Strategy Zoo / S0487
MACDMomentum_V0487
ARCHIVEDhybridstructuralremoved entry condition: (macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50)
Fitness
0.6284
Generation
22
Complexity
10
Created
2026-09-19
Lineage
Parents (1)
changed rel_volume threshold 1.5045 -> 1.0207
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# MACDMomentum_V0487 [hybrid]
if flat and ((breakout_50 == 1 and rel_volume > 1.0207) or ((macd_hist > 0.0 and close > sma_50) and sma_50 > sma_200)):
position = 1.0
if long and macd_hist < 0.0:
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 15.8% | 86.2% | 18.0% | 28.5% |
| Total Return | 223.2% | 545.4% | 84.1% | 3855.4% |
| Sharpe | 0.65 | 1.68 | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| Sortino | 0.58 | 1.69 | 0.62 | 0.86 |
| Calmar | 0.33 | 3.73 | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| Volatility | 28.6% | 42.3% | 27.1% | 31.6% |
| Max DD | -47.4% | -23.1% | -23.7% | -47.4% |
| Win Rate | 41.8% | 54.5% | 44.4% | 45.3% |
| Avg Win | 15.0% | 22.2% | 14.2% | 17.7% |
| Avg Loss | -5.1% | -3.5% | -4.2% | -4.6% |
| Payoff | 2.91 | 6.32 | 3.37 | 3.81 |
| Expectancy | 3.3% | 10.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% |
| Profit Factor | 2.09 | 7.58 | 2.70 | 3.15 |
| Trades | 55 | 22 | 18 | 95 |
| Avg Holding Days | 11.7 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 12.5 |
| Turnover | 13.9 | 14.7 | 9.7 | 12.9 |
| Exposure | 30.0% | 35.3% | 23.8% | 29.5% |
Growth of $100
MACDMomentum_V0487 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
MACDMomentum_V0487 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -3.3% | -0.19 | -11.5% | 5 |
| 2017 | 14.6% | 0.73 | -19.9% | 12 |
| 2018 | -12.9% | -0.50 | -24.0% | 7 |
| 2019 | 24.2% | 0.86 | -25.1% | 3 |
| 2020 | 347.3% | 2.77 | -23.1% | 9 |
| 2021 | 28.7% | 0.98 | -16.8% | 9 |
| 2022 | -2.0% | 0.02 | -17.6% | 4 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 267 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 97.6% | 2.17 | 49% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 126.8% | 2.89 | 35% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | 28.1% | 0.82 | 23% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 429 | 28.1% | 1.36 | 24% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 248 | -1.7% | -0.06 | 25% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 800 | 5.7% | 0.25 | 21% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | -9.0% | -0.35 | 28% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 57.7% | 1.59 | 38% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | -4.2% | -0.93 | 2% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 41.2% | 1.23 | 51% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 288.1% | 4.19 | 70% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 40.8% | 1.03 | 30% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 25.2% | 1.34 | 35% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -17.1% | -0.77 | 23% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -2.5% | -0.11 | 23% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -1.1% | -0.05 | 28% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 44.9% | 1.17 | 48% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 18.7% | 1.38 | 5% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 70.6% | 1.82 | 38% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 255.8% | 3.48 | 67% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 86.1% | 1.54 | 30% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 30.0% | 1.54 | 36% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 82.4% | 2.12 | 40% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 15.0% | 0.55 | 25% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | 11.9% | 0.45 | 25% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 115.0% | 2.18 | 49% |
