Strategy Zoo / S0645
LongTermTrend_V0645
ARCHIVEDhybridstructuraladded exit filter: cumret_252d > -0.4091
Fitness
0.2304
Generation
29
Complexity
27
Created
2026-09-24
Lineage
Parents (1)
logic of LongTermTrend_V0452 with risk overlay of Breakout20_V0374
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# LongTermTrend_V0645 [hybrid]
if flat and ((((close > sma_200 and sma_200_slope > -0.0024) or ret_20d > 0.085) and ret_20d > 0.05 and cumret_252d > -0.1997 and dist_sma_50 > -0.0774) or ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) or ((breakout_50 == 1 and rel_volume > 1.5045) or ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) and sma_50 > sma_200)))):
position = 1.0
if long and (macd_hist < 0.0 or cumret_252d > -0.4091):
position = 0.0 # exit to cash
if regime.volatility == "HIGH_VOLATILITY": position *= 0.41Backtest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | -7.1% | 33.9% | -0.1% | 1.9% |
| Total Return | -44.5% | 140.3% | -0.4% | 32.7% |
| Sharpe | -0.30 | 1.20 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Sortino | -0.27 | 1.41 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Calmar | -0.13 | 1.15 | -0.00 | 0.03 |
| Volatility | 18.7% | 27.5% | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| Max DD | -56.6% | -29.6% | -36.3% | -56.6% |
| Win Rate | 48.0% | 54.3% | 50.2% | 50.1% |
| Avg Win | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Avg Loss | -1.6% | -2.1% | -2.1% | -1.8% |
| Payoff | 0.96 | 1.26 | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| Expectancy | -0.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Profit Factor | 0.89 | 1.50 | 1.04 | 1.08 |
| Trades | 477 | 210 | 205 | 893 |
| Avg Holding Days | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Turnover | 95.8 | 114.4 | 91.5 | 98.6 |
| Exposure | 19.0% | 22.7% | 19.1% | 19.8% |
Growth of $100
LongTermTrend_V0645 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
LongTermTrend_V0645 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.8% | 0.13 | -15.7% | 38 |
| 2017 | 3.7% | 0.32 | -9.4% | 73 |
| 2018 | -2.9% | -0.13 | -11.9% | 54 |
| 2019 | 8.4% | 0.56 | -13.0% | 43 |
| 2020 | 103.0% | 2.18 | -14.8% | 98 |
| 2021 | 5.0% | 0.32 | -20.1% | 73 |
| 2022 | 9.0% | 0.53 | -14.7% | 38 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 270 | 3.5% | 0.27 | 10% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 63.3% | 2.00 | 27% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 62.1% | 2.95 | 18% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | -9.1% | -0.46 | 11% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 430 | 23.6% | 1.19 | 23% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 250 | -23.2% | -0.91 | 20% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 803 | -7.7% | -0.38 | 18% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | -11.1% | -0.56 | 24% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 11.8% | 0.43 | 22% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | -8.6% | -0.60 | 8% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 15.0% | 0.64 | 28% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 72.6% | 2.77 | 28% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | -5.0% | -0.30 | 9% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 2.5% | 0.14 | 27% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -16.9% | -0.75 | 21% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -14.5% | -0.85 | 17% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -3.0% | -0.18 | 18% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | -5.6% | -0.25 | 26% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 30.0% | 1.45 | 6% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 38.8% | 1.11 | 29% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 128.1% | 3.58 | 27% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 14.0% | 0.51 | 12% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 10.1% | 0.61 | 30% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 61.8% | 1.91 | 28% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 2.4% | 0.11 | 20% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -4.3% | -0.29 | 17% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 52.0% | 1.56 | 30% |
Trades (full period)
latest 100 of 893
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-23 | $378.90 | — | 0.76% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-21 | $364.27 | $375.30 | -0.73% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-15 | 2026-09-16 | $356.58 | $358.08 | -0.86% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-14 | $365.44 | $358.97 | 0.32% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-09 | 2026-09-10 | $367.81 | $363.56 | -0.29% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-03 | 2026-09-04 | $376.37 | $354.08 | 5.22% | 2 | |
| 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-02 | $356.09 | $357.01 | -3.42% | 2 | |
| 2026-08-28 | 2026-08-31 | $348.75 | $367.95 | -1.91% | 2 | |
| 2026-08-26 | 2026-08-27 | $345.82 | $354.81 | -1.46% | 2 | |
| 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-25 | $348.95 | $350.25 | -4.03% | 2 | |
| 2026-07-07 | 2026-07-08 | $402.90 | $394.06 | -1.73% | 2 | |
| 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-02 | $425.30 | $393.45 | 0.92% | 2 | |
| 2026-06-04 | 2026-06-05 | $418.45 | $391.00 | -1.44% | 2 | |
| 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-03 | $423.74 | $423.70 | 1.69% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-01 | $435.79 | $415.88 | -1.63% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-27 | 2026-05-28 | $440.36 | $442.10 | 1.36% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-22 | 2026-05-26 | $426.01 | $433.59 | 1.75% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-20 | 2026-05-21 | $417.26 | $417.85 | 3.05% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-19 | $409.99 | $404.11 | -3.10% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-14 | 2026-05-15 | $443.30 | $422.24 | -0.64% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-13 | $433.45 | $445.27 | -2.79% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-11 | $428.35 | $445.00 | 3.82% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-07 | $398.73 | $411.79 | 2.20% | 2 | |
| 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-05 | $392.51 | $389.37 | 0.23% | 2 | |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-21 | $392.50 | $386.42 | -2.22% | 2 | |
