Strategy Zoo / S0645

LongTermTrend_V0645

ARCHIVEDhybrid

structuraladded exit filter: cumret_252d > -0.4091

Fitness
0.2304
Generation
29
Complexity
27
Created
2026-09-24

Lineage

Parents (1)
LongTermTrend_V0472S0472 · gen 22ARCHIVEDstructural

logic of LongTermTrend_V0452 with risk overlay of Breakout20_V0374

Children (0)
None

Strategy Logic (pseudocode)

# LongTermTrend_V0645  [hybrid]
if flat and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > -0.0024) or ret_20d > 0.085) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997 and dist_sma_50 > -0.0774) or ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) or ((breakout_50 == 1 and rel_volume > 1.5045) or ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) and sma_50 > sma_200)))):
    position = 1.0
if long and (macd_hist < 0.0 or cumret_252d > -0.4091):
    position = 0.0  # exit to cash
if regime.volatility == "HIGH_VOLATILITY": position *= 0.41

Backtest Metrics

MetricTrainValidationHidden TestFull
CAGR-7.1%33.9%-0.1%1.9%
Total Return-44.5%140.3%-0.4%32.7%
Sharpe-0.301.200.100.20
Sortino-0.271.410.100.19
Calmar-0.131.15-0.000.03
Volatility18.7%27.5%21.5%21.5%
Max DD-56.6%-29.6%-36.3%-56.6%
Win Rate48.0%54.3%50.2%50.1%
Avg Win1.6%2.6%2.1%2.0%
Avg Loss-1.6%-2.1%-2.1%-1.8%
Payoff0.961.261.031.07
Expectancy-0.1%0.5%0.0%0.1%
Profit Factor0.891.501.041.08
Trades477210205893
Avg Holding Days2.02.02.02.0
Turnover95.8114.491.598.6
Exposure19.0%22.7%19.1%19.8%

Growth of $100

LongTermTrend_V0645 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
LongTermTrend_V0645 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.

Walk-Forward Years

year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
YearCAGRSharpeMax DDTrades
20160.8%0.13-15.7%38
20173.7%0.32-9.4%73
2018-2.9%-0.13-11.9%54
20198.4%0.56-13.0%43
2020103.0%2.18-14.8%98
20215.0%0.32-20.1%73
20229.0%0.53-14.7%38

A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.

Regime Performance

PeriodRegimeDaysAnn. ReturnSharpeExposure
hidden testDOWNTREND2703.5%0.2710%
hidden testEXPENSIVE8363.3%2.0027%
hidden testEXTREME4862.1%2.9518%
hidden testHIGH VOLATILITY254-9.1%-0.4611%
hidden testLOW VOLATILITY43023.6%1.1923%
hidden testMEDIUM VOLATILITY250-23.2%-0.9120%
hidden testNORMAL803-7.7%-0.3818%
hidden testSIDEWAYS293-11.1%-0.5624%
hidden testUPTREND37111.8%0.4322%
trainDOWNTREND518-8.6%-0.608%
trainEXPENSIVE31115.0%0.6428%
trainEXTREME10072.6%2.7728%
trainHIGH VOLATILITY699-5.0%-0.309%
trainLOW VOLATILITY7452.5%0.1427%
trainMEDIUM VOLATILITY568-16.9%-0.7521%
trainNORMAL1,601-14.5%-0.8517%
trainSIDEWAYS592-3.0%-0.1818%
trainUPTREND902-5.6%-0.2526%
validationDOWNTREND12530.0%1.456%
validationEXPENSIVE13838.8%1.1129%
validationEXTREME144128.1%3.5827%
validationHIGH VOLATILITY25814.0%0.5112%
validationLOW VOLATILITY18310.1%0.6130%
validationMEDIUM VOLATILITY31561.8%1.9128%
validationNORMAL4742.4%0.1120%
validationSIDEWAYS206-4.3%-0.2917%
validationUPTREND42552.0%1.5630%

Trades (full period)