Trades (full period)
95 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-21 | $433.45 | $417.85 | -6.42% | 8 | |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-30 | $454.53 | $454.43 | 2.68% | 18 | |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-05 | $444.26 | $462.07 | -5.34% | 2 | |
| 2025-09-12 | 2025-10-06 | $395.94 | $453.25 | 16.32% | 17 | |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-08-01 | $328.49 | $302.63 | -6.67% | 10 | |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-06-03 | $318.38 | $344.27 | 14.67% | 16 | |
| 2024-12-09 | 2024-12-24 | $389.79 | $462.28 | 10.41% | 12 | |
| 2024-10-25 | 2024-11-29 | $269.19 | $345.16 | 27.55% | 25 | |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024-10-04 | $210.73 | $250.08 | 4.34% | 21 | |
| 2024-08-20 | 2024-08-30 | $221.10 | $214.11 | -7.57% | 9 | |
| 2024-06-27 | 2024-07-22 | $197.42 | $251.51 | 21.57% | 17 | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2024-01-02 | $253.50 | $248.42 | -1.22% | 11 | |
| 2023-11-16 | 2023-12-14 | $233.59 | $251.05 | -1.66% | 20 | |
| 2023-10-06 | 2023-10-17 | $260.53 | $254.85 | -2.55% | 8 | |
| 2023-08-30 | 2023-09-25 | $256.90 | $246.99 | -4.97% | 18 | |
| 2023-07-06 | 2023-07-07 | $276.54 | $274.43 | -2.30% | 2 | |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-06-27 | $213.97 | $250.21 | 15.93% | 17 | |
| 2023-02-10 | 2023-02-23 | $196.89 | $202.07 | -3.31% | 9 | |
| 2022-07-22 | 2022-08-12 | $272.24 | $300.03 | 5.28% | 16 | |
| 2022-03-21 | 2022-04-11 | $307.05 | $325.31 | 13.04% | 16 | |
| 2022-01-13 | 2022-01-14 | $343.85 | $349.87 | -6.94% | 2 | |
| 2021-12-28 | 2022-01-12 | $362.82 | $368.74 | -2.90% | 12 | |
| 2021-10-13 | 2021-11-11 | $270.36 | $354.50 | 32.28% | 22 | |
| 2021-10-08 | 2021-10-11 | $261.83 | $263.98 | -1.22% | 2 | |
| 2021-09-27 | 2021-10-07 | $263.79 | $264.54 | 0.88% | 9 | |
| 2021-08-31 | 2021-09-21 | $245.24 | $246.46 | -0.30% | 15 | |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-08-17 | $236.58 | $221.90 | -3.50% | 11 | |
| 2021-06-24 | 2021-07-12 | $226.61 | $228.57 | -0.14% | 12 | |
| 2021-04-14 | 2021-04-29 | $244.08 | $225.67 | -9.10% | 12 | |
| 2021-01-26 | 2021-01-27 | $294.36 | $288.05 | 0.06% | 2 | |
| 2021-01-05 | 2021-01-25 | $245.04 | $293.60 | 15.78% | 14 | |
| 2020-12-18 | 2020-12-23 | $231.67 | $215.33 | -2.56% | 4 | |
| 2020-11-18 | 2020-12-17 | $162.21 | $218.63 | 40.75% | 21 | |
| 2020-11-09 | 2020-11-11 | $140.42 | $139.04 | -4.75% | 3 | |
| 2020-10-14 | 2020-10-20 | $153.77 | $140.65 | -3.73% | 5 | |
| 2020-08-18 | 2020-09-08 | $125.81 | $110.07 | 13.72% | 15 | |
| 2020-07-01 | 2020-07-27 | $74.64 | $102.64 | 30.97% | 18 | |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-06-25 | $58.77 | $65.73 | 6.77% | 18 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-05-14 | $47.33 | $53.56 | 21.28% | 23 | |
| 2019-12-13 | 2020-02-26 | $23.89 | $51.92 | 121.95% | 50 | |
