Strategy Zoo / S0353
PriceMomentum_V0353
ARCHIVEDmomentumparameterchanged ret_20d threshold -0.1437 -> -0.2471
Fitness
0.6448
Generation
16
Complexity
3
Created
2026-09-18
Lineage
Parents (1)
changed ret_20d threshold -0.03 -> -0.1437
Children (0)
None
Strategy Logic (pseudocode)
# PriceMomentum_V0353 [momentum]
require regime.trend in ['DOWNTREND', 'UPTREND']
if flat and ret_20d > 0.05:
position = 1.0
if long and ret_20d < -0.2471:
position = 0.0 # exit to cashBacktest Metrics
| Metric | Train | Validation | Hidden Test | Full |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 26.5% | 80.1% | 43.2% | 40.5% |
| Total Return | 552.1% | 484.1% | 276.3% | 14658.6% |
| Sharpe | 0.84 | 1.36 | 1.04 | 1.02 |
| Sortino | 0.95 | 1.49 | 1.26 | 1.15 |
| Calmar | 0.43 | 1.93 | 1.13 | 0.66 |
| Volatility | 35.5% | 54.2% | 43.4% | 41.9% |
| Max DD | -61.7% | -41.6% | -38.3% | -61.7% |
| Win Rate | 48.6% | 54.5% | 66.7% | 54.1% |
| Avg Win | 29.5% | 51.4% | 18.9% | 32.0% |
| Avg Loss | -7.7% | -9.2% | -7.4% | -7.9% |
| Payoff | 3.81 | 5.59 | 2.54 | 4.03 |
| Expectancy | 10.3% | 23.9% | 10.1% | 13.6% |
| Profit Factor | 3.60 | 6.71 | 5.07 | 4.75 |
| Trades | 35 | 11 | 15 | 61 |
| Avg Holding Days | 31.1 | 39.4 | 29.1 | 32.9 |
| Turnover | 8.9 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| Exposure | 54.7% | 55.8% | 47.5% | 53.1% |
Growth of $100
PriceMomentum_V0353 vs TSLA Buy & Hold
PriceMomentum_V0353 TSLA Buy & HoldIn-sampleValidationHidden test
Growth of $100 · log scale · in-sample, validation and hidden-test segments are shaded separately and must not be compared as one out-of-sample track record.
Walk-Forward Years
year-by-year stability matters more than any single year
| Year | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 12.3% | 0.75 | -22.9% | 6 |
| 2017 | 37.7% | 1.19 | -19.5% | 2 |
| 2018 | -26.7% | -0.69 | -38.6% | 8 |
| 2019 | 9.6% | 0.47 | -35.8% | 4 |
| 2020 | 487.2% | 2.69 | -39.0% | 3 |
| 2021 | 27.5% | 0.79 | -30.9% | 2 |
| 2022 | -34.3% | -1.28 | -40.2% | 6 |
A robust strategy performs acceptably in most years rather than spectacularly in one — look for consistency across regimes, not a single outlier year.
