Strategy Zoo / S0374
Breakout20_V0374
ARCHIVEDbreakoutstructuralchanged dist_sma_20 threshold -0.0187 -> -0.121; reduce exposure to 41% during HIGH_VOLATILITY
Fitness
0.6954
Generation
17
Complexity
6
Created
2026-09-18
Lineage
Parents (1)
added entry filter: vol_chg < 1.2007
Children (12)
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# Breakout20_V0374 [breakout]
if flat and (breakout_20 == 1 and dist_sma_20 > -0.121 and vol_chg < 1.2007):
position = 1.0
if long and close < sma_20:
position = 0.0 # exit to cash
if regime.volatility == "HIGH_VOLATILITY": position *= 0.41Backtest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 9.2% | 93.3% | 11.5% | 23.6% |
| Total Return | 101.9% | 621.9% | 49.3% | 2139.7% |
| Sharpe | 0.49 | 2.04 | 0.54 | 0.91 |
| Sortino | 0.40 | 2.31 | 0.47 | 0.82 |
| Calmar | 0.24 | 4.18 | 0.37 | 0.60 |
| Volatility | 23.4% | 35.4% | 27.2% | 27.2% |
| Max DD | -39.0% | -22.3% | -30.7% | -39.0% |
| Win Rate | 38.6% | 50.0% | 45.0% | 42.3% |
| Avg Win | 12.9% | 42.1% | 13.9% | 20.3% |
| Avg Loss | -5.1% | -4.4% | -6.2% | -5.3% |
| Payoff | 2.53 | 9.58 | 2.23 | 3.86 |
| Expectancy | 1.8% | 18.9% | 2.8% | 5.6% |
| Profit Factor | 1.59 | 9.58 | 1.83 | 2.83 |
| Trades | 44 | 14 | 20 | 78 |
| Avg Holding Days | 17.0 | 24.0 | 17.1 | 18.5 |
| Turnover | 11.1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 10.9 |
| Exposure | 29.2% | 35.4% | 29.8% | 30.6% |
Growth of $100
Breakout20_V0374 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
Breakout20_V0374 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19.1% | 1.16 | -14.3% | 3 |
| 2017 | 19.5% | 0.92 | -15.5% | 7 |
| 2018 | -14.5% | -1.33 | -16.1% | 6 |
| 2019 | 19.0% | 0.72 | -18.4% | 5 |
| 2020 | 391.8% | 3.76 | -22.3% | 4 |
| 2021 | 30.9% | 1.00 | -18.8% | 6 |
| 2022 | 7.7% | 0.42 | -20.8% | 4 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 267 | 12.4% | 0.67 | 18% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 39.7% | 1.06 | 47% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 83.6% | 2.33 | 33% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | 8.8% | 0.38 | 14% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 429 | 52.5% | 2.03 | 37% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 248 | -45.2% | -1.40 | 33% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 800 | 7.8% | 0.31 | 28% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | -15.7% | -0.68 | 32% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 39.9% | 1.16 | 36% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | -6.0% | -0.42 | 13% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 46.5% | 1.49 | 45% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 166.3% | 4.24 | 50% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 11.9% | 0.48 | 14% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 28.9% | 1.36 | 45% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -11.6% | -0.48 | 28% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | -4.9% | -0.25 | 25% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | -9.2% | -0.46 | 23% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 35.2% | 1.21 | 43% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 34.7% | 1.59 | 11% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 74.1% | 1.71 | 47% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 250.2% | 5.26 | 48% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 39.9% | 1.21 | 16% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 28.1% | 1.28 | 43% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 124.1% | 2.91 | 47% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | 17.5% | 0.65 | 28% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | 9.7% | 0.41 | 25% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 113.4% | 2.67 | 47% |
Trades (full period)
78 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-16 | $348.95 | $358.08 | -1.93% | 17 | |
| 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-06 | $393.45 | $419.77 | -7.68% | 2 | |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-06-02 | $392.50 | $423.74 | 3.60% | 31 | |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-30 | $439.58 | $454.43 | 0.81% | 16 | |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-11-10 | $461.51 | $445.23 | -6.92% | 9 | |
| 2025-09-12 | 2025-10-13 | $395.94 | $435.90 | 11.90% | 22 | |
| 2025-08-26 | 2025-09-03 | $351.67 | $334.09 | -5.16% | 6 | |
| 2025-08-12 | 2025-08-22 | $340.84 | $340.01 | -5.77% | 9 | |
| 2025-04-28 | 2025-06-05 | $285.88 | $284.70 | 7.08% | 28 | |
| 2024-11-08 | 2025-01-02 | $321.22 | $379.28 | 17.20% | 37 | |
| 2024-09-16 | 2024-10-08 | $226.78 | $244.50 | 5.71% | 17 | |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-09 | $210.73 | $216.27 | -8.64% | 2 | |
| 2024-06-18 | 2024-07-25 | $184.86 | $220.25 | 23.05% | 26 | |
| 2024-02-29 | 2024-03-05 | $201.88 | $180.74 | -7.07% | 4 | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2024-01-04 | $253.50 | $237.93 | -5.21% | 13 | |
| 2023-11-16 | 2023-12-13 | $233.59 | $239.29 | -2.60% | 19 | |
| 2023-09-12 | 2023-09-22 | $267.48 | $244.88 | -6.72% | 9 | |
| 2023-05-19 | 2023-07-21 | $180.14 | $260.02 | 48.33% | 43 | |
| 2023-04-03 | 2023-04-06 | $194.77 | $185.06 | -10.76% | 4 | |
| 2023-01-24 | 2023-03-03 | $143.89 | $197.79 | 7.37% | 28 | |
| 2022-09-20 | 2022-09-23 | $308.73 | $275.33 | -6.81% | 4 | |
| 2022-07-11 | 2022-08-23 | $234.34 | $296.45 | 14.47% | 32 | |
| 2022-03-21 | 2022-04-12 | $307.05 | $328.98 | 7.58% | 17 | |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-01-10 | $383.20 | $352.71 | -6.18% | 5 | |
| 2021-09-27 | 2021-11-15 | $263.79 | $337.80 | 32.47% | 36 | |
| 2021-08-31 | 2021-09-21 | $245.24 | $246.46 | -0.30% | 15 | |
| 2021-08-02 | 2021-08-17 | $236.56 | $221.90 | -0.35% | 12 | |
| 2021-06-24 | 2021-07-15 | $226.61 | $216.87 | -0.68% | 15 | |
| 2021-04-14 | 2021-04-28 | $244.08 | $231.47 | -7.74% | 11 | |
| 2020-11-18 | 2021-02-01 | $162.21 | $279.94 | 79.35% | 50 | |
