2025-04-22 | $241.55 | $237.97 | -10.66% | 4 | |
| 2024-11-07 | 2025-01-14 | $296.91 | $396.36 | 36.89% | 45 | |
| 2024-10-03 | 2024-10-14 | $240.66 | $219.16 | -12.85% | 8 | |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-27 | $210.73 | $260.46 | 8.66% | 16 | |
| 2024-07-02 | 2024-08-02 | $231.26 | $207.67 | 1.32% | 23 | |
| 2024-05-15 | 2024-05-29 | $173.99 | $176.19 | -0.65% | 10 | |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-08-02 | $213.97 | $254.11 | 28.11% | 42 | |
| 2023-05-24 | 2023-05-31 | $182.90 | $203.93 | 8.07% | 5 | |
| 2022-08-16 | 2022-08-22 | $306.56 | $289.91 | -3.37% | 5 | |
| 2022-08-05 | 2022-08-08 | $288.17 | $290.42 | -3.75% | 2 | |
| 2022-07-19 | 2022-08-02 | $245.53 | $300.59 | 17.07% | 11 | |
| 2022-06-24 | 2022-06-29 | $245.71 | $228.49 | -1.22% | 4 | |
| 2022-04-05 | 2022-04-27 | $363.75 | $293.84 | -13.45% | 16 | |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-01-20 | $383.20 | $332.09 | -18.67% | 12 | |
| 2021-09-16 | 2021-12-01 | $252.33 | $365.00 | 52.51% | 54 | |
| 2020-11-19 | 2021-02-11 | $166.42 | $270.55 | 29.70% | 57 | |
| 2020-10-07 | 2020-10-20 | $141.77 | $140.65 | 5.14% | 10 | |
| 2020-08-18 | 2020-09-24 | $125.81 | $129.26 | -4.63% | 27 | |
| 2020-05-20 | 2020-08-10 | $54.37 | $94.57 | 61.54% | 57 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-04-30 | $47.33 | $52.13 | 22.74% | 13 | |
| 2019-10-25 | 2020-03-04 | $21.88 | $49.97 | 127.30% | 89 | |
| 2019-09-27 | 2019-10-15 | $16.14 | $17.19 | 3.17% | 13 | |
| 2019-07-16 | 2019-07-22 | $16.83 | $17.05 | 1.64% | 5 | |
| 2018-11-19 | 2018-11-20 | $23.56 | $23.17 | -0.44% | 2 | |
| 2018-08-03 | 2018-08-20 | $23.21 | $20.56 | -12.77% | 12 | |
| 2018-06-15 | 2018-07-05 | $23.88 | $20.61 | -13.27% | 14 | |
| 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-04 | $19.99 | $19.61 | -3.41% | 4 | |
| 2017-08-04 | 2017-08-24 | $23.79 | $23.53 | -0.33% | 15 | |
| 2017-06-05 | 2017-07-06 | $23.15 | $20.59 | -4.04% | 23 | |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-24 | $20.25 | $20.68 | -2.47% | 36 | |
| 2017-01-05 | 2017-03-08 | $15.12 | $16.46 | 11.15% | 43 | |
| 2016-12-21 | 2016-12-28 | $13.85 | $14.65 | 5.18% | 5 | |
| 2016-07-26 | 2016-08-23 | $15.30 | $14.99 | -3.27% | 21 | |
| 2016-04-05 | 2016-05-04 | $17.03 | $14.84 | -5.86% | 22 | |
| 2016-03-24 | 2016-03-28 | $15.18 | $15.35 | 1.17% | 2 | |
| 2016-03-04 | 2016-03-21 | $13.40 | $15.89 | 16.17% | 12 | |
| 2015-05-11 | 2015-07-28 | $15.97 | $17.65 | 12.18% | 55 | |
| 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-01 | $15.50 | $15.07 | -2.12% | 3 | |
| 2015-04-24 | 2015-04-28 | $14.56 | $15.37 | 5.71% | 3 | |
| 2014-08-07 | 2014-09-16 | $16.83 | $17.38 | 1.78% | 28 | |
| 2014-06-23 | 2014-07-17 | $15.81 | $14.36 | -5.60% | 18 | |
| 2014-01-24 | 2014-03-26 | $11.64 | $14.20 | 11.22% | 43 | |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-10-22 | $7.85 | $11.44 | 51.30% | 79 | |
| 2013-04-02 | 2013-06-26 | $2.96 | $7.05 | 140.52% | 61 | |
| 2013-01-29 | 2013-02-26 | $2.53 | $2.30 | -8.83% | 20 | |
| 2012-11-23 | 2012-12-14 | $2.14 | $2.25 | 3.30% | 16 | |
| 2012-02-23 | 2012-04-10 | $2.30 | $2.16 | 2.93% | 33 | |
| 2012-02-21 | 2012-02-22 | $2.30 | $2.28 | -1.54% | 2 |