| 2026-04-16 | 2026-04-17 | $388.90 | $400.62 | -0.98% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-01-02 | $449.72 | $438.07 | -1.24% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-12-30 | $459.64 | $454.43 | -3.47% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-24 | 2025-12-26 | $485.40 | $475.19 | -0.23% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-23 | $488.73 | $485.56 | 1.36% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-12-19 | $483.37 | $481.20 | 3.24% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-16 | 2025-12-17 | $489.88 | $467.26 | 2.86% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-12 | 2025-12-15 | $458.96 | $475.31 | 2.50% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-11 | $451.45 | $446.89 | 1.21% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-09 | $439.58 | $445.17 | -3.59% | 2 | |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-05 | $454.53 | $455.00 | 1.54% | 2 | |
| 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-07 | $445.91 | $429.52 | -3.69% | 2 | |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-04 | $468.37 | $444.26 | 2.38% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-10-27 | $433.72 | $452.42 | -3.60% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-14 | 2025-10-15 | $429.24 | $435.15 | -1.73% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-13 | $413.49 | $435.90 | -5.26% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-08 | 2025-10-09 | $438.69 | $435.54 | 1.09% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-06 | 2025-10-07 | $453.25 | $433.09 | 5.24% | 2 | |
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-03 | $436.00 | $429.83 | -5.30% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-01 | $444.72 | $459.46 | 0.14% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-09-29 | $440.40 | $443.21 | 3.81% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-24 | 2025-09-25 | $442.79 | $423.39 | 3.77% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-23 | $434.21 | $425.85 | 1.71% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-19 | $416.85 | $426.07 | -2.31% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-16 | 2025-09-17 | $421.62 | $425.86 | 2.62% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-12 | 2025-09-15 | $395.94 | $410.04 | 7.15% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-11 | $347.79 | $368.81 | 0.04% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-08 | 2025-09-09 | $346.40 | $346.97 | -1.46% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-04 | 2025-09-05 | $338.53 | $350.84 | 1.13% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-29 | 2025-09-02 | $333.87 | $329.36 | -3.70% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-27 | 2025-08-28 | $349.60 | $345.98 | -0.79% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-26 | $346.60 | $351.67 | 1.74% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-21 | $323.90 | $320.11 | -1.84% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-18 | 2025-08-19 | $335.16 | $329.31 | 1.19% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-14 | 2025-08-15 | $335.58 | $330.56 | -1.32% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-12 | 2025-08-13 | $340.84 | $339.38 | 0.33% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-11 | $329.65 | $339.03 | 2.09% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-30 | $321.20 | $319.04 | -1.55% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-24 | $332.56 | $305.30 | -0.06% | 2 | |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-22 | $328.49 | $332.11 | -0.55% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-26 | $327.55 | $325.78 | -1.64% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-04 | 2025-06-05 | $332.05 | $284.70 | -3.75% | 2 | |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-06-03 | $342.69 | $344.27 | -1.29% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-29 | 2025-05-30 | $358.43 | $346.46 | 0.23% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-27 | 2025-05-28 | $362.89 | $356.90 | 6.73% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-22 | 2025-05-23 | $341.04 | $339.34 | 1.72% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-20 | 2025-05-21 | $343.82 | $334.62 | 0.31% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-16 | 2025-05-19 | $349.98 | $342.09 | 0.77% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | $347.68 | $342.82 | 1.59% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-05-13 | $318.38 | $334.07 | 6.54% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-08 | 2025-05-09 | $284.82 | $298.26 | 1.19% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-06 | 2025-05-07 | $275.35 | $276.22 | -0.80% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-05-05 | $287.21 | $280.26 | 0.90% | 2 | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-01 | $282.16 | $280.52 | -1.47% | 2 | |
| 2025-04-28 | 2025-04-29 | $285.88 | $292.03 | 0.05% | 2 | |
| 2025-01-06 | 2025-01-07 | $411.05 | $394.36 | -0.02% | 2 | |
| 2025-01-02 | 2025-01-03 | $379.28 | $410.44 | -2.57% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-30 | 2024-12-31 | $417.41 | $403.84 | -1.43% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-26 | 2024-12-27 | $454.13 | $431.66 | -0.80% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-23 | 2024-12-24 | $430.60 | $462.28 | 0.85% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-19 | 2024-12-20 | $436.17 | $421.06 | -1.10% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-17 | 2024-12-18 | $479.86 | $440.13 | 3.43% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-13 | 2024-12-16 | $436.23 | $463.02 | 4.13% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-11 | 2024-12-12 | $424.77 | $418.10 | 5.72% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-09 | 2024-12-10 | $389.79 | $400.99 | -0.02% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-05 | 2024-12-06 | $369.49 | $389.22 | 1.24% | 2 | |
| 2024-12-03 | 2024-12-04 | $351.42 | $357.93 | -0.73% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-29 | 2024-12-02 | $345.16 | $357.09 | 1.43% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-26 | 2024-11-27 | $338.23 | $332.89 | -0.13% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-22 | 2024-11-25 | $352.56 | $338.59 | 1.48% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-20 | 2024-11-21 | $342.03 | $339.64 | -0.55% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-18 | 2024-11-19 | $338.74 | $346.00 | 2.22% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-14 | 2024-11-15 | $311.18 | $320.72 | -2.45% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-12 | 2024-11-13 | $328.49 | $330.24 | -2.60% | 2 | |
| 2024-11-08 | 2024-11-11 | $321.22 | $350.00 | 3.27% | 2 |