Strategy Zoo / S0674
LongTermTrend_V0674
ARCHIVEDhybridllmSimplified and consolidated entry to two robust branches (trend-follow and breakout), tightened persistence filters (cumret_252d, macd_hist floor) to reduce overfitting; added multi-condition exit (macd_hist<0 OR close < sma_50 OR drawdown>12%) to cut losses earlier; introduced regime gates to avoid downtrend/high-volatility/bubble regimes; added volatility-based position scaling (reduce size when vol_pctile>0.6/0.8) and lowered base position to 0.8 to reduce turnover and drawdown risk.
Fitness
0.1565
Generation
31
Complexity
20
Created
2026-09-24
Lineage
Parents (1)
added entry filter: sma_20 < close; added entry filter: macd_hist > -2.6055
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# LongTermTrend_V0674 [hybrid]
require regime.trend in ['UPTREND', 'SIDEWAYS']
require regime.volatility in ['LOW_VOLATILITY', 'MEDIUM_VOLATILITY']
require regime.bubble in ['NORMAL']
if flat and (((close > sma_50 and sma_50 > sma_200 and macd_hist > 0.0) or (breakout_20 == 1 and rel_volume > 1.2 and ret_5d > 0.01)) and sma_20 < close and cumret_252d > -0.15 and macd_hist > -1.0):
position = 0.8
if long and (macd_hist < 0.0 or close < sma_50 or drawdown > 0.12):
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | -1.1% | 5.1% | -5.1% | -0.9% |
| Total Return | -8.6% | 16.2% | -17.5% | -12.4% |
| Sharpe | -0.02 | 0.42 | -0.34 | -0.00 |
| Sortino | -0.01 | 0.22 | -0.17 | -0.00 |
| Calmar | -0.03 | 0.32 | -0.15 | -0.03 |
| Volatility | 13.0% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 13.3% |
| Max DD | -34.0% | -16.1% | -34.1% | -34.1% |
| Win Rate | 35.4% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg Win | 5.3% | 10.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% |
| Avg Loss | -3.0% | -2.1% | -3.2% | -2.9% |
| Payoff | 1.77 | 5.19 | 1.43 | 1.97 |
| Expectancy | -0.1% | 1.8% | -0.9% | -0.0% |
| Profit Factor | 0.97 | 2.22 | 0.61 | 0.99 |
| Trades | 48 | 10 | 20 | 78 |
| Avg Holding Days | 6.6 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 7.1 |
| Turnover | 9.6 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| Exposure | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 10.3% |
Growth of $100
LongTermTrend_V0674 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
LongTermTrend_V0674 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -3.6% | -0.46 | -8.9% | 4 |
| 2017 | 9.8% | 1.09 | -4.5% | 7 |
| 2018 | -5.8% | -0.85 | -7.3% | 4 |
| 2019 | -2.7% | -0.04 | -19.0% | 4 |
| 2020 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2021 | 8.5% | 0.49 | -16.0% | 7 |
| 2022 | 7.2% | 0.57 | -12.0% | 2 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 270 | -1.7% | -1.01 | 0% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 17.4% | 1.72 | 1% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | -7.9% | -0.70 | 1% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 430 | -0.4% | -0.03 | 14% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | -7.6% | -0.62 | 9% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 803 | -6.9% | -0.51 | 10% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | -28.8% | -2.26 | 14% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 12.9% | 0.77 | 11% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | -1.1% | -0.98 | 0% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 10.3% | 1.83 | 2% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 5.8% | 0.43 | 1% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 10.9% | 0.87 | 21% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -22.5% | -1.74 | 10% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -2.4% | -0.16 | 13% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -16.4% | -1.11 | 14% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 10.7% | 0.70 | 14% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | -9.5% | -1.00 | 0% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 12.9% | 1.10 | 23% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 14.9% | 0.79 | 12% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 9.7% | 0.53 | 17% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | 8.7% | 0.53 | 16% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 6.6% | 0.42 | 12% |
Trades (full period)
78 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-21 | $433.45 | $417.85 | -5.13% | 8 | |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-21 | $392.50 | $386.42 | -1.78% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-30 | $454.53 | $454.43 | 2.22% | 18 | |
| 2025-09-12 | 2025-09-15 | $395.94 | $410.04 | 5.72% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-30 | $321.20 | $319.04 | -1.24% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-25 | $328.49 | $316.06 | -6.05% | 5 | |
| 2024-09-23 | 2024-10-04 | $250.00 | $250.08 | 0.70% | 10 | |
| 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-20 | $243.92 | $238.25 | 5.72% | 2 | |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-09 | $210.73 | $216.27 | -6.91% | 2 | |
| 2024-07-03 | 2024-07-12 | $246.39 | $248.23 | 3.32% | 7 | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2024-01-02 | $253.50 | $248.42 | -0.94% | 11 | |
| 2023-11-29 | 2023-12-14 | $244.14 | $251.05 | -2.56% | 12 | |
| 2023-11-22 | 2023-11-24 | $234.21 | $235.45 | -2.48% | 2 | |
| 2023-11-16 | 2023-11-17 | $233.59 | $234.30 | -3.20% | 2 | |
| 2023-10-06 | 2023-10-17 | $260.53 | $254.85 | -2.03% | 8 | |
| 2023-09-12 | 2023-09-22 | $267.48 | $244.88 | -5.39% | 9 | |
| 2023-09-06 | 2023-09-07 | $251.92 | $251.49 | -1.58% | 2 | |
| 2023-08-30 | 2023-09-05 | $256.90 | $256.49 | -3.94% | 4 | |
| 2023-07-06 | 2023-07-07 | $276.54 | $274.43 | -1.84% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-05 | 2023-06-27 | $217.61 | $250.21 | 9.98% | 16 | |
| 2022-08-02 | 2022-08-12 | $300.59 | $300.03 | -2.97% | 9 | |
| 2022-03-21 | 2022-04-11 | $307.05 | $325.31 | 10.49% | 16 | |
| 2021-12-28 | 2022-01-03 | $362.82 | $399.93 | -2.88% | 5 | |
| 2021-10-13 | 2021-11-10 | $270.36 | $355.98 | 21.37% | 21 | |
| 2021-10-08 | 2021-10-11 | $261.83 | $263.98 | -0.98% | 2 | |
| 2021-09-27 | 2021-10-07 | $263.79 | $264.54 | 0.71% | 9 | |
| 2021-08-31 | 2021-09-21 | $245.24 | $246.46 | -0.21% | 15 | |