| 2019-10-14 | 2019-11-21 | $17.13 | $23.66 | 41.81% | 29 | |
| 2019-07-25 | 2019-07-26 | $15.25 | $15.20 | -13.80% | 2 | |
| 2019-01-11 | 2019-01-22 | $23.15 | $19.93 | -12.56% | 7 | |
| 2018-12-11 | 2018-12-18 | $24.45 | $22.47 | -4.77% | 6 | |
| 2018-12-07 | 2018-12-10 | $23.86 | $24.34 | -1.60% | 2 | |
| 2018-12-04 | 2018-12-06 | $23.98 | $24.20 | 0.14% | 2 | |
| 2018-10-30 | 2018-11-21 | $21.99 | $22.55 | 3.57% | 17 | |
| 2018-08-03 | 2018-08-20 | $23.21 | $20.56 | -12.77% | 12 | |
| 2018-06-07 | 2018-06-26 | $21.07 | $22.80 | 4.02% | 14 | |
| 2018-01-18 | 2018-02-05 | $22.97 | $22.21 | -1.18% | 13 | |
| 2017-12-12 | 2017-12-27 | $22.74 | $20.78 | -3.72% | 11 | |
| 2017-10-12 | 2017-10-23 | $23.71 | $22.47 | -2.87% | 8 | |
| 2017-09-12 | 2017-09-25 | $24.18 | $23.00 | -3.66% | 10 | |
| 2017-08-04 | 2017-08-22 | $23.79 | $22.76 | -2.85% | 13 | |
| 2017-07-25 | 2017-08-02 | $22.64 | $21.73 | -6.89% | 7 | |
| 2017-05-31 | 2017-06-27 | $22.73 | $24.16 | 12.43% | 20 | |
| 2017-05-15 | 2017-05-16 | $21.06 | $21.13 | -2.95% | 2 | |
| 2017-05-02 | 2017-05-04 | $21.26 | $19.70 | -3.85% | 3 | |
| 2017-04-26 | 2017-04-27 | $20.68 | $20.58 | -1.35% | 2 | |
| 2017-03-17 | 2017-04-21 | $17.43 | $20.37 | 15.21% | 25 | |
| 2017-02-10 | 2017-02-22 | $17.95 | $18.23 | 2.84% | 8 | |
| 2016-12-21 | 2017-02-02 | $13.85 | $16.77 | 19.13% | 29 | |
| 2016-07-22 | 2016-08-09 | $14.82 | $15.27 | 2.36% | 13 | |
| 2016-06-08 | 2016-06-16 | $15.70 | $14.53 | -6.49% | 7 | |
| 2016-04-05 | 2016-04-14 | $17.03 | $16.79 | 2.85% | 8 | |
| 2016-03-22 | 2016-04-01 | $15.62 | $15.84 | -3.78% | 8 | |
| 2015-12-31 | 2016-01-06 | $16.00 | $14.60 | -6.34% | 4 | |
| 2015-09-16 | 2015-09-30 | $17.48 | $16.56 | -2.92% | 11 | |
| 2015-07-21 | 2015-07-22 | $17.78 | $17.86 | -5.68% | 2 | |
| 2015-06-22 | 2015-07-09 | $17.32 | $17.19 | -3.07% | 13 | |
| 2015-06-18 | 2015-06-19 | $17.46 | $17.50 | 0.37% | 2 | |
| 2015-06-09 | 2015-06-10 | $17.07 | $16.71 | -0.31% | 2 | |
| 2015-04-23 | 2015-05-22 | $14.57 | $16.52 | 11.71% | 22 | |
| 2014-11-12 | 2014-12-01 | $16.61 | $15.44 | -2.81% | 13 | |
| 2014-10-08 | 2014-10-13 | $17.29 | $14.97 | -8.91% | 4 | |
| 2014-09-02 | 2014-09-12 | $18.94 | $18.61 | 3.73% | 9 | |
| 2014-07-31 | 2014-08-25 | $14.89 | $17.50 | 11.94% | 18 | |
| 2014-05-28 | 2014-07-07 | $14.02 | $14.84 | 8.14% | 28 | |
| 2014-02-11 | 2014-03-11 | $13.11 | $15.63 | 21.27% | 20 | |
| 2014-01-15 | 2014-02-06 | $10.94 | $11.89 | 7.94% | 16 | |
| 2013-12-18 | 2014-01-10 | $9.87 | $9.71 | -3.43% | 16 | |
| 2013-09-20 | 2013-10-04 | $12.23 | $12.07 | -2.78% | 11 | |
| 2013-08-23 | 2013-09-10 | $10.79 | $11.09 | 2.09% | 12 | |
| 2013-07-30 | 2013-08-15 | $8.78 | $9.31 | 3.31% | 13 | |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-07-17 | $7.85 | $8.02 | -7.12% | 11 | |
| 2013-03-27 | 2013-06-04 | $2.54 | $6.32 | 144.07% | 48 | |
| 2013-03-08 | 2013-03-18 | $2.56 | $2.34 | -7.87% | 7 | |
| 2013-01-23 | 2013-02-14 | $2.40 | $2.55 | 9.05% | 17 | |
| 2013-01-03 | 2013-01-04 | $2.32 | $2.29 | -1.87% | 2 | |
| 2012-11-20 | 2012-12-14 | $2.20 | $2.25 | 1.89% | 18 | |
| 2012-07-17 | 2012-07-23 | $2.22 | $2.04 | -11.78% | 5 | |
| 2012-06-19 | 2012-07-03 | $2.14 | $2.04 | -4.71% | 11 | |
| 2012-03-27 | 2012-04-05 | $2.53 | $2.30 | -6.60% | 8 | |
| 2012-03-13 | 2012-03-16 | $2.41 | $2.35 | -3.00% | 4 | |
| 2012-01-31 | 2012-02-29 | $1.94 | $2.23 | 14.11% | 21 |