Regime Performance
| Period | Regime | Days | Ann. Return | Sharpe | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hidden test | DOWNTREND | 267 | 69.6% | 1.47 | 51% |
| hidden test | EXPENSIVE | 83 | 132.6% | 1.92 | 93% |
| hidden test | EXTREME | 48 | 185.0% | 2.93 | 100% |
| hidden test | HIGH VOLATILITY | 254 | 106.8% | 1.69 | 55% |
| hidden test | LOW VOLATILITY | 429 | 39.2% | 1.36 | 43% |
| hidden test | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 248 | -7.9% | -0.20 | 48% |
| hidden test | NORMAL | 800 | 27.6% | 0.72 | 40% |
| hidden test | SIDEWAYS | 293 | -11.5% | -0.68 | 5% |
| hidden test | UPTREND | 371 | 72.1% | 1.35 | 79% |
| train | DOWNTREND | 518 | 5.3% | 0.19 | 42% |
| train | EXPENSIVE | 311 | 51.3% | 1.12 | 84% |
| train | EXTREME | 100 | 416.1% | 5.63 | 100% |
| train | HIGH VOLATILITY | 699 | 47.5% | 1.07 | 44% |
| train | LOW VOLATILITY | 745 | 37.5% | 1.45 | 62% |
| train | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 568 | -2.5% | -0.07 | 58% |
| train | NORMAL | 1,601 | 1.4% | 0.05 | 46% |
| train | SIDEWAYS | 592 | 0.6% | 0.04 | 6% |
| train | UPTREND | 902 | 62.8% | 1.34 | 94% |
| validation | DOWNTREND | 125 | 48.7% | 1.87 | 22% |
| validation | EXPENSIVE | 138 | 33.3% | 0.54 | 83% |
| validation | EXTREME | 144 | 357.0% | 4.17 | 92% |
| validation | HIGH VOLATILITY | 258 | 97.6% | 1.34 | 55% |
| validation | LOW VOLATILITY | 183 | 25.6% | 0.99 | 51% |
| validation | MEDIUM VOLATILITY | 315 | 81.7% | 1.69 | 59% |
| validation | NORMAL | 474 | -0.9% | -0.03 | 37% |
| validation | SIDEWAYS | 206 | -31.0% | -1.80 | 4% |
| validation | UPTREND | 425 | 131.5% | 1.89 | 91% |
Trades (full period)
62 trades
| Entry | Exit | Entry Px | Exit Px | Return | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | — | $362.86 | — | 5.31% | 20 | OPEN |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-01 | $435.79 | $415.88 | -1.63% | 2 | |
| 2026-04-21 | 2026-05-08 | $386.42 | $428.35 | 4.70% | 14 | |
| 2025-09-12 | 2026-01-13 | $395.94 | $447.20 | 21.50% | 85 | |
| 2025-09-04 | 2025-09-05 | $338.53 | $350.84 | 1.13% | 2 | |
| 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-11 | $322.27 | $339.03 | 2.84% | 3 | |
| 2025-07-31 | 2025-08-01 | $308.27 | $302.63 | -3.57% | 2 | |
| 2025-05-22 | 2025-06-06 | $341.04 | $295.14 | -15.09% | 11 | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-12 | $221.86 | $318.38 | 27.59% | 24 | |
| 2024-10-03 | 2025-02-24 | $240.66 | $330.53 | 35.38% | 97 | |
| 2024-09-04 | 2024-09-27 | $219.41 | $260.46 | 20.48% | 18 | |
| 2024-07-02 | 2024-08-08 | $231.26 | $198.84 | -8.80% | 27 | |
| 2024-02-26 | 2024-05-29 | $199.40 | $176.19 | -8.11% | 66 | |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-09-05 | $213.97 | $256.49 | 17.83% | 65 | |
| 2023-05-19 | 2023-05-31 | $180.14 | $203.93 | 13.50% | 8 | |
| 2023-01-25 | 2023-02-10 | $144.43 | $196.89 | 43.79% | 13 | |