| 2020-10-15 | 2020-10-21 | $149.63 | $140.88 | -8.72% | 5 | |
| 2020-08-17 | 2020-09-09 | $122.38 | $122.09 | 12.12% | 17 | |
| 2020-04-13 | 2020-08-03 | $43.40 | $99.00 | 85.70% | 79 | |
| 2019-12-13 | 2020-02-27 | $23.89 | $45.27 | 95.12% | 51 | |
| 2019-10-14 | 2019-11-25 | $17.13 | $22.42 | 21.42% | 31 | |
| 2019-09-11 | 2019-09-25 | $16.47 | $15.25 | -5.42% | 11 | |
| 2019-06-18 | 2019-07-26 | $14.98 | $15.20 | 2.96% | 28 | |
| 2019-04-04 | 2019-04-05 | $17.85 | $18.33 | -8.43% | 2 | |
| 2019-01-18 | 2019-01-22 | $20.15 | $19.93 | -5.40% | 2 | |
| 2018-12-04 | 2018-12-18 | $23.98 | $22.47 | -3.00% | 10 | |
| 2018-11-01 | 2018-11-23 | $22.95 | $21.72 | 0.10% | 16 | |
| 2018-06-14 | 2018-07-03 | $23.85 | $20.72 | -1.11% | 14 | |
| 2018-05-10 | 2018-05-15 | $20.33 | $18.95 | -3.97% | 4 | |
| 2018-02-27 | 2018-03-02 | $23.40 | $22.34 | -3.16% | 4 | |
| 2018-01-18 | 2018-02-06 | $22.97 | $22.26 | -4.23% | 14 | |
| 2017-12-12 | 2017-12-27 | $22.74 | $20.78 | -3.72% | 11 | |
| 2017-09-14 | 2017-09-25 | $25.18 | $23.00 | -4.32% | 8 | |
| 2017-08-04 | 2017-08-21 | $23.79 | $22.52 | -0.56% | 12 | |
| 2017-05-31 | 2017-06-28 | $22.73 | $24.75 | 7.03% | 21 | |
| 2017-05-11 | 2017-05-18 | $21.54 | $20.87 | -5.70% | 6 | |
| 2017-03-27 | 2017-05-05 | $18.01 | $20.56 | 9.68% | 29 | |
| 2016-12-14 | 2017-02-24 | $13.25 | $17.13 | 28.93% | 49 | |
| 2016-07-12 | 2016-08-09 | $14.98 | $15.27 | 1.59% | 21 | |
| 2016-06-09 | 2016-06-13 | $15.29 | $14.52 | -7.29% | 3 | |
| 2016-03-04 | 2016-04-29 | $13.40 | $16.05 | 17.34% | 40 | |
| 2015-12-31 | 2016-01-05 | $16.00 | $14.90 | -6.35% | 3 | |
| 2015-12-02 | 2015-12-14 | $15.47 | $14.57 | -7.65% | 9 | |
| 2015-11-09 | 2015-11-11 | $15.02 | $14.61 | -2.91% | 3 | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-09-29 | $17.47 | $16.44 | -5.11% | 9 | |
| 2015-07-21 | 2015-07-22 | $17.78 | $17.86 | -5.68% | 2 | |
| 2015-04-07 | 2015-07-09 | $13.55 | $17.19 | 25.28% | 66 | |
| 2015-02-04 | 2015-02-13 | $14.57 | $13.58 | -7.27% | 8 | |
| 2014-11-12 | 2014-11-24 | $16.61 | $16.45 | -3.50% | 9 | |
| 2014-08-05 | 2014-09-16 | $15.90 | $17.38 | 6.22% | 30 | |
| 2014-06-24 | 2014-07-08 | $15.50 | $14.60 | -6.33% | 10 | |
| 2014-01-22 | 2014-03-17 | $11.90 | $15.60 | 28.56% | 38 | |
| 2013-12-13 | 2014-01-10 | $9.84 | $9.71 | -1.08% | 19 | |
| 2013-07-30 | 2013-10-04 | $8.78 | $12.07 | 13.65% | 48 | |
| 2013-06-27 | 2013-07-17 | $7.28 | $8.02 | 2.95% | 14 | |
| 2013-04-17 | 2013-06-12 | $3.03 | $6.52 | 37.65% | 40 | |
| 2013-01-24 | 2013-02-19 | $2.47 | $2.62 | 2.69% | 18 | |
| 2012-11-14 | 2012-12-24 | $2.09 | $2.29 | 7.35% | 28 | |
| 2012-09-18 | 2012-09-26 | $2.09 | $1.84 | -15.17% | 7 | |
| 2012-07-16 | 2012-07-19 | $2.40 | $2.15 | -6.31% | 4 | |
| 2012-06-19 | 2012-07-03 | $2.14 | $2.04 | -0.97% | 11 | |
| 2012-04-04 | 2012-04-05 | $2.33 | $2.30 | -8.11% | 2 | |
| 2012-03-14 | 2012-03-23 | $2.35 | $2.27 | -4.88% | 8 | |
| 2012-01-27 | 2012-03-07 | $1.96 | $2.21 | 5.46% | 28 |