| 2021-08-02 | 2021-08-17 | $236.56 | $221.90 | -0.24% | 12 | |
| 2021-06-24 | 2021-07-12 | $226.61 | $228.57 | -0.08% | 12 | |
| 2021-04-14 | 2021-04-29 | $244.08 | $225.67 | -7.29% | 12 | |
| 2019-12-16 | 2019-12-17 | $25.43 | $25.27 | 4.99% | 2 | |
| 2019-10-15 | 2019-10-25 | $17.19 | $21.88 | 13.15% | 9 | |
| 2019-09-12 | 2019-09-25 | $16.39 | $15.25 | -7.91% | 10 | |
| 2019-07-25 | 2019-07-26 | $15.25 | $15.20 | -11.04% | 2 | |
| 2018-12-11 | 2018-12-18 | $24.45 | $22.47 | -3.81% | 6 | |
| 2018-12-07 | 2018-12-10 | $23.86 | $24.34 | -1.28% | 2 | |
| 2018-12-04 | 2018-12-06 | $23.98 | $24.20 | 0.11% | 2 | |
| 2018-01-18 | 2018-02-05 | $22.97 | $22.21 | -0.92% | 13 | |
| 2017-12-12 | 2017-12-26 | $22.74 | $21.15 | -1.04% | 10 | |
| 2017-10-18 | 2017-10-20 | $23.98 | $23.01 | -1.04% | 3 | |
| 2017-10-13 | 2017-10-17 | $23.70 | $23.72 | -1.30% | 3 | |
| 2017-03-24 | 2017-03-28 | $17.54 | $18.50 | 4.67% | 3 | |
| 2017-03-20 | 2017-03-22 | $17.46 | $17.00 | -3.46% | 3 | |
| 2017-02-01 | 2017-02-02 | $16.62 | $16.77 | -1.01% | 2 | |
| 2016-12-28 | 2017-01-25 | $14.65 | $16.96 | 12.46% | 19 | |
| 2016-10-04 | 2016-10-05 | $14.09 | $13.90 | -1.02% | 2 | |
| 2016-07-26 | 2016-08-09 | $15.30 | $15.27 | -1.49% | 11 | |
| 2016-06-08 | 2016-06-10 | $15.70 | $14.59 | -1.18% | 3 | |
| 2016-04-05 | 2016-04-14 | $17.03 | $16.79 | 2.32% | 8 | |
| 2015-12-31 | 2016-01-05 | $16.00 | $14.90 | -5.08% | 3 | |
| 2015-09-21 | 2015-09-29 | $17.61 | $16.44 | -3.90% | 7 | |
| 2015-07-21 | 2015-07-22 | $17.78 | $17.86 | -4.55% | 2 | |
| 2015-06-22 | 2015-07-09 | $17.32 | $17.19 | -2.40% | 13 | |
| 2015-06-18 | 2015-06-19 | $17.46 | $17.50 | 0.29% | 2 | |
| 2015-06-09 | 2015-06-10 | $17.07 | $16.71 | -0.25% | 2 | |
| 2015-04-28 | 2015-05-22 | $15.37 | $16.52 | 4.69% | 19 | |
| 2014-11-25 | 2014-12-01 | $16.54 | $15.44 | -0.87% | 4 | |
| 2014-11-12 | 2014-11-24 | $16.61 | $16.45 | -2.78% | 9 | |
| 2014-10-08 | 2014-10-10 | $17.29 | $15.79 | -0.95% | 3 | |
| 2014-09-02 | 2014-09-12 | $18.94 | $18.61 | 3.01% | 9 | |
| 2014-07-31 | 2014-08-25 | $14.89 | $17.50 | 9.51% | 18 | |
| 2014-06-16 | 2014-07-07 | $14.97 | $14.84 | 8.69% | 15 | |
| 2014-06-12 | 2014-06-13 | $13.57 | $13.76 | -0.53% | 2 | |
| 2014-06-06 | 2014-06-11 | $13.88 | $13.63 | -1.94% | 4 | |
| 2014-05-28 | 2014-06-03 | $14.02 | $13.66 | -2.76% | 5 | |
| 2014-01-07 | 2014-01-08 | $9.96 | $10.09 | 1.12% | 2 | |
| 2013-03-27 | 2013-04-02 | $2.54 | $2.96 | 12.65% | 4 | |
| 2013-03-08 | 2013-03-18 | $2.56 | $2.34 | -6.31% | 7 | |
| 2013-02-12 | 2013-02-14 | $2.53 | $2.55 | -0.10% | 3 | |
| 2013-01-23 | 2013-01-24 | $2.40 | $2.47 | 1.68% | 2 | |
| 2012-11-06 | 2012-12-14 | $2.08 | $2.25 | 5.24% | 28 | |
| 2012-09-18 | 2012-09-21 | $2.09 | $2.00 | -4.20% | 4 | |
| 2012-07-17 | 2012-07-23 | $2.22 | $2.04 | -9.49% | 5 | |
| 2012-06-27 | 2012-07-03 | $2.13 | $2.04 | -3.22% | 5 | |
| 2012-06-19 | 2012-06-25 | $2.14 | $2.21 | 4.76% | 5 | |
| 2012-03-27 | 2012-04-05 | $2.53 | $2.30 | -5.25% | 8 | |
| 2012-03-13 | 2012-03-16 | $2.41 | $2.35 | -2.40% | 4 | |
| 2012-02-15 | 2012-02-29 | $2.24 | $2.23 | 1.39% | 10 |