| 2022-09-21 | 2022-09-23 | $300.80 | $275.33 | -6.71% | 3 | |
| 2022-08-16 | 2022-08-22 | $306.56 | $289.91 | -4.28% | 5 | |
| 2022-08-05 | 2022-08-08 | $288.17 | $290.42 | -6.82% | 2 | |
| 2022-06-22 | 2022-08-02 | $236.09 | $300.59 | 25.16% | 29 | |
| 2022-04-05 | 2022-04-27 | $363.75 | $293.84 | -23.64% | 16 | |
| 2021-08-24 | 2022-01-20 | $236.16 | $332.09 | 40.69% | 104 | |
| 2021-08-05 | 2021-08-23 | $238.21 | $235.43 | -4.50% | 13 | |
| 2020-11-19 | 2021-03-04 | $166.42 | $207.15 | 33.96% | 71 | |
| 2020-05-15 | 2020-11-13 | $53.28 | $136.17 | 155.77% | 128 | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-04-30 | $47.33 | $52.13 | 22.74% | 13 | |
| 2019-10-25 | 2020-03-13 | $21.88 | $36.44 | 86.69% | 96 | |
| 2019-10-21 | 2019-10-22 | $16.90 | $17.04 | -1.54% | 2 | |
| 2019-09-27 | 2019-10-15 | $16.14 | $17.19 | 5.72% | 13 | |
| 2019-06-18 | 2019-07-22 | $14.98 | $17.05 | 14.50% | 24 | |
| 2019-04-04 | 2019-05-23 | $17.85 | $13.03 | -34.09% | 35 | |
| 2018-11-29 | 2018-12-26 | $22.74 | $21.74 | -15.26% | 18 | |
| 2018-11-19 | 2018-11-20 | $23.56 | $23.17 | -0.44% | 2 | |
| 2018-10-04 | 2018-10-26 | $18.79 | $22.06 | 6.59% | 17 | |
| 2018-08-22 | 2018-08-28 | $21.44 | $20.79 | -1.02% | 5 | |
| 2018-08-03 | 2018-08-20 | $23.21 | $20.56 | -12.77% | 12 | |
| 2018-06-15 | 2018-07-05 | $23.88 | $20.61 | -13.27% | 14 | |
| 2018-04-27 | 2018-06-12 | $19.61 | $22.85 | 16.10% | 32 | |
| 2018-02-01 | 2018-02-06 | $23.28 | $22.26 | -6.17% | 4 | |
| 2017-09-18 | 2017-10-25 | $25.67 | $21.72 | -11.36% | 28 | |
| 2017-01-05 | 2017-08-24 | $15.12 | $23.53 | 55.10% | 161 | |
| 2016-12-14 | 2016-12-28 | $13.25 | $14.65 | 10.57% | 10 | |
| 2016-07-26 | 2016-08-30 | $15.30 | $14.09 | -6.63% | 26 | |
| 2016-06-08 | 2016-06-09 | $15.70 | $15.29 | 1.17% | 2 | |
| 2016-04-05 | 2016-06-02 | $17.03 | $14.60 | -11.28% | 42 | |
| 2016-03-24 | 2016-03-28 | $15.18 | $15.35 | 2.12% | 2 | |
| 2016-03-04 | 2016-03-21 | $13.40 | $15.89 | 18.67% | 12 | |
| 2015-12-03 | 2015-12-29 | $15.51 | $15.81 | -1.51% | 18 | |
| 2015-11-19 | 2015-12-02 | $14.79 | $15.47 | 7.08% | 9 | |
| 2015-05-11 | 2015-08-18 | $15.97 | $17.38 | 7.55% | 70 | |
| 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-01 | $15.50 | $15.07 | -2.12% | 3 | |
| 2015-04-23 | 2015-04-28 | $14.57 | $15.37 | 5.31% | 4 | |
| 2015-02-10 | 2015-04-14 | $14.42 | $13.83 | -3.73% | 44 | |
| 2014-06-23 | 2014-10-22 | $15.81 | $15.41 | 2.30% | 86 | |
| 2014-01-24 | 2014-05-08 | $11.64 | $11.91 | 10.71% | 73 | |
| 2012-12-18 | 2013-11-12 | $2.31 | $9.19 | 319.80% | 228 | |
| 2012-11-23 | 2012-12-14 | $2.14 | $2.25 | 3.30% | 16 | |
| 2012-10-03 | 2012-10-15 | $1.95 | $1.82 | -7.44% | 9 | |
| 2012-08-30 | 2012-09-18 | $1.89 | $2.09 | 14.31% | 13 | |
| 2012-02-23 | 2012-05-04 | $2.30 | $2.12 | -5.33% | 51 | |
| 2012-02-21 | 2012-02-22 | $2.30 | $2.28 | -1.54% | 2 | |
| 2012-01-04 | 2012-01-06 | $1.85 | $1.79 | -3.61% | 3 |