latest 100 of 893
EntryExitEntry PxExit PxReturnDays
2026-09-222026-09-23$378.90—0.76%2
2026-09-182026-09-21$364.27$375.30-0.73%2
2026-09-152026-09-16$356.58$358.08-0.86%2
2026-09-112026-09-14$365.44$358.970.32%2
2026-09-092026-09-10$367.81$363.56-0.29%2
2026-09-032026-09-04$376.37$354.085.22%2
2026-09-012026-09-02$356.09$357.01-3.42%2
2026-08-282026-08-31$348.75$367.95-1.91%2
2026-08-262026-08-27$345.82$354.81-1.46%2
2026-08-242026-08-25$348.95$350.25-4.03%2
2026-07-072026-07-08$402.90$394.06-1.73%2
2026-07-012026-07-02$425.30$393.450.92%2
2026-06-042026-06-05$418.45$391.00-1.44%2
2026-06-022026-06-03$423.74$423.701.69%2
2026-05-292026-06-01$435.79$415.88-1.63%2
2026-05-272026-05-28$440.36$442.101.36%2
2026-05-222026-05-26$426.01$433.591.75%2
2026-05-202026-05-21$417.26$417.853.05%2
2026-05-182026-05-19$409.99$404.11-3.10%2
2026-05-142026-05-15$443.30$422.24-0.64%2
2026-05-122026-05-13$433.45$445.27-2.79%2
2026-05-082026-05-11$428.35$445.003.82%2
2026-05-062026-05-07$398.73$411.792.20%2
2026-05-042026-05-05$392.51$389.370.23%2
2026-04-202026-04-21$392.50$386.42-2.22%2
2026-04-162026-04-17$388.90$400.62-0.98%2
2025-12-312026-01-02$449.72$438.07-1.24%2
2025-12-292025-12-30$459.64$454.43-3.47%2
2025-12-242025-12-26$485.40$475.19-0.23%2
2025-12-222025-12-23$488.73$485.561.36%2
2025-12-182025-12-19$483.37$481.203.24%2
2025-12-162025-12-17$489.88$467.262.86%2
2025-12-122025-12-15$458.96$475.312.50%2
2025-12-102025-12-11$451.45$446.891.21%2
2025-12-082025-12-09$439.58$445.17-3.59%2
2025-12-042025-12-05$454.53$455.001.54%2
2025-11-062025-11-07$445.91$429.52-3.69%2
2025-11-032025-11-04$468.37$444.262.38%2
2025-10-242025-10-27$433.72$452.42-3.60%2
2025-10-142025-10-15$429.24$435.15-1.73%2
2025-10-102025-10-13$413.49$435.90-5.26%2
2025-10-082025-10-09$438.69$435.541.09%2
2025-10-062025-10-07$453.25$433.095.24%2
2025-10-022025-10-03$436.00$429.83-5.30%2
2025-09-302025-10-01$444.72$459.460.14%2
2025-09-262025-09-29$440.40$443.213.81%2
2025-09-242025-09-25$442.79$423.393.77%2
2025-09-222025-09-23$434.21$425.851.71%2
2025-09-182025-09-19$416.85$426.07-2.31%2
2025-09-162025-09-17$421.62$425.862.62%2
2025-09-122025-09-15$395.94$410.047.15%2
2025-09-102025-09-11$347.79$368.810.04%2
2025-09-082025-09-09$346.40$346.97-1.46%2
2025-09-042025-09-05$338.53$350.841.13%2
2025-08-292025-09-02$333.87$329.36-3.70%2
2025-08-272025-08-28$349.60$345.98-0.79%2
2025-08-252025-08-26$346.60$351.671.74%2
2025-08-202025-08-21$323.90$320.11-1.84%2
2025-08-182025-08-19$335.16$329.311.19%2
2025-08-142025-08-15$335.58$330.56-1.32%2
2025-08-122025-08-13$340.84$339.380.33%2
2025-08-082025-08-11$329.65$339.032.09%2
2025-07-292025-07-30$321.20$319.04-1.55%2
2025-07-232025-07-24$332.56$305.30-0.06%2
2025-07-212025-07-22$328.49$332.11-0.55%2
2025-06-252025-06-26$327.55$325.78-1.64%2
2025-06-042025-06-05$332.05$284.70-3.75%2
2025-06-022025-06-03$342.69$344.27-1.29%2
2025-05-292025-05-30$358.43$346.460.23%2
2025-05-272025-05-28$362.89$356.906.73%2
2025-05-222025-05-23$341.04$339.341.72%2
2025-05-202025-05-21$343.82$334.620.31%2
2025-05-162025-05-19$349.98$342.090.77%2
2025-05-142025-05-15$347.68$342.821.59%2
2025-05-122025-05-13$318.38$334.076.54%2
2025-05-082025-05-09$284.82$298.261.19%2
2025-05-062025-05-07$275.35$276.22-0.80%2
2025-05-022025-05-05$287.21$280.260.90%2
2025-04-302025-05-01$282.16$280.52-1.47%2
2025-04-282025-04-29$285.88$292.030.05%2
2025-01-062025-01-07$411.05$394.36-0.02%2
2025-01-022025-01-03$379.28$410.44-2.57%2
2024-12-302024-12-31$417.41$403.84-1.43%2
2024-12-262024-12-27$454.13$431.66-0.80%2
2024-12-232024-12-24$430.60$462.280.85%2
2024-12-192024-12-20$436.17$421.06-1.10%2
2024-12-172024-12-18$479.86$440.133.43%2
2024-12-132024-12-16$436.23$463.024.13%2
2024-12-112024-12-12$424.77$418.105.72%2
2024-12-092024-12-10$389.79$400.99-0.02%2
2024-12-052024-12-06$369.49$389.221.24%2
2024-12-032024-12-04$351.42$357.93-0.73%2
2024-11-292024-12-02$345.16$357.091.43%2
2024-11-262024-11-27$338.23$332.89-0.13%2
2024-11-222024-11-25$352.56$338.591.48%2
2024-11-202024-11-21$342.03$339.64-0.55%2
2024-11-182024-11-19$338.74$346.002.22%2
2024-11-142024-11-15$311.18$320.72-2.45%2
2024-11-122024-11-13$328.49$330.24-2.60%2
2024-11-082024-11-11$321.22$350.